Dean Smith

[briny_ear]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

So 8 teams in the history of the premier league. 

Like I said, it's not hard to understand the point. You're being pedantic AF to make an issue out of it.

Go on, at least  have the grace to admit that you are “very surprised” which you said you would be if there were many, if any, clubs who went down with 10 wins. 

I genuinely don’t know what “point” you think I am struggling to grasp. First it was that we only need 10 wins - not true; then that we only need 10 wins with some draws - not entirely true either; and the subtext seems to be it’s OK to lose to Tottenham from a winning position. Well that’s not true in my book either. 

[DaveAV1]

25 minutes ago, Dave-R said:

It certainly would of been a fantastic thing if Smith and CO had pulled of the win.

My Son who isn't a Villa Fan for just over 70 mins was like, Dad, spurs just can't do anything to Villas defence, he was loving everything they were throwing at us and so we're I, it was a sight to see to be honest.

Don't think we deserved the scoreline but credit to spurs at the rate they were on top of us, was only a matter of time before they scored and once they did I knew more were coming.

We should of just gone full out Defensive when second half was clear we were playing block the ball.

Eriksen was the big difference, until he came on a lot of their shots were long range, they weren’t breaking us down. 

[Stephen_Evans]

3 hours ago, briny_ear said:

I really should be doing some work on my finances but I just took some time out to look a bit further back. Starting at 1995-6 when the pl was reduced to its present 20 clubs, the list is as follows:

1996-7 Sunderland 10-10-18 (Middlesborough also went down on 10-12-16 but had 3 points deducted for an offence so don't get counted)

1997-8 Barnsley 10-5-23

2002-3 West Ham 10-12-16

2006-7 Sheff U 10-8-20

2007-8 Reading 10-6-22

2010-11 Blackpool 10-9-19

2011-12 Bolton 10-6-22

2018-19 Cardiff 10-4-24

It is true that in recent seasons the premier league has become less competitive, and relegated clubs have tended to get lower points. But last season shows it can still happen

 

Seeing these stats reminds me that it was somewhat miraculous that Villa stayed up with only 7 wins in 2011/12 under McLeish, although there a lot of draws!

[DaveAV1]

1 minute ago, Stephen_Evans said:

Seeing these stats reminds me that it was somewhat miraculous that Villa stayed up with only 7 wins in 2011/12 under McLeish, although there a lot of draws!

Blimey was it that low? Incredible, sad days indeed.

[Vive_La_Villa]

6 minutes ago, Stephen_Evans said:

Seeing these stats reminds me that it was somewhat miraculous that Villa stayed up with only 7 wins in 2011/12 under McLeish, although there a lot of draws!

Would have been better off going down and coming back up a few years later. The year we finally got relegated was the year before the tv money really exploded. Was the worst possible time. 

[Stevo985]

37 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

Go on, at least  have the grace to admit that you are “very surprised” which you said you would be if there were many, if any, clubs who went down with 10 wins. 

There aren't many. But I already owned up and took back that comment. Twice in fact.

 

37 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

I genuinely don’t know what “point” you think I am struggling to grasp. First it was that we only need 10 wins - not true; then that we only need 10 wins with some draws - not entirely true either; 

 

The only point was that it was very obvious that Stefan meant that if we aim for 10 wins we'll stay up. Yes you're right, technically we could get 10 wins and still go down so if you're being pedantic then that's fine, but it was obvious what he meant.

Just like if someone said we need to get 40 points you could pedantically point out that 40 points doesn't necessarily mean you'll stay up. But it would be very obvious what the original poster meant.

40 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

and the subtext seems to be it’s OK to lose to Tottenham from a winning position. Well that’s not true in my book either. 

The point about Spurs was that our season won't be defined by us losing away at one of the best teams in the country.

 

I can't believe I've had to explain all that

[terrytini]

7 hours ago, briny_ear said:

I wonder if a problem with this post is in fact context?

When you look at those two votes, the results for Smith v Spurs (so far) are:

Very Good - 3 (1.18%)

Good - 131 (51.57%)

Average - 110 (43.31%)

Poor - 10 (3.94%)

Very Poor - 0 (0%)

By contrast, Bruce’s ratings for Sheff U away were:

Very Good - 0 (0%)

Good - 0 (0%)

Average - 2 (2.02%)

Poor - 5 (5.05%)

Very Poor - 92 (92.93%)

So, no, I don’t think anyone could reasonably argue that people were rating Dean Smith’s performance yesterday as worse than Bruce’s against Sheff U. The vote was a massive thumbs up for Smith compared with a massive  thumbs down for Bruce!

Even if for some bizarre reason you just chose to compare only the number of votes for “Poor”, Bruce got a higher percentage than Smith in that category.

Expectations are of course higher, and rightly so. We are in a higher league and have just spent well over £100m on new squad players. I suspect most people agree with Smith's own assessment, that we started well but fell away disappointingly in the second half, and that needs to be worked on.

 

I don’t think you grasped my point.

I am well aware of other Votes, total votes, and percentage votes.

I do agree expectations are higher, which was my point. However, they are not higher amongst all of us - we don’t all see spending £100m in the same way. 

I have lower expectations of Smith this season, than I had of Bruce last season.

Those that feel as I do will naturally be less critical than those that feel as you do. 

[terrytini]

6 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

This might be the most selective use of stats I've ever seen  

All stats are selective, there will always be extra stats, different stats, stats giving one context, stats giving another.

