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Dean Smith


Demitri_C

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9 hours ago, TRO said:

I understand a draw is divided up as half a win.

 

Don’t think that’s right - and is one of the reasons win % is a bit dodgy. Points per game is a better stat (but even then, depends on context, as others have said).

In the end, how do we compare Gerrard at Rangers with Dyche at Burnley? It’s just not possible with stats, is it? IMO Dyche is the better manager, but I have no way of proving it really until Gerrard has a crack at a PL side.

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16 hours ago, TRO said:

Winning games is hard, who is under estimating that?

There are currently 7 managers who exceed a 50% win ratio in the Premier league at their respective clubs, since they've been there....and 3 are currently in the bottom half of the league.

2 exceed 60%.

so we know what we are up against.

Who are they and what is the context?

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21 minutes ago, TheStagMan said:

I may have missed something. Why is there a magical 50% win ratio target for Smith and where did this come from?

There isn’t, because that is a ridiculous target, and I’d imagine billionaires are pretty good at spotting unrealistic targets.

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8 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Don’t think that’s right - and is one of the reasons win % is a bit dodgy. Points per game is a better stat (but even then, depends on context, as others have said).

In the end, how do we compare Gerrard at Rangers with Dyche at Burnley? It’s just not possible with stats, is it? IMO Dyche is the better manager, but I have no way of proving it really until Gerrard has a crack at a PL side.

Thats the method much more learned people than me use, as I understand it.

Like most things in life stats in isolation are dodgy......you have to look at other KPI's in conjuction.

I agree, you can't judge a manager on win ratio's alone.....having said that there is a correlation that indicates the best managers determined by other factors usually have the best win ratio's....make of that what you will..

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1 hour ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Who are they and what is the context?

Fair question.

Thomas Tuchel and Pep exceed 60%

Arteta,Biesla,Rodgers,OGS,Klopp exceed 50%

However I must apologise for Deans figures, I picked up from Wikepedia, which I think included cup games....after doing my own calculation his ratio for league games only, is 46%, which is much more encouraging.

His first season was 53% in the championship

second was was 31% in the Prem

Third was 51% last season....very good.

so, he is doing ok in my book, as you expect a dip in a consolidating season.

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Am I the only one thinking this could be a dangerous season for Dean at Villa? He has lost his best player, he has had a nightmare of a pre-season with covid and staff leaving. It is probably going to be mid October before he will have a full squad to choose from and by that time if we don't get results the pressure will be on. Add to that if the team doesn't perform them there will be clubs after our better players and whose to say they will want to stay with a struggling club? I just feel that Dean can't catch a break at the moment. I'm sure he has the backing of the owners, and most of the fans, and personally I would like him to be our manager for years to come, but there is no doubt if things go tits up this year it could be a very challenging time for Dean and Villa.

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6 hours ago, Wurzel said:

Am I the only one thinking this could be a dangerous season for Dean at Villa? He has lost his best player, he has had a nightmare of a pre-season with covid and staff leaving. It is probably going to be mid October before he will have a full squad to choose from and by that time if we don't get results the pressure will be on. Add to that if the team doesn't perform them there will be clubs after our better players and whose to say they will want to stay with a struggling club? I just feel that Dean can't catch a break at the moment. I'm sure he has the backing of the owners, and most of the fans, and personally I would like him to be our manager for years to come, but there is no doubt if things go tits up this year it could be a very challenging time for Dean and Villa.

Well if it is a struggling season it may be known to NSWE and be an acceptable for all we know.

I certainly would think it were really harsh to sack Dean on a season that were out of his control. 

 

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9 hours ago, Wurzel said:

Am I the only one thinking this could be a dangerous season for Dean at Villa? He has lost his best player, he has had a nightmare of a pre-season with covid and staff leaving. It is probably going to be mid October before he will have a full squad to choose from and by that time if we don't get results the pressure will be on. Add to that if the team doesn't perform them there will be clubs after our better players and whose to say they will want to stay with a struggling club? I just feel that Dean can't catch a break at the moment. I'm sure he has the backing of the owners, and most of the fans, and personally I would like him to be our manager for years to come, but there is no doubt if things go tits up this year it could be a very challenging time for Dean and Villa.

