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Investing - the stock market and more


KenjiOgiwara
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1 hour ago, regular_john said:

I'm brand new to this investing/stock game. Trying to learn as I go by reading books like The Naked Trader, mucking about with virtual portfolios etc.

 

Bought me some Doge and turned a nice profit, or at least I would have done had I not completely misunderstood how to set a trailing stop the night of the SNL Musk show 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

So I'm now about 40% down on my initial investment, which hurts a touch but I'm hoping it will rebound when it goes live on coinbase in 6 weeks or so

 

(He said sounding like an utter novice)

 

Thankfully, I'm cautious by nature and not quite stupid enough to invest large sums as a novice, so my investments are with piddly amounts. Even if it all goes tits up, losses will be less than £200

I've got to be honest, buying crypto isn't investing it's gambling. There is nothing of value underpinning the 'value' of the investment, and as your post recognises, the price fluctuates wildly based on such utterly unpredictable events as 'does Elon Musk positively or negatively about it today'.

At the end of the day, people should do what they want with their money, but I don't think you should conceive of what you're doing as investing in the same way you would be buying equities or bonds.

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20 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I've got to be honest, buying crypto isn't investing it's gambling. There is nothing of value underpinning the 'value' of the investment, and as your post recognises, the price fluctuates wildly based on such utterly unpredictable events as 'does Elon Musk positively or negatively about it today'.

At the end of the day, people should do what they want with their money, but I don't think you should conceive of what you're doing as investing in the same way you would be buying equities or bonds.

All absolutely correct. It is gambling, which is why I have no intention of staying in crypto. I think I saw it as a dabble to see if I could turn a quick buck in the buildup to SNL.

 

I'm currently seeing it as a learning exercise about my own trading psychology - useful to learn how I respond when price goes up, down, crashes, surges etc.

 

Once it rebounds, which fingers crossed it will, I'll be out and moving on to something with a bit more stability.

 

If it doesn't rebound, it's not a huge loss as investment is so small

 

 

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4 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Nevermind that former post. 

Anyway. Got a company bonus recently and I just don't know what to do with it atm. Such a strange market to be in. 

1) I could pay down some mortgage, but what's the point when the interests are so low.

2) I could buy stocks, but everything is pretty expensive and I think a pullback is due.

3) I could save the cash, but the interests are shite.

I really don't know what to do.

Bit of luxury problem I guess, but it really isn't, as I'm not wealthy at all. 

You could buy coffee futures. 

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7 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Nevermind that former post. 

Anyway. Got a company bonus recently and I just don't know what to do with it atm. Such a strange market to be in. 

1) I could pay down some mortgage, but what's the point when the interests are so low.

2) I could buy stocks, but everything is pretty expensive and I think a pullback is due.

3) I could save the cash, but the interests are shite.

I really don't know what to do.

Bit of luxury problem I guess, but it really isn't, as I'm not wealthy at all. 

How about option 4?

Mutual/index funds? Invest into a passive fund that tracks an index (FTSE, S & P, etc) and your risk is spread then across a number of blue chip companies. 

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9 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Nevermind that former post. 

Anyway. Got a company bonus recently and I just don't know what to do with it atm. Such a strange market to be in. 

1) I could pay down some mortgage, but what's the point when the interests are so low.

2) I could buy stocks, but everything is pretty expensive and I think a pullback is due.

3) I could save the cash, but the interests are shite.

I really don't know what to do.

Bit of luxury problem I guess, but it really isn't, as I'm not wealthy at all. 

5) Stick it all on Red at the casino

6) Buy Crypto - see option no5

7) Blow it all on fast cars, women and drugs.

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17 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

I've got to be honest, buying crypto isn't investing it's gambling. 

I said this in a post I deleted cause I didn't want to take on that entire discussion as it's very subjective. But this. A 100% this. 

Investing (to me) is putting money or time ahead for future returns. That means you KNOW you will get returns, though you don't know exactly how big they will be.

Crypto is speculation, i.e. gambling. It's no different than buying any other asset where you just speculate on moron will come along and pay a bigger fee than you. Whether that's art, gold, comic books or crypto. 

It bothers me when people talk of crypto as investing. 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Xela said:

How about option 4?

Mutual/index funds? Invest into a passive fund that tracks an index (FTSE, S & P, etc) and your risk is spread then across a number of blue chip companies. 

Well I love index funds. I love ETFs and the like. But I don't think I will go there now. In fact I'm contemplating selling out some funds. 

1) I think the market got relatively little upside right now. I know I'm likely to be incorrect and the market can continue a long time, but for me it's just risk/reward, like I said on here a few months ago. I think it's very likely we're going to see a minor correction of 10-20% between now and October, and I think it's very likely we'll see a big market crash before 2024. Assuming above average returns of 10% anually, the downside > the upside. But it doesn't mean I won't invest, but I will invest less and more in specific stocks I feel is undervalued. 

2) My entire pension is in index funds, and I never touch that. I feel letting my pension ride the market, makes it sort of a hedge against doing what I want with my own savings. 

I'm by no means a professional, but when I look at the stock market performance the last 10 years and where we are now... I feel we are where people say in retrospect "how could we not see it coming". 

All indicators are flashing GTFO. Inflation is rising. The 10 year in the US is rising. Consumer spending is kicking on in all major US cities now, cause lock down is ending. The inflation won't stop. And the ONLY reason for the current pricing is the interest levels. And that's before we start debating new corporate taxes and what not. I don't know a lot about that, but I know it's not going to become a better environment for inflating value in the stock market.

