Tomaszk Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 6 hours ago, KentVillan said: The transfer market has gone the way of all financial markets -- information is much easier to source, aggregate and analyse, so finding a unique edge is harder, and the size of any edge you find is smaller. So I'd be surprised if our scouting network starts pulling loads of rabbits out of hats. It's more likely that we'll just go for consistency, finding good fits for the playing style, minimising injury risk, avoiding expensive marquee signings, and structuring contracts well so that we don't bleed cash on failures like Micah Richards. That would already be a huge step up from the old regime. In the financial markets, you'll get the odd hedge fund manager who has a good run of form, like Neil Woodford, and they're seen as some kind of superstar stock picker. Then when they try to replicate the success, all it takes is a few gambles to fail, and they look like mugs. Same story with scouting. There's no magic formula. Steve Walsh at Leicester discovered Kante, Vardy and Mahrez. Got sacked by Everton trying to pull off the same trick. Everybody has access to the same data, the same videos, the same tips. What we can sell to incoming players is a happy dressing room, a big stadium and fan base, a manager who plays good football, and a financially stable, well-run business. We might be the only relegation-threatened team that offers that, so I reckon that's our edge more than any kind of fancy scouting network. But it's unlikely Suso's going to unearth some kid playing second tier football in Albania who turns out to be the next Pirlo. Great post. We aren't quite fully there yet I don't think though. Some scouting setups of smaller clubs are consistently outshining big boys even though they have much of the same data. £20m Brentford for example. Barnsley will get there at some point you'd think. This summer is huge and although I'm not expecting a Pirlo... A Sigurdsson, a Piatek, a Benrahma, a Super John McGinn would be wonderful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Tomaszk said: Great post. We aren't quite fully there yet I don't think though. Some scouting setups of smaller clubs are consistently outshining big boys even though they have much of the same data. £20m Brentford for example. Barnsley will get there at some point you'd think. This summer is huge and although I'm not expecting a Pirlo... A Sigurdsson, a Piatek, a Benrahma, a Super John McGinn would be wonderful. I think a team like Brentford can afford to take a punt on more ‘rough gems’ and they won’t all work out. We had a similar strategy the year we signed players like Traore, Amavi, Veretout, Ayew and Gueye. Some of those players were actually very good but the Premier League is too unforgiving to take so many punts on your squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AntrimBlack Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, LondonLax said: I think a team like Brentford can afford to take a punt on more ‘rough gems’ and they won’t all work out. We had a similar strategy the year we signed players like Traore, Amavi, Veretout, Ayew and Gueye. Some of those players were actually very good but the Premier League is too unforgiving to take so many punts on your squad. I think it was the punt managing them that was the problem. 3 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post KMitch Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 24, 2019 3 hours ago, AntrimBlack said: I think it was the punt managing them that was the problem. 4 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted June 24, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, KMitch said: How long before someone posts about still having a soft spot for him and still thinking he would have been a success with more time. Edited June 24, 2019 by sidcow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 4 hours ago, KMitch said: What was he on there? He looks 99p short of a quid! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 9 hours ago, LondonLax said: I think a team like Brentford can afford to take a punt on more ‘rough gems’ and they won’t all work out. We had a similar strategy the year we signed players like Traore, Amavi, Veretout, Ayew and Gueye. Some of those players were actually very good but the Premier League is too unforgiving to take so many punts on your squad. this is an interesting Vid of how scouting data analysis impacts clubs, and why "smaller" clubs will always seem to have an edge in unearthing "gems", interesting watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted June 24, 2019 Author VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2019 5 hours ago, KMitch said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Just posted this in the quagmire of the transfer thread... At the moment there is loads of questions around our recruitment team for me. We get one chance at this summer reset with plenty of funds available. This is it. Can't ever remember a turn around of players in our favour like this. Time still to do business but Suso and his team need to pull their finger out. The Championship links simply tell to me that the targets aren't being identified. Deals are happening every week for good players we could have got in for reasonable fees. I sincerely hope that come August this uneasiness was unfounded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 7, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted July 7, 2019 There's nothing to worry about. It's early July. We've signed a number of players, including breaking our record transfer for a striker out of nowhere. There's always going to be other transfers going through, this isn't necessarily at all related to our business. You also have to bear in mind there's international competitions going on that may also hamper business we wish to do, and players have been on holiday. If there hasn't been a great deal of progress by the end of the month, then it's time to start worrying. Now? No. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Just now, Chindie said: There's nothing to worry about. It's early July. We've signed a number of players, including breaking our record transfer for a striker out of nowhere. There's always going to be other transfers going through, this isn't necessarily at all related to our business. You also have to bear in mind there's international competitions going on that may also hamper business we wish to do, and players have been on holiday. If there hasn't been a great deal of progress by the end of the month, then it's time to start worrying. Now? No. Deals are happening every week for good players we could have got in for reasonable fees. That's my only sole worry. It's quiet in England but in Europe there's plenty going on. Worries are exacerbated by us needing so many players as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 7, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted July 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: Deals are happening every week for good players we could have got in for reasonable fees. That's my only sole worry. It's quiet in England but in Europe there's plenty going on. Worries are exacerbated by us needing so many players as well. Deals happen for players at reasonable fees that don't become Villa players every window. We most likely aren't interested in these players on the weight of probability alone, or rarely maybe we missed out. It happens. We'll be looking at dozens of players. Yes we have a lot of business to do but there's no need to be jumping at shadows - just because other players are moving and other teams are doing business doesn't mean we're missing out or resting on laurels. It just means we have other targets. Again. It's early July. Preseason began a couple of days ago. Internationals are still ongoing. Players are only just coming back to their clubs. We seem to still have a knack of plucking players the press has no knowledge of. Right now, there's nothing to worry about. Sit back, look forward to what should be an exciting window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Tomaszk said: Just posted this in the quagmire of the transfer thread... At the moment there is loads of questions around our recruitment team for me. We get one chance at this summer reset with plenty of funds available. This is it. Can't ever remember a turn around of players in our favour like this. Time still to do business but Suso and his team need to pull their finger out. The Championship links simply tell to me that the targets aren't being identified. Deals are happening every week for good players we could have got in for reasonable fees. I sincerely hope that come August this uneasiness was unfounded. Every window it's as if people think you just pay a simple fee and buy a player. I'm shocked every time how simplistic people imagine these multi-million pound deals to be. It's not as if there are other teams well aware that we have Prem TV money coming and have an interest in a) not selling their best players (Phillips/Webster for example) and b) getting as much money for those players and generally making decisions in their own interests. And no, you can't just buy 'from abroad' as if that's where all the cheap deals are. We got relegated last time we did that. We also spent 22million on a striker from Belgium, so it may not be quite as cheap as people imagine! It's certainly no sure thing anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 minute ago, praisedmambo said: And no, you can't just buy 'from abroad' as if that's where all the cheap deals are. We got relegated last time we did that. No - we didn’t get relegated because of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, dudevillaisnice said: No - we didn’t get relegated because of that. That's debatable. Foreign players tend to take time to settle and adapt to the English game. The more you bring in at one time, the more likely it is your team will be under performing, due to the number of players trying to adapt. By the time they do, you find yourself bottom of the table with morale shot to pieces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 hour ago, praisedmambo said: Every window it's as if people think you just pay a simple fee and buy a player. I'm shocked every time how simplistic people imagine these multi-million pound deals to be. It's not as if there are other teams well aware that we have Prem TV money coming and have an interest in a) not selling their best players (Phillips/Webster for example) and b) getting as much money for those players and generally making decisions in their own interests. And no, you can't just buy 'from abroad' as if that's where all the cheap deals are. We got relegated