Dean Smith

[terrytini]

On 18/08/2019 at 20:19, DCJonah said:

After a game in which 2 mistakes cost us, there is no way Smith will be replacing 50% of the back 4 to risk new mistakes. 

I think until we pick up some points or things start to go terrible, guilbert and targett will be waiting. 

I certainly hope so. If he were to change them it’d be the first time he’d have puzzled me.

[terrytini]

Sometimes it almost reads that we have fans who think we need to totally eliminate having goals scored against us

Of course mistakes have led to goals...in every team, in every game , since ever.

I started the season thinking it didn’t need saying, but I think it does....we are going to lose lots and lots ! And concede lots ! And make lots of mistakes !

Even if we end up having a really good Season we could easily finish up having conceded 60 or 70 goals, and suffering 15/20 defeats.

Anyone who thinks that without Jacks dalliance on the ball, or Heatons rush of blood, or whatever, we’d have conceded Zero is being unrealistic, in my view.

We are going to concede 4/5 goals or so every three games or so....may aswell get used to it !......and anything better is a bonus.

 

 

[DCJonah]

12 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Sometimes it almost reads that we have fans who think we need to totally eliminate having goals scored against us

Of course mistakes have led to goals...in every team, in every game , since ever.

I started the season thinking it didn’t need saying, but I think it does....we are going to lose lots and lots ! And concede lots ! And make lots of mistakes !

Even if we end up having a really good Season we could easily finish up having conceded 60 or 70 goals, and suffering 15/20 defeats.

Anyone who thinks that without Jacks dalliance on the ball, or Heatons rush of blood, or whatever, we’d have conceded Zero is being unrealistic, in my view.

We are going to concede 4/5 goals or so every three games or so....may aswell get used to it !......and anything better is a bonus.

 

 

Conceding doesn't worry me too much. 

Its the scoring side. One of our front 3 will need to score consistently and just can't see if from the first 2 games. 

 

[terrytini]

Just now, DCJonah said:

Conceding doesn't worry me too much. 

Its the scoring side. One of our front 3 will need to score consistently and just can't see if from the first 2 games. 

 

Leaving aside my view that 2 games is too few and too soon to judge anything ......I’m not sure I agree with your analysis....(although I accept its all conjecture )...

we probably hope to score 40 goals or so....let’s say set pieces / defenders are 5 or 6.

Then free kicks and penalties, 2 or 3. 

Leaves 30 goals from Midfield/ forwards.

If ( IF....we’ve no idea yet would you agree ?) ...If, Wes gets 8.

Leaves 22/25 from Trezuget, El Ghazi, McGinn, Jack, Luiz, ( based on recent selection)....that’s 4 or 5 each.

 I think we’ve bought wisely, and will score enough.

I also think that if we are below Par come January we will sign a striker.

 

[DCJonah]

4 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Leaving aside my view that 2 games is too few and too soon to judge anything ......I’m not sure I agree with your analysis....(although I accept its all conjecture )...

we probably hope to score 40 goals or so....let’s say set pieces / defenders are 5 or 6.

Then free kicks and penalties, 2 or 3. 

Leaves 30 goals from Midfield/ forwards.

If ( IF....we’ve no idea yet would you agree ?) ...If, Wes gets 8.

Leaves 22/25 from Trezuget, El Ghazi, McGinn, Jack, Luiz, ( based on recent selection)....that’s 4 or 5 each.

 I think we’ve bought wisely, and will score enough.

I also think that if we are below Par come January we will sign a striker.

 

Don't disagree with that.

And i'd imagine doing that will see us in a relegation battle most of the season. Which again is fine, 17th is major success. 

But its a fine margin. If wes flops completely or others don't step up it could be a big issue for us. 

[Tomaszk]

6 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Leaving aside my view that 2 games is too few and too soon to judge anything ......I’m not sure I agree with your analysis....(although I accept its all conjecture )...

we probably hope to score 40 goals or so....let’s say set pieces / defenders are 5 or 6.

Then free kicks and penalties, 2 or 3. 

Leaves 30 goals from Midfield/ forwards.

If ( IF....we’ve no idea yet would you agree ?) ...If, Wes gets 8.

