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22 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

I was and still am in terms of acknowledging he stopped the rot and backwards trajectory and set us in the right direction.

In terms of Bruce, RDM, Wyness, Xia I am only wanting to relate back to them in terms of the legacy they left. A legacy which due to short term fixes meant we were unprepared for promotion and needed a huge turnover in playing personnel in the summer.  

As I and others have stated on numerous occasions a turnover of something approaching 30 players with 12 of those incoming always meant it was going to take time to gel and find some consistency as a team and for so many individuals, almost all of them new to this league, time to settle. We have given it 5 months and some are already on the head coaches back even though we sit outside the relegation zone in 17th a position that would be success come the end of the season.

Due to they leagacy they inherited, having produced a minor miracle in getting us promoted, it was always going to be a tough ask to make so many changes and keep us up but hopefully with a couple more additions Smith can achieve that goal. If he does it will be up there as just as fine an achievement as getting us promoted.

 

So do you think I disagree with any of that?, of course I don't.

I think some things have been lost in translation/Interpretation.

That's all I have ever been arguing for.

Edited by TRO
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40 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

100%

We're in such a healthy position it's unreal, especially compared to the last time we dropped.

Most, if not all, of our summer signings have increased in value.

We would undoubtedly lose Grealish, and probably McGinn and Mings (and who would blame them, they deserve to be playing in the Prem). But they would bring in ridiculous amounts. Grealish £60m minimum? McGinn £40-50m? Mings £35-40m?

I'd hazard a guess that Douglas Luiz would also leave, as I just get the feeling he thinks the second division is beneath him.

Aside from the financial side, we'd have the team and squad to make an immediate promotion attempt. I can't imagine the likes of Targett/ Konsa/ Engels/ Hourihane/ Nakamba/ Trez/ El Ghazi (etc) going anywhere.

Yeah but it doesn't matter how much money we bring in, if we can't spend it wisely. Chances are, we're not likely to be able to replace the quality we would lose from Mings, Mcginn and Grealish leaving. I also don't think Mcginn would go for anywhere near 50m, and Mings for 40m. 

I don't see the rest our summer signings actually increasing in value by much. They would probably cost around similar if we were to let then go. And really that value increase would've happened to anyone we purchased under 27 and hadn't played in the PL before. That PL experience is what bumps up their price.

I say you do seem far more optimistic of a successful promotion push first time running than I am. I think its pretty likely we don't succeed the first time as losing Grealish, Mcginn and Mings will hurt us massively and we probably won't be able to replace their combined quality. Plus I'm not very confident on the ability of the rest of our players to compete in the Championship. I'm not so sure Trez, Konsa, Engels, Nakamba and Hourihane(he'll be 30 by then) are good enough for a promotion chasing Champipnship side. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, TRO said:

So do you think I disagree with any of that?, of course I don't.

I think some things have been lost in translation/Interpretation.

That's all I ever ever been arguing for.

I know you agree with all of that. I just hope most of us realise what Bruce/RDM/Wyness/Xia left behind meant we were unprepared for promotion. That legacy then meant we needed the huge overhaul in the summer and that huge overhaul means it will take time to find some consistency.

Having got us promoted so quickly with a squad immediately needing so many changes and having to go for in most cases potential rather than proven top level quality, due to the quantity of players required, always meant that the bottom line was 17th this season should be seen as success.

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12 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Yeah but it doesn't matter how much money we bring in, if we can't spend it wisely. Chances are, we're not likely to be able to replace the quality we would lose from Mings, Mcginn and Grealish leaving. I also don't think Mcginn would go for anywhere near 50m, and Mings for 40m. 

I don't see the rest our summer signings actually increasing in value by much. They would probably cost around similar if we were to let then go. And really that value increase would've happened to anyone we purchased under 27 and hadn't played in the PL before. That PL experience is what bumps up their price.

I say you do seem far more optimistic of a successful promotion push first time running than I am. I think its pretty likely we don't succeed the first time as losing Grealish, Mcginn and Mings will hurt us massively and we probably won't be able to replace their combined quality. Plus I'm not very confident on the ability of the rest of our players to compete in the Championship. I'm not so sure Trez, Konsa, Engels, Nakamba and Hourihane(he'll be 30 by then) are good enough for a promotion chasing Champipnship side. 

