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11 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

For people looking for a comparison of teams sticking with their manager, Burnley is a good one.

Came up with Dyche, couldn't stay in the league, were awful and got relegated but stuck with him. Bounced back in one season by winning the Championship and returned to the prem stronger and more suited for the Premier League. NOw heading into their 5th season in the league.

 

Obviously this doesn't mean that sticking with Smith will definitely work. I'm not silly enough to draw that conclusion. But it does show that it can happen.

It's a hard decision.

We have been begging for stability and a well run club for 5+ years now.

You could argue we do have stability now, if not performance on the pitch currently.

Do we take the plunge again for the NEXT manager, or do we ride with it and trust that the club is now better run and we can get back up, then stabalise once we have invested more over the next season or two.

It's a hard decision, I would be 100% behind smith if the team just looked like it was trying, i can accept relegation, but I find it hard to accept a team that looks like a mess and doesnt even do the basics, like work hard.

On balance, I would stick with smith even if relegated, then give him until Christmas to show he can get us back up.

If I were the owners i would also hold on to as many of the players as I could, even to the point of "you are staying, we are going straight back up", whether that's realistic or not is another matter.

If we do get relegated, hopefully we will see some of the youth on and around the bench etc, and invest any player sale money on class players to get us back up straight away.

Weirdly my concern isnt relegation, its that if we get relegated and end up selling grealish or other high profile players, whether that money would be reinvested properly, and that we actually bought some really good players, rather than trash.

My biggest worry is that we get relegated, sell grealish and maybe a couple of other good players, then end up investing 60-100m of that on trash, rather than good players.

Edited by MaVilla
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1 hour ago, TRO said:

Many of us could.....and I can't argue with you.

but, the conclusion is what?......That is a list conducive with a sick club, not a team full of beans having won promotion.

There are several things in could be in my mind:

1. The players aren't performing at a level of intensity that Smith is asking

2. The players don't understand the tactics that Smith puts before them

3. Smith has made too easy for opposition managers to understand our tactics (get it to Grealish), so he/it is nullified and we don't have much of a plan B

4. Players are playing for Smith and he has lost them (not sure on this because we have been crap for most of the season)

5. The players that Smith/Suso bought aren't good enough - This is one I believe the least, we have shown in spurts we can play at a much higher level. Yes, some are squad players and need to go, but others just seem lost and scared

6. Smith is no longer able to motivate the players, even though players should be motivating themselves. This is my biggest concern, a motivated team with a little less quality will beat better teams who can't be asked, most of the time. 

You can see there is a common denominator, and i do place that at Smith's feet. What is happening on the training field isn't working, and if he doesn't sort it out, we are going down. 

I'm not sure if he should go or not, but if the team doesn't show much improvement and we are relegated, then I would sack him. If we don't, I can see it a bit of rinse and repeat, too good for the Championship, but not good enough for the Premier League. 

I would also add, VAR hasn't helped!

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8 hours ago, cbr600rr said:

enough is enough.. terry till end of season 

**** that... talk about frying pan into the fire. If we're going to make a change, bring in an experienced head who knows what they're doing. 

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There isn't one positive you could fire off about the team right now.

People say we played well against Man City, the truth is we were a little more organised than usual and up for the fight as it was a cup final, despite the corner that never was we still would have lost as Man City were far better than us without really getting out of first gear.

There were games in the first half of the season where we found a way to play and looked half decent, but the mistakes have always been there from day one and the games where anyone has found any form are far behind us.

 

 

 

Edited by VillanousOne
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23 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I'm guessing that he hasn't been sacked yet , that means the board are sticking with him

When they gave him a 4 year deal earlier this season that let everyone know that they were going to stick with him no matter what. Even when we go down he won't be sacked.

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37 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

For people looking for a comparison of teams sticking with their manager, Burnley is a good one.

Came up with Dyche, couldn't stay in the league, were awful and got relegated but stuck with him. Bounced back in one season by winning the Championship and returned to the prem stronger and more suited for the Premier League. NOw heading into their 5th season in the league.

 

Obviously this doesn't mean that sticking with Smith will definitely work. I'm not silly enough to draw that conclusion. But it does show that it can happen.

Well obviously it can happen. But is it likely to happen? Is it worth the risk?

In response to the Seam Dyche example, I give you Alex Neil, and Neil Warnock who both spearheaded their teams to the PL, were relegated, yet stuck by their manager. Both left their clubs the very first season they returned to the Championship.

If we only look at the success stories, its going to give us a biased picture.

Edited by Laughable Chimp
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I've said this before and I will most likely say it again. Smith over achieved last season, no one expected us to be promoted and he is learning the hard way with a really tough season in the premier league. If we had missed out on the playoffs and were top 3-4 of the championship right now everyone would be saying what a great job he is doing. 