When you look at companies like Tesla with their market cap. A company that sell cars that pretends they are a tech company. A company that only managed to get in the black, accounting wise, because they invested in bitcoin. There are so many companies that gives me dotcom crash vibes that it scares the shit out of me. 

Then again, what do I know. Sure there are som financial professionals on here who completely disagrees with me. 

The good thing about index funds regardless I guess, is that you will always get your money back.

Edited by KenjiOgiwara
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Posted (edited)

My completely uneducated prediction is that there will be a boom off the back of the end of the pandemic, there are reports that people have saved around £300b over the last 15 months or so.

That’ll get spent, then in 12-18 months time a biggish correction.

 

Edited by Genie
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34 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Well I love index funds. I love ETFs and the like. But I don't think I will go there now. In fact I'm contemplating selling out some funds. 

1) I think the market got relatively little upside right now. I know I'm likely to be incorrect and the market can continue a long time, but for me it's just risk/reward, like I said on here a few months ago. I think it's very likely we're going to see a minor correction of 10-20% between now and October, and I think it's very likely we'll see a big market crash before 2024. Assuming above average returns of 10% anually, the downside > the upside. But it doesn't mean I won't invest, but I will invest less and more in specific stocks I feel is undervalued. 

2) My entire pension is in index funds, and I never touch that. I feel letting my pension ride the market, makes it sort of a hedge against doing what I want with my own savings. 

I'm by no means a professional, but when I look at the stock market performance the last 10 years and where we are now... I feel we are where people say in retrospect "how could we not see it coming". 

All indicators are flashing GTFO. Inflation is rising. The 10 year in the US is rising. Consumer spending is kicking on in all major US cities now, cause lock down is ending. The inflation won't stop. And the ONLY reason for the current pricing is the interest levels. And that's before we start debating new corporate taxes and what not. I don't know a lot about that, but I know it's not going to become a better environment for inflating value in the stock market.

When you look at companies like Tesla with their market cap. A company that sell cars that pretends they are a tech company. A company that only managed to get in the black accounts wise, because they invested in bitcoin. There are so many companies that gives me dotcom crash vibes that it scares the shit out of me. 

Then again, what do I know. Sure there are som financial professionals on here who completely disagrees with me. 

The good thing about index funds regardless I guess, is that you will always get your money back.

That's a really interesting post, thanks.

I feel the same way as you in some ways, but I guess more focused on tech companies; I am trying to reduce the weighting of tech stocks on my portfolio at the moment (and they're not too big now, only around 15%, but I want to get them down to around 10% of the portfolio).

I think you're right that the market is very concerned about inflation, though I think actually *some* inflation would be a good thing in general, if not for the stock market. I'm trying to move further back in the production process toward raw materials and energy as my hedge against inflation, but I have absolutely no idea whether that will be right, just my guess at a course of action.

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I started putting money into a Target Date Fund earlier in the year. Not very exciting I know, but it suits me in terms of not stressing or bothering about it. I put a certain amount in each month. It’s with Vanguard, so the expenses are very cheap. 

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On 23/05/2021 at 13:34, regular_john said:

I'm brand new to this investing/stock game. Trying to learn as I go by reading books like The Naked Trader, mucking about with virtual portfolios etc.

 

Bought me some Doge and turned a nice profit, or at least I would have done had I not completely misunderstood how to set a trailing stop the night of the SNL Musk show 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

So I'm now about 40% down on my initial investment, which hurts a touch but I'm hoping it will rebound when it goes live on coinbase in 6 weeks or so

 

(He said sounding like an utter novice)

 

Thankfully, I'm cautious by nature and not quite stupid enough to invest large sums as a novice, so my investments are with piddly amounts. Even if it all goes tits up, losses will be less than £200

 

Don’t listen to anyone in this thread or any other internet thread. It’s opinion and nothing more. Everyone thinks they are right, very few ever are. 

Do your own DD, decide what you are trying to achieve, how you plan to achieve it, then do it and stick to it. 

Be patient, be brave and don’t panic.

  

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8 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Good advice but he's not going to listen to you now.

I did recognise the irony of my post, but knew someone would comment on it, so I let it ride! 

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26 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Been a good week for the meme stocks.  AMC flying right now.

GameStop up over 40% this week again. AMC flying as you say.

I hope it all comes off, I’m not even bothered about the ££, I can afford to lose what I’ve got riding on Meme stocks. I just want it to be a massive FU to the professionals and institutions that called it so wrong.

I’m still not 100% sure on it all myself, hence me only risking a relatively small amount of money, but if anyone thinks the likes of WSB are just a bunch of idiots that don’t know what they are doing, well they couldn’t be more wrong. 

 

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3 hours ago, Wainy316 said:

Been a good week for the meme stocks.  AMC flying right now.

AMC going mental now, 32% and climbing. 

I only put a few quid on it yesterday morning and I’m 50% up! 

 

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Anyone in to crypto? Really like the look of VET and XRP as a longer term punt. 
 

Pure gamble make me rich one is safemoon! 
 

edit: I know crypto is gambling but VET and XRP seem to have a bit more substance to them.

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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On 24/05/2021 at 09:14, Genie said:

My completely uneducated prediction is that there will be a boom off the back of the end of the pandemic, there are reports that people have saved around £300b over the last 15 months or so.

That’ll get spent, then in 12-18 months time a biggish correction.

 

Could a lot of the boom already be priced in though? Especially in US stocks.

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