Leaves 22/25 from Trezuget, El Ghazi, McGinn, Jack, Luiz, ( based on recent selection)....that’s 4 or 5 each.

 I think we’ve bought wisely, and will score enough.

I also think that if we are below Par come January we will sign a striker.

 

It'll be a lot easier to attract a decent forward/winger if we aren't rock bottom. In the mix, and we can maybe get a few more bodies in.

[terrytini]

So, if anyone is bothering to keep track

In my view ( and broadly in line with other teams in other seasons)

We will Win 10/12. We will lose 20 odd.

We will score 40 odd, and concede 60 plus.

And finish 12-16

A bit of luck in our favour, we will feel safe by about late March, April........a bit against, against, 3 or 4 points less, a season long relegation fight.

And those that accept that will probably enjoy the whole thing a lot more than those who don’t !

[terrytini]

4 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Don't disagree with that.

And i'd imagine doing that will see us in a relegation battle most of the season. Which again is fine, 17th is major success. 

But its a fine margin. If wes flops completely or others don't step up it could be a big issue for us. 

Yes I think it’s fair to call it a relegation battle....as it is for at least 12 sides.

Season before last 44 Points for 10th...that’s a season long relegation fight.

Season before that 46 Points for 8th, ditto.

I don’t think” relegation battle “ is really a negative term, it’s just what most teams are doing.

And yes it’s a fine margin....but so is Andy Carrol, Adams Traore, Jordan Ayew, etc....I’m not worried !

[terrytini]

8 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Don't disagree with that.

And i'd imagine doing that will see us in a relegation battle most of the season. Which again is fine, 17th is major success. 

But its a fine margin. If wes flops completely or others don't step up it could be a big issue for us. 

Wes could flop....could JK score 8 ? I think he could.

Must admit I’m loving it so far, and excited to see us develop ( which I think we will).

[terrytini]

Why I’m not concerned at those numbers....as I think the balance Deano has brought in achieves the following....

Last few seasons

Everton....Scored 44 conceded 58.....  8th

West Ham...47./.64.....11th

Stoke..41/.55......9th, also 36/53....  14 th

Newcastle 43/59....10th

Norwich 41/58 ... 11 th

and of course us, under Houllier, felt like a Season long relegation battle but finished 9th, having Won just 12 games and scored 48 conceding 59.

PS .....quoted outcomes are to illustrate my point...by definition they are selected, some may even say misleading...as other sides have scored more, conceeded less, and got relegated. But all those figures are available to those wishing to make a different point to mine........phew, that should do it....)

Edited August 20, 2019 by terrytini
PS added to prevent bloodshed !

[sheepyvillian]

2 hours ago, terrytini said:

Because he’d coached them for more than 5 minutes would be my guess as to why

Ponder this question, I'm a Deano fan so don't get me wrong. Would he have brought a Wesley type player whilst at Brentford ?

[terrytini]

33 minutes ago, sheepyvillian said:

Ponder this question, I'm a Deano fan so don't get me wrong. Would he have brought a Wesley type player whilst at Brentford ?

No.

[sheepyvillian]

Just now, terrytini said:

No.

Come on, Terry, educate me.

[terrytini]

1 hour ago, sheepyvillian said:

Come on, Terry, educate me.

That’s all I’ve got... sorry

[Lerner's Driver]

12 hours ago, terrytini said:

So, if anyone is bothering to keep track

In my view ( and broadly in line with other teams in other seasons)

We will Win 10/12. We will lose 20 odd.

We will score 40 odd, and concede 60 plus.

And finish 12-16

A bit of luck in our favour, we will feel safe by about late March, April........a bit against, against, 3 or 4 points less, a season long relegation fight.

And those that accept that will probably enjoy the whole thing a lot more than those who don’t !

I frequently enjoy the realistic optimism of your posts Terry and mostly agree. In your opinion, how many consecutive losses could we sustain before your optimism started to wane?

[terrytini]

8 hours ago, Lerner's Driver said:

I frequently enjoy the realistic optimism of your posts Terry and mostly agree. In your opinion, how many consecutive losses could we sustain before your optimism started to wane?

Ok it’s a fair question !

Key would still be performance.