Even if we go down, and I think now we will, DS deserves a season in the Championship to bounce straight back. We cannot afford another relegation and another hope for the best manager with a raft of new players going into a championship season. DS knows the league and will be best placed to get us out of it with a team he has assembled. There's no doubt we will lose players, I'd be shocked if a prem teams doesn't come for Grealish, McGinn, Mings, maybe even Targett and ElGhazi. But that will still leave the nucleus of the team we have and a manager who hopefully knows how to play us out of the championship. 

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39 minutes ago, villianusa said:

5. The players that Smith/Suso bought aren't good enough - This is one I believe the least, we have shown in spurts we can play at a much higher level. Yes, some are squad players and need to go, but others just seem lost and scared

I think the point is that while none of the players brought in has been a "bad" signing per se (I genuinely believe this), they are all of a similar "squad player" standard.

Can you point to a single new signing who has dramatically improved the team? I'd say Heaton is the only major upgrade, and Targett on a good day. None of the other signings is a significant upgrade on the player they replaced. That's why the best performing players in the team - Grealish, Mings, McGinn, El Ghazi - are the same ones who performed well last season.

Purslow made a mistake not treating this season as a "transition" season - i.e. being willing to break some of his rules on loans, youth, etc. to ensure survival.

We could have loaned an extra striker as backup to Wesley. We could have signed or loaned a more experienced midfielder to take the pressure off McGinn, Douglas and Nakamba (not waiting until January, when the only available player was Danny Drinkwater). I don't think FFP would have stopped us from doing this.

If you genuinely don't think player quality is a major factor, then I think just look objectively at where all our signings have played previously, and what their stats were. These were all "moneyball" signings to some extent, with the exception of Heaton (and I guess Douglas, but he's one for the future).

Edited by KentVillan
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21 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Well obviously it can happen. But is it likely to happen? Is it worth the risk?

 

Is it likely? I'd say yes.

Is it worth the risk? Depends.

 

Would sacking Smith and replacing him with whatever we could get at this stage keep us up? Is that likely?

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Dyche is the exception not the rule 

Zonal marking at corners thats a tactics ie manger decision , could players do better perhaps but the main decision that Mings just stays by himself not marking anyone is from Smith - we are currently the worst team in league for goals conceded at corners yet we continue this tactic when its clearly not working .

Individual errors are costing us but over we are a shambles , we are poorly coached and our tactics ( I could argue what tactics ) are woeful.

First 45 mins take out the first 8 mins are we were awful , Grealish gets on the ball 15 times , you can argue that but for Reina brain freeze we go in all level but that doesn't really reflect what happens , we come out 2nd half and just carry on the same.The 2 obvious attacking issues where 1) Jack can't get on the ball , he is isolated and double marked 2) Elmo just had no pace to effect the game in attack playing wide and isn't exactly helping Guilbert in defence.What changes did we make ..none we carried on and by the time we did make changes the game was over.

Post match Smith belives we were in the game until the Pen , utter deluded bollocks .It was slightly better than Soton but in both games we never looked at all like scoring and could have conceded far more.As for good football ..nope we lumped plenty of balls aimlessly to poor Samatta to run around with a 1% chance of touching the ball 

Some of the players might not be up to the PL but I'm  convinced neither is the manager or his back room staff 

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Nakamba, Luiz, Wes, Trez were always going to take time to get used to the pace of the premier league, none were ready to be automatic starters.

You can see why Drinkwater was signed, Smith wanted a steadying ship in the middle with the right experience, sadly the player is unfit and looks half the player he was when he was at Leicester, I am sure he will come into the team soon but i doubt he is the answer.

As difficult and as expensive as it would be to get, we needed more signings with experience in the summer even if that meant a couple of loans. We should have raided the clubs that were relegated, look how good Billing has been for Bournemouth! 

We didn't even raid the Championship for any of the best players who looked ready to step up in either window (despite the endless links), not saying that would have been the answer but I am surprised we didn't try harder.
 

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1 minute ago, KentVillan said:

I think the point is that while none of the players brought in has been a "bad" signing per se (I genuinely believe this), they are all of a similar "squad player" standard.

Can you point to a single new signing who has dramatically improved the team? I'd say Heaton is the only major upgrade, and Targett on a good day. None of the other signings is a significant upgrade on the player they replaced. That's why the best performing players in the team - Grealish, Mings, McGinn, El Ghazi - are the same ones who performed well last season.

As we finished the playoff final:

Heaton over Steer

Guilbert over Elmo

Targett over Taylor

Nakamba over Hourihane

Samatta over Championship Abraham - He has kicked on this season

Are they superstars? No? Are they better and can perform in the Premier League? Yes. 

The team isn't gelling, seem lost and scared, but as an 11 we should be performing better even if we aren't winning many more games. Too many games where we have just "Turned Up"!

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4 minutes ago, Nabby said:

Zonal marking at corners thats a tactics ie manger decision , could players do better perhaps but the main decision that Mings just stays by himself not marking anyone is from Smith - we are currently the worst team in league for goals conceded at corners yet we continue this tactic when its clearly not working .

 

I have coached zonal marking at corners, and it works when doing correctly. i can tell you, what we were doing at the corner where Evans had a free header wasn't zonal, it's a mix-match of nothing at all. 