How much do you think McGinn and Mings would go for then? Baring in mind the £20m we paid for Mings, that they’ve got long contracts and that our owners would probably be happy to keep them if suitable offers aren’t received.


I think our squad is more than capable of finishing in the play-off positions, even without Mings, McGinn and Grealish.

There would be very little ‘gelling’ to be done, like we’ve had to do in most Championship seasons.

Many of our players are either Championship quality or have shown potential to become Premier League players.

Then there’s always the option to add a loan or two, like how Baggies have taken Charlie Adam for a year.

Lastly, why do you not have faith in us to buy the right players? Basing it on this year’s business is unfair, as Smith’s team had to build a whole squad with the money that would normally pay for 3-4 Premier League players.

With regards to the Championship, look at Guilbert. He was bought for very little money, with the expectation that we wouldn’t get promoted, and he’s gone on to be a really good right back for us in the Prem.

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1 hour ago, Rob182 said:

100%

We're in such a healthy position it's unreal, especially compared to the last time we dropped.

Most, if not all, of our summer signings have increased in value.

We would undoubtedly lose Grealish, and probably McGinn and Mings (and who would blame them, they deserve to be playing in the Prem). But they would bring in ridiculous amounts. Grealish £60m minimum? McGinn £40-50m? Mings £35-40m?

I'd hazard a guess that Douglas Luiz would also leave, as I just get the feeling he thinks the second division is beneath him.

Aside from the financial side, we'd have the team and squad to make an immediate promotion attempt. I can't imagine the likes of Targett/ Konsa/ Engels/ Hourihane/ Nakamba/ Trez/ El Ghazi (etc) going anywhere.

I think you'd be surprised at the amount of sales tbh as I'm not sure all of the players you mentioned staying would want to stay or that we would keep them. You could add Heaton to your list as well. Then Elmo, Taylor, Lansbury, Kodjia and one or two others and the rebuild starts to look significantly more of a task. A task that wouldn't be completed in 12 months. 

I also think we will struggle immensely replacing those sold. To the point that we wont come straight back with the players left over. We'll still need to bring in serious quality in several positions which I think would take 12 months plus to find never mind bed in. Then factor in FFP and we won't be spending much either.  And say for instance we do come back up again, what makes anyone think that we'll be able to bring in other players that can influence the team like Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Heaton etc have to give us a better shot a the PL. Or upgrade those already staying who may not be able to cut it in the PL again.  

Personally...and this isn't a dig at you Rob, I cannot think of anything worse than going back down to that shit tip of a league. Losing Grealish and our other best players to start again in the same position as before but with a few quid more that cannot be spent. I don't fancy holding on to players that haven't pulled their weight this year and say, " don't worry, you can bring us back up next year". F*** that!! 

I think anyone thinking we can go down, lose Jack and co and still come back up the following year better off are thinking very wishfully.  

 

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20 hours ago, TRO said:

I think its like a jigsaw, its was incomplete and the failed promotion, threw up all kinds of things that was unfinished, only to find it was all built on sand, so he couldn,t replace who he wanted.....we couldn't pay the tax bill and we talk about centre backs, he never knew if he had the job and lost his family......come on Mark, you're better than that.....these were very unusual circumstances, not a normal summer.

also we can now see why there was a short term policy and we bought players according to the instructions.

Well Dean did fix it , and i am grateful to him for doing so,but he was there to do it, and was backed financially, so thats moot.

I have wrote enough on Bruce to fill a manuscript.....he didn't have owners like now, but look I am not going to change folks opinions and despite me being in the minority on here.....I feel as resolute on the things i have said about him and I repeat its him i have defended, not necessarily his football.

His football was not encouraging, but he brought in some good players that Dean himself has shown his gratitude for, that does not go unnoticed for me in our recovery.

I think i have said enough on this.

He was still able to bring in some of the best players in the league. Does Smith have that ability?