 Chelsea, Everton, Spurs, Man Utd and Wolves next 5 games so it isn't getting any easier.

I reckon we'll be in the bottom 5 after all that, and that's when the pressure will start to mount up. 

People will laugh  but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that we could be involved in a relegation battle this season. 

Those first 3 games I felt was key and the return was really poor. 

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12 hours ago, Wurzel said:

Am I the only one thinking this could be a dangerous season for Dean at Villa? He has lost his best player, he has had a nightmare of a pre-season with covid and staff leaving. It is probably going to be mid October before he will have a full squad to choose from and by that time if we don't get results the pressure will be on. Add to that if the team doesn't perform them there will be clubs after our better players and whose to say they will want to stay with a struggling club? I just feel that Dean can't catch a break at the moment. I'm sure he has the backing of the owners, and most of the fans, and personally I would like him to be our manager for years to come, but there is no doubt if things go tits up this year it could be a very challenging time for Dean and Villa.

It will be challenging, thats for sure, a good start is important to gain momentum....but so many factors have conspired against him.

Dean is certainly not a panicker, so he will address each game as it comes.....We will be ok, once we get a settled team, but a European place is a bit ambitious for me.

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9 minutes ago, skarroki said:

Having another manager won't get us Europe and we're certainly not getting relegated. The team clearly like Deano and the staff, why stir the pot when there's nothing to gain or lose by doing so?

Depends who the manager is.

But I agree it's zero point to sack for the sake of it and our owners won't make any panicky decisions like that.

If we were to bring in another manager if would be a sensible and well thought out decision, and it wouldn't happen mid season.

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I do think NSWE will understand about things going south abit because of Grealish leaving, to many injuries and a fully fit first eleven that after four games still hasn't played together in a league game yet. I certainly do think they'd come out swinging the axe and put Dean's head on the chop block because of the above.

I myself already thought before the season began that we wasn't going to do as well as last season. Sure it would be nice to do better than last, but not all is lost so long as we dont get relegated which I dont think will happen. We just have to get this team going and when it does and it's all figured out I do think all will be fine..

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1 hour ago, skarroki said:

Having another manager won't get us Europe and we're certainly not getting relegated. The team clearly like Deano and the staff, why stir the pot when there's nothing to gain or lose by doing so?

I think it would depend on how the season goes. If we went on a really bad run and got dragged in to a relegation battle after about 10 games in the mood would change dramatically . Fans would get angry, players and manager would feel pressure, villa park would become toxic etc. I think in that scenario the owners would potentially consider making a change. 
 

However I don’t think this will happen. We’ll be comfortably midtable in my opinion. 

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13 hours ago, Wurzel said:

Am I the only one thinking this could be a dangerous season for Dean at Villa? He has lost his best player, he has had a nightmare of a pre-season with covid and staff leaving. It is probably going to be mid October before he will have a full squad to choose from and by that time if we don't get results the pressure will be on. Add to that if the team doesn't perform them there will be clubs after our better players and whose to say they will want to stay with a struggling club? I just feel that Dean can't catch a break at the moment. I'm sure he has the backing of the owners, and most of the fans, and personally I would like him to be our manager for years to come, but there is no doubt if things go tits up this year it could be a very challenging time for Dean and Villa.

That's football.  I really hope we do well, having a Villa captain and manager has been one of the best things about supporting us in recent seasons, I'd hate to have lost both.  I suspect that NSWE and Purslow's expectations have shifted a bit since we couldn't attract that big marquee signing in midfield.  Another mid-table finish with a few of the youngsters coming through will  be the target rather than Europe.

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