Consecutive poor performances would worry me much more than consecutive defeats.

But I guess around 6/7 consecutive defeats- if allied to some below par performances ( which I think it’s fair to think they would be, one couldn’t argue that many defeats were luck/ tactics/ bedding in)...would most likely dent my optimism.

Only dent though.

I don’t think that many consecutive defeats is particularly unlikely, nor intrinsically harmful. 

It won’t  be how many we lose in a row that matters.

I personally wouldn’t view it that way anyway.

If we are, after all, better than 6 /8 sides in this League it may well not fully show until the final third of the Season.

Its very common for - especially mid table teams - to front load or back load their points.

So I would look more at say 12/12/16 points across each third of the season.

Say 13/12/13 games.

So I’m looking for 12 Points from our first 13 games.

So, back to your point, if we Won 4 of those we could lose 9. Irrelevant whether that’s 9 in a row or not.

Hence 2 defeats. Or 3 by Friday, or 4 by next week etc, won’t bother me much if we look ok.

Edited August 21, 2019 by terrytini

[Pimlico_Villa]

1 hour ago, terrytini said:

Ok it’s a fair question !

Key would still be performance.

Consecutive poor performances would worry me much more than consecutive defeats.

But I guess around 6/7 consecutive defeats- if allied to some below par performances ( which I think it’s fair to think they would be, one couldn’t argue that many defeats were luck/ tactics/ bedding in)...would most likely dent my optimism.

Only dent though.

I don’t think that many consecutive defeats is particularly unlikely, nor intrinsically harmful. 

It won’t  be how many we lose in a row that matters.

I personally wouldn’t view it that way anyway.

If we are, after all, better than 6 /8 sides in this League it may well not fully show until the final third of the Season.

Its very common for - especially mid table teams - to front load or back load their points.

So I would look more at say 12/12/16 points across each third of the season.

Say 13/12/13 games.

So I’m looking for 12 Points from our first 13 games.

So, back to your point, if we Won 4 of those we could lose 9. Irrelevant whether that’s 9 in a row or not.

Hence 2 defeats. Or 3 by Friday, or 4 by next week etc, won’t bother me much if we look ok.

I struggle with the logic there. If we are playing well but still  losing, doesn't that make it a bit futile?

[terrytini]

22 minutes ago, Pimlico_Villa said:

I struggle with the logic there. If we are playing well but still  losing, doesn't that make it a bit futile?

My logic is, however well we play I expect to lose 20 odd games. But I’d feel happier ( which was your question...the optimism bit ?) ....If, whilst losing those games, we still played well....because that’s what will help Win us the 10/12 I want us to Win.

I don’t really know how to explain it.

Heres another go !( these assertions as to how it will pan out are simply my views of course)...

There are 14/18 or so games that will “matter”....in as much as that’s where our Points will come from. Group A.

The other 20/25 whatever don’t matter, in as much as the result won’t matter. They matter from a performance point of view though ( and from an entertainment view). Group B.

I don’t know which 14/18 will matter. Usually it will be those against the bottom Clubs, but not always....under the “terrytini” system you only find out at full time.

So these first two ? Spurs and Bournemouth. They didn’t matter. They are now in Group B. But the performances mattered. Whether I saw good play, good spirit, good tactics ( I did). And that matters because (a) it costs a lot of time and effort so it’s good to have something good from each game, and (b) if our performances are no good I won’t get what I want in Group A.

I don’t expect everyone to see it that way, but that’s my view. Hence, before Fridays game ( or any game ) I won’t be posting “ must win” , “ these are the games we should be winning “ etc.......and after the game I won’t fret if we’ve lost, but will be overjoyed if it turns out to have been a “ Group A”.

What I am certain of, is that this way of thinking, and others like it that others may have,  makes it far easier to enjoy the ride.

[terrytini]

I guess it really boils down to this.

Decide how many games you are ok with us losing. 

There is your expectation level.

Dont try to anticipate WHICH games “ should” be Wins/ Defeats..

Then, results wise, look at the whole, not each individual game.

Performance wise, look at the game..

.........or, don’t.....it’s not up to me is it !!!

 

 

[Lord Willard]

No press conference for tomorrow?