 

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5 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Personally...and this isn't a dig at you Rob, I cannot think of anything worse than going back down to that shit tip of a league. Losing Grealish and our other best players to start again in the same position as before but with a few quid more that cannot be spent. I don't fancy holding on to players that haven't pulled their weight this year and say, " don't worry, you can bring us back up next year". F*** that!! 

I think anyone thinking we can go down, lose Jack and co and still come back up the following year better off are thinking very wishfully.  

 

Superb post. 

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47 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

How much do you think McGinn and Mings would go for then? Baring in mind the £20m we paid for Mings, that they’ve got long contracts and that our owners would probably be happy to keep them if suitable offers aren’t received.


I think our squad is more than capable of finishing in the play-off positions, even without Mings, McGinn and Grealish.

There would be very little ‘gelling’ to be done, like we’ve had to do in most Championship seasons.

Many of our players are either Championship quality or have shown potential to become Premier League players.

Then there’s always the option to add a loan or two, like how Baggies have taken Charlie Adam for a year.

Lastly, why do you not have faith in us to buy the right players? Basing it on this year’s business is unfair, as Smith’s team had to build a whole squad with the money that would normally pay for 3-4 Premier League players.

With regards to the Championship, look at Guilbert. He was bought for very little money, with the expectation that we wouldn’t get promoted, and he’s gone on to be a really good right back for us in the Prem.

I still think we somewhat overpaid for Mings tbh. He played really well for us but he played really well for only half a season in the Championship. Prior to that he had several torrid seasons at Bouremouth. There are players in the Championship right now who've had several good seasons and are younger who would've cost around or less than what Mings cost for us. He only cost that much for us because Bournemouth knew how important he was to us, had any other club gone in for him he would've gone for less. And I know a lot might disagree with me, but I don't think he's been that good for us this season either. I don't think a PL club will be paying 35-40m for Mings, they'll look for better value elsewhere. So I think he sticks around for at least one season and if we don't get promoted back immediately we'll probably have to accept a cut price for him if he forces a move out. I think he'll be loyal to the club but he surely has ambitions for the England squad so he may force our hand in that case.

I don't see Mcginn going for anywhere near 50m, I'm sorry. If you have a look in the Mcginn thread you'll see a lot of people having been disappointed with his performances for about 2 months now. Sure he had a hot start but that start has disspated for a while now and he's gonna be injured for almost the end of the season I believe. He's not gonna have the chance to show what he can do in the PL much more in the event we go down after. 30-35m for Mcginn is probably more accurate. Again, same thing with Mings we could hold Mcginn at the club if we don't get the 50m bid but he could like Mings force the move out. 

Yes I think our squad is capable of finishing in the playoff positions. But there's a difference between being capable and being confident. Capable implies there's a good chance we might finish in those positions, but there's a decent chance we might not either. Keep in mind only 1 out of 4 playoff teams gets promoted. So lets say the probability we reach the playoffs is a solid 80%(I'm giving very good odds here). Multiply that by 1 out of 4 and you get 20%. That's only a 20% probability we get promoted our first season back through the playoffs. Adding the probability you think we'd finish in the automatic promotion spots which is gonna be considerably lower than 80%, you're gonna get a probability of less than 50% most likely. So overall, a less than 50% chance we get promoted back in our first season. Which goes back to my original statement. I think we probably won't get promoted the first season back, which fits with a less than 50% probability.

If we sell Mings, Mcginn and Grealish we would probably buy several players with that money. It would still take a lot of gelling. Furthermore, even if we didn't it doesn't really matter that much if we don't need to gel a lot if the squad isn't good enough regardless.

Its pretty much pure conjecture whether we'll get the right players or not but based on the current track record, I'm not very confident. I still think despite the fact that we had to replace a lot of players(which I still think is exaggerated, we really only needed to replace like Tuanzebe and Abraham, the rest were cannon fodder), he could've gotten done much better in the transfer market. Going for Wesley instead of putting his foot down for Maupay for example. Going hard on potential players instead of players who are actually good enough at the moment. The fact that he had to sign a lot of players doesn't mean we should just look away at the fact that a lot of his signings don't look like they're good enough for the first team and some might never be.