Watch the corner again, and watch Mings, he hasn't got a clue what he is doing!

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1 minute ago, villianusa said:

As we finished the playoff final:

Heaton over Steer

Guilbert over Elmo

Targett over Taylor

Nakamba over Hourihane

Samatta over Championship Abraham - He has kicked on this season

Are they superstars? No? Are they better and can perform in the Premier League? Yes. 

The team isn't gelling, seem lost and scared, but as an 11 we should be performing better even if we aren't winning many more games. Too many games where we have just "Turned Up"!

We've stepped up a level, though, so these improvements need to be quite big, not just "he's slightly younger / better".

Guilbert isn't a big improvement on Elmo, and on current form is worse. Targett is defensively worse than Taylor, but much better going forward (no use when we're playing a much better side away from home). Nakamba is tougher and more involved than Hourihane/Whelan, but his passing is shocking.

And we've only just signed Samatta. The correct comparison is Wesley and Abraham.

It's hardly the summer of dramatic squad improvements that we hoped we'd achieved.

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14 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Purslow made a mistake not treating this season as a "transition" season - i.e. being willing to break some of his rules on loans, youth, etc. to ensure survival.

We could have loaned an extra striker as backup to Wesley. We could have signed or loaned a more experienced midfielder to take the pressure off McGinn, Douglas and Nakamba (not waiting until January, when the only available player was Danny Drinkwater). I don't think FFP would have stopped us from doing this.

If you genuinely don't think player quality is a major factor, then I think just look objectively at where all our signings have played previously, and what their stats were. These were all "moneyball" signings to some extent, with the exception of Heaton (and I guess Douglas, but he's one for the future).

I would agree that some of the transfers weren't the best, and January was weak, but the players aren't as bad as most of their performances are showing. 

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2 minutes ago, villianusa said:

I have coached zonal marking at corners, and it works when doing correctly. i can tell you, what we were doing at the corner where Evans had a free header wasn't zonal, it's a mix-match of nothing at all. 

Watch the corner again, and watch Mings, he hasn't got a clue what he is doing!

That's it ..we seemed to have some players man marking ( mostly mis-matched ie Fred against a player a foot taller than him ) then Mings as some special covering defender who just stands in the middle and hopes the ball lands there and he can head away 

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3 hours ago, handsworthvilla said:

Yeah it is very very difficult to make a comeback once the genie is out of the bottle. 

When we get relegated I'd be very surprised if we stuck with Smith, because it is so hard for the same voice that got a team relegated to be the voice that motivates them to start winning every week. Its almost a safer option to go for a fresh voice. I can't think of too many examples of managers who have took a team down and come back up. I know Dyche did it with Burnley, and arguably Rafa at Newcastle although he came in at the end of their relegation season so didn't really get them relegated 

Our very own Vic Crowe did it. Took us down from the 2nd to 3rd division and rebuilt us in 2 seasons. He only joined us to be fair once we were all but relegated and almost saved us.  When we came back up in his second full season we stormed the league. In fact we got to the League Cup Final in his first full season but lost to Spurs. I think that’s the only time a team from the third tier has ever got to the final. 

I don’t think Vic ever got the praise he deserved. I think we finished 8th in his first season back up in the 2nd division and was very harshly sack by Doug. Vic’s role in rebuilding Villa was probably overshadowed by what came next. Some bloke called Saunders did quite well. 

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1 minute ago, KentVillan said:

We've stepped up a level, though, so these improvements need to be quite big, not just "he's slightly younger / better".

Guilbert isn't a big improvement on Elmo, and on current form is worse. Targett is defensively worse than Taylor, but much better going forward (no use when we're playing a much better side away from home). Nakamba is tougher and more involved than Hourihane/Whelan, but his passing is shocking.

And we've only just signed Samatta. The correct comparison is Wesley and Abraham.

It's hardly the summer of dramatic squad improvements that we hoped we'd achieved.

At is best Guilbert is a massive improvement on Elmo, he sadly hasn't shown it very often. I disagree on Taylor and Targett, Taylor couldn't defend in the Championship and has no pace what so ever.  Nakamba, I agree on, and I believe Wesley would tear up the Championship.

In the end, Purslow said he was looking to the future, buying players with sell on value. I believe we will sell most of the players for more than we bought them for (maybe not Welsey). Was the tactic right, I think we will have to wait a while to find out.

In the mean time, Smith needs to do some work on the training field that actually translate to a match day.

I appreciate your opinion and conversation.

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49 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

We have been begging for stability and a well run club for 5+ years now.

The "new structure" was supposed to give us stability so we could hire and fire people without upsetting the stability. plug and play back room staff. like the club everyone dreams of being... brentford.

 

It's time Villa started acting like a big club, by bringing in big name manager like Benitez and following through with big ambitions.

We need owners who give are concerned and are not afraid to make ruthless decisions. That is a sign of a well run club. not people who sit on their hands.

 

 

 

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