100% of them ....

I make no apology for those in that post. ( not that you have suggested I should).

I actually looked at many previous games and could’ve used all sorts of similar figures to illustrate my point, which is that to some fans, what a Smith did yesterday was equivalent to what Bruce did at Sheffield.

I wasn’t providing statistical analysis.

 

 

[Stevo985]

2 minutes ago, terrytini said:

All stats are selective, there will always be extra stats, different stats, stats giving one context, stats giving another.

100% of them ....

I make no apology for those in that post. ( not that you have suggested I should).

I actually looked at many previous games and could’ve used all sorts of similar figures to illustrate my point, which is that to some fans, what a Smith did yesterday was equivalent to what Bruce did at Sheffield.

I wasn’t providing statistical analysis.

 

 

Unless the exact same fans made the "poor" votes, it doesn't demonstrate that at all.

Like I said, it's a hugely selective use of stats.

[useless]

We lost to Spurs nothing anyone can do about it, just have top hope we can do better in the next game.

[terrytini]

4 hours ago, briny_ear said:

I really should be doing some work on my finances but I just took some time out to look a bit further back. Starting at 1995-6 when the pl was reduced to its present 20 clubs, the list is as follows:

1996-7 Sunderland 10-10-18 (Middlesborough also went down on 10-12-16 but had 3 points deducted for an offence so don't get counted)

1997-8 Barnsley 10-5-23

2002-3 West Ham 10-12-16

2006-7 Sheff U 10-8-20

2007-8 Reading 10-6-22

2010-11 Blackpool 10-9-19

2011-12 Bolton 10-6-22

2018-19 Cardiff 10-4-24

It is true that in recent seasons the premier league has become less competitive, and relegated clubs have tended to get lower points. But last season shows it can still happen

 

Surely you have to go back through every season  ?

Woukdnt want you being selective just to conveniently make your point

[terrytini]

9 minutes ago, weedman said:

You posted was that losing to Sheff U only got 5 poor votes, whereas losing to Spurs got 10 poor votes, meaning people are more disappointed losing to Spurs than they were losing to Sheff U, proving expectations are too high. That's your post in your context.

However you completely ignore the fact that the reason so few people voted Poor for the Sheff U game was because everyone (92) voted the managers performance as Very Poor, compared to no-one voting that way Vs Spurs

Your stats only show that people were almost universally livid with the performance Vs Sheff U, whereas only a handful of people were disappointed with our performance V Spurs, with the overwhelming majority being at worst "OK" with it. Your stats show nothing and by presenting them in a deliberately misleading way you cannot complain about people considering it "fake news"

See that bit right there.

Thats your problem.

You ascribed a meaning, then criticised me for ascribing it.

[thunderball]

Set the team up well for the Spurs game. Solid display all things considered. A few grumbled about the team selection, but unsurprisingly the management team got it pretty much right.

[hippo]

On a lighter note , but important none the less ..do Smith and Heaton share the same barber ?

[terrytini]

8 minutes ago, hippo said:

On a lighter note , but important none the less ..do Smith and Heaton share the same barber ?

Blind chap, lives near me.

[terrytini]

If anyone wants more info on stats I’m covering the Binomial Theory, Hypergeometric, and Poisson Theory, in a forthcoming essay.

Also Null hypothesis, the true problems with reliance on Standard Deviation, and the use of the outer limits of the Normal Distribution for control purposes.

Sadly won’t have time to cover “n-1” and it’s use in sampling theory and practice, nor the use of Confidence levels in result prediction.

Very very happy for a comprehensive chat about Statistics with anybody that thinks it’s essential before posting things with numbers in.

[Ponky]

Well, either way I suspect Dean will be sleeping more soundly tonight than Frank Lampard. 

[Enda]

3 hours ago, terrytini said:

If anyone wants more info on stats I’m covering the Binomial Theory, Hypergeometric, and Poisson Theory, in a forthcoming essay.

Also Null hypothesis, the true problems with reliance on Standard Deviation, and the use of the outer limits of the Normal Distribution for control purposes.

Sadly won’t have time to cover “n-1” and it’s use in sampling theory and practice, nor the use of Confidence levels in result prediction.

Very very happy for a comprehensive chat about Statistics with anybody that thinks it’s essential before posting things with numbers in.

Hi terry. The results deriving from yer standard Central Limit Theorem say most distributions can be asymptotically approximated (infinite samples) with the two primary moments of the Normal, so would be interested in your views on the outer limits in finite samples. Also for the n-1 result this almost always comes from the the Chi-squared-distributed variance so would be interested in views on Conor Hourihane.

[Villarocker]

Wow, there's some unhappy people here and after just one game. 

I hope we beat Bournemouth! 

[KenjiOgiwara]

26 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Wow, there's some unhappy people here and after just one game. 

I hope we beat Bournemouth! 

It's bonkers.

We got a brand new team, just promoted. Met one of the best sides in Europe and the league we are in. Had a lead, but collapsed the last 20 minutes. You would think they would be happy and have realistic expectations, but no. It's literally 4-5 months ago we were playing the likes of Bolton, Blackburn and Bristol City. 

We will need time to develop relations, get some confidence, bed in new players and find our first eleven. 

I was hoping after the poor run last year, where we ended up 10 games unbeaten that people would remember and have some patience. Seems that lasted about one summer and first match. 

Fortunately I don't think the whine on here represents the majority of the fans at Villa Park. 

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by KenjiOgiwara