 

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42 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

How much do you think McGinn and Mings would go for then? Baring in mind the £20m we paid for Mings, that they’ve got long contracts and that our owners would probably be happy to keep them if suitable offers aren’t received.


I think our squad is more than capable of finishing in the play-off positions, even without Mings, McGinn and Grealish.

There would be very little ‘gelling’ to be done, like we’ve had to do in most Championship seasons.

Many of our players are either Championship quality or have shown potential to become Premier League players.

Then there’s always the option to add a loan or two, like how Baggies have taken Charlie Adam for a year.

Lastly, why do you not have faith in us to buy the right players? Basing it on this year’s business is unfair, as Smith’s team had to build a whole squad with the money that would normally pay for 3-4 Premier League players.

With regards to the Championship, look at Guilbert. He was bought for very little money, with the expectation that we wouldn’t get promoted, and he’s gone on to be a really good right back for us in the Prem.

I'm with you. 

We will be very competitive straight away if we go down. We certainly won't need to replace the entire squad like last time.

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48 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Personally...and this isn't a dig at you Rob, I cannot think of anything worse than going back down to that shit tip of a league. Losing Grealish and our other best players to start again in the same position as before but with a few quid more that cannot be spent. I don't fancy holding on to players that haven't pulled their weight this year and say, " don't worry, you can bring us back up next year". F*** that!! 

I think anyone thinking we can go down, lose Jack and co and still come back up the following year better off are thinking very wishfully.  

 

I actually don't fear going back down at all and I think it would be chalk and cheese compared to the last time. In 2016 we went down with 17 points. We were a shambles from top to bottom with an owner on the verge of selling the club. We had a number of players on huge wages with no relegation clauses in their contracts.

If we go down this time, assuming we don't have a complete collapse over the next 17 games, we will have gone down having made a fight of it. The club will have stable owners and I'd imagine all the players signed last summer had relegation clauses in their contracts in regards to wages.

We would almost certainly lose Grealish, Mings and McGinn but they would bring in comfortably 100 mill between them. All of the rest I'd be confident in saying would stay, assuming the manager wants them to, which would leave us with a team of Heaton, Guilbert, Konsa, Hause, Targett, Nakamba, Luiz, Hourihane, Trez, El Ghazi, Wesley. That team would comfortably compete for promotion and we would also have Engels, Jota, Elmo, Davis, Lansbury, Steer, Nyland, some new additions and hopefully a couple of youngsters breaking through including bringing O'Hare back.

I'd be supremely confident we'd bounce straight back up which is why although it wouldn't be ideal to go down I don't fear us dropping.

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1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

I actually don't fear going back down at all and I think it would be chalk and cheese compared to the last time. In 2016 we went down with 17 points. We were a shambles from top to bottom with an owner on the verge of selling the club. We had a number of players on huge wages with no relegation clauses in their contracts.

If we go down this time, assuming we don't have a complete collapse over the next 17 games, we will have gone down having made a fight of it. The club will have stable owners and I'd imagine all the players signed last summer had relegation clauses in their contracts in regards to wages.

We would almost certainly lose Grealish, Mings and McGinn but they would bring in comfortably 100 mill between them. All of the rest I'd be confident in saying would stay, assuming the manager wants them to, which would leave us with a team of Heaton, Guilbert, Konsa, Targett, Nakamba, Luiz, Hourihane, Trez, El Ghazi, Wesley. That team would comfortably compete for promotion and we would also have Engels,  Elmo, Davis, Lansbury, Steer, Nyland, some new additions and hopefully a couple of youngsters breaking through including bringing O'Hare back.

I'd be supremely confident we'd bounce straight back up which is why although it wouldn't be ideal to go down I don't fear us dropping.

Mark I like your confidence but I don't share it. I think your banking on us holding on to players we won't hold on to. Heaton will only stay due to the injury and his rehab which will leave him out for a good portion at the start of the season. As with Wes maybe?? Although I'm not sure of the time frames with their injuries so unsure on those tbf?? Luiz will be gone though I promise you. He won't be stuck in the championship. Then your hoping that PL or newly promoted clubs don't think about punting on one or two others like Ghazi, Targett potentially.  Then you could factor in that Lansbury will be done. Elmo will follow, as with Taylor, Chester etc. As they should be if we dropped back down imo. There would be no point in persisting with players that weren't good enough initially. We may then have to replace potentially between 5-10 players including our best in a team not good enough to cut it at the top level as it is. 

I'm not saying either for one minute that it's impossible as that would be stupid. What I'm saying is I think things won't be as cut and dried with the loss in quality we will have to endure. I'm not sure all the players left over will have the fight for a 46 game season getting volleyed everywhere by other players in the championship. Plus your then banking on us bringing in high quality on low fees because we wont be spending 10-15m on players if we go back down like the last time. We'll still have a forward line and midfield to rebuild at a minimum, and not for the Championship but to take us up and keep us there.  

I do agree that we will be in a more stable situation than the last time due to sales and the wage structure but I'm under no illusions that the changes to the squad will still need to be significant in the right way to bring us back up. That's not a cert in anyway.    

I don't fear us going down in anyway either. I'm lucky enough to have seen the best years this club has produced so am blessed I suppose. I just don't ever see going down as a great indicator the team are good enough to bounce straight back. In any clubs case. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

I think you'd be surprised at the amount of sales tbh as I'm not sure all of the players you mentioned staying would want to stay or that we would keep them. You could add Heaton to your list as well. Then Elmo, Taylor, Lansbury, Kodjia and one or two others and the rebuild starts to look significantly more of a task. A task that wouldn't be completed in 12 months. 

I also think we will struggle immensely replacing those sold. To the point that we wont come straight back with the players left over. We'll still need to bring in serious quality in several positions which I think would take 12 months plus to find never mind bed in. Then factor in FFP and we won't be spending much either.  And say for instance we do come back up again, what makes anyone think that we'll be able to bring in other players that can influence the team like Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Heaton etc have to give us a better shot a the PL. Or upgrade those already staying who may not be able to cut it in the PL again.  

Personally...and this isn't a dig at you Rob, I cannot think of anything worse than going back down to that shit tip of a league. Losing Grealish and our other best players to start again in the same position as before but with a few quid more that cannot be spent. I don't fancy holding on to players that haven't pulled their weight this year and say, " don't worry, you can bring us back up next year". F*** that!! 

I think anyone thinking we can go down, lose Jack and co and still come back up the following year better off are thinking very wishfully.  

Why would we lose Elmo, Taylor and Lansbury? If we go down then they’d be decent squad players so why would we sell them/ not renew contracts?

And why wouldn’t the majority of our squad stick together? You think that there will be Premier League teams looking to poach Targett, Konsa, Engels, Hause, Hourihane, Trez, El Ghazi and the rest of our squad that have played ‘okay’ at times and have seemed wanting at others.

 The only players from our whole squad that I can see attracting interest would be Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Luiz and Guilbert. Then we’d lose Kodjia to his contract expiry. I’m not sure that the rest of our squad have really done enough to play themselves into the thoughts of teams in top leagues. Hourihane obviously has his goal and assist tally, but even he splits opinion in our fanbase. 
 

I think people are having their perspectives skewed by the way that we got relegated last time. We had a terrible owner who didn’t know his arse from his elbow, and we had a squad of old, toxic players and young, foreign players that were cobbled together in a different eleven every week. This time round we seem like a happy unit, with plenty of club and country connections to build relationships across the squad.

Just have a look at some of the other ‘well run clubs’ and how many players they lose when they get relegated. Other than the standard 2-3 contract expiries and 2-3 ‘Premier League poached’ players, you often find that squads stick largely together.

It sounds like you’re mostly scared of losing Jack if we go down. Well, I hate to break it to you, but even if we stay up, we’ve probably only got another year or two of him to enjoy before he rightly gets a move to a Top 4 club. Life after Jack won’t be the end.

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1 minute ago, Rob182 said:

Why would we lose Elmo, Taylor and Lansbury? If we go down then they’d be decent squad players so why would we sell them/ not renew contracts?

And why wouldn’t the majority of our squad stick together? You think that there will be Premier League teams looking to poach Targett, Konsa, Engels, Hause, Hourihane, Trez, El Ghazi and the rest of our squad that have played ‘okay’ at times and have seemed wanting at others.

 The only players from our whole squad that I can see attracting interest would be Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Luiz and Guilbert. Then we’d lose Kodjia to his contract expiry. I’m not sure that the rest of our squad have really done enough to play themselves into the thoughts of teams in top leagues. Hourihane obviously has his goal and assist tally, but even he splits opinion in our fanbase. 
 

I think people are having their perspectives skewed by the way that we got relegated last time. We had a terrible owner who didn’t know his arse from his elbow, and we had a squad of old, toxic players and young, foreign players that were cobbled together in a different eleven every week. This time round we seem like a happy unit, with plenty of club and country connections to build relationships across the squad.

Just have a look at some of the other ‘well run clubs’ and how many players they lose when they get relegated. Other than the standard 2-3 contract expiries and 2-3 ‘Premier League poached’ players, you often find that squads stick largely together.

It sounds like you’re mostly scared of losing Jack if we go down. Well, I hate to break it to you, but even if we stay up, we’ve probably only got another year or two of him to enjoy before he rightly gets a move to a Top 4 club. Life after Jack won’t be the end.

 I'm mid forties. I've already mentioned Jack leaving in previous posts so don't try throwing that baby talk my way.

And why wouldn't other players leave? Why wouldn't the likes of Ghazi, Targett, Guilbert, or any of the others you've mentioned not get opportunities back in the PL? Why would you want to keep the likes of Elmo, Lansbury, Taylor? What for, their not good enough and will all be partially responsible if we do go back down.   

The thing is people aren't necessarily skewed by previous owner or management. What people understand is the realisation that any squad incapable of keeping us up, to then potentially lose several of it's best players will still have significant changes to make in order to not only challenge to come back up, but be able to then stay up. 

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4 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Yeah but it doesn't matter how much money we bring in, if we can't spend it wisely. Chances are, we're not likely to be able to replace the quality we would lose from Mings, Mcginn and Grealish leaving. I also don't think Mcginn would go for anywhere near 50m, and Mings for 40m. 

I don't see the rest our summer signings actually increasing in value by much. They would probably cost around similar if we were to let then go. And really that value increase would've happened to anyone we purchased under 27 and hadn't played in the PL before. That PL experience is what bumps up their price.

I say you do seem far more optimistic of a successful promotion push first time running than I am. I think its pretty likely we don't succeed the first time as losing Grealish, Mcginn and Mings will hurt us massively and we probably won't be able to replace their combined quality. Plus I'm not very confident on the ability of the rest of our players to compete in the Championship. I'm not so sure Trez, Konsa, Engels, Nakamba and Hourihane(he'll be 30 by then) are good enough for a promotion chasing Champipnship side. 

 

 

Grealish 60m , Mings 30m , McGinn £30m

Grealish is the only one we can’t replace

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1 hour ago, Dave-R said:

Completely undeserved' - Aston Villa tipped to make shock John Terry decision

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/completely-undeserved-aston-villa-tipped-17523301

Clickbait. Collymore trying to make himself feel important by speculating that the club could sack Smith if things go badly and install JT as manager. 

 

Nothing article from a nothing pundit, speculating about something that is highly unlikely, but literally saying nothing of any substance.

 

Now I have clicked on a Birmingham Mail article (you ba****d). I need to go and take a shower 

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I was a bit miffed when DS got the new contract, the next few months will seriously show us where he is as a manager, the injury list is horrendous if he can sign the right bodies and keep us in the league he deserves a war kitty like never before next summer and would prove very deserving of that new contract.

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I find it weird when people say bad luck (injuries, tough fixture schedule, etc) put extra pressure on a manager. Surely they give the manager a chance to show how good he is. If you expect to get nothing out of a game but nick a point, that works in the manager’s favour surely?

I do think the total lack of options in attack has made things tough for Dean, but no sensible fan is blaming him for that situation, and I doubt Purslow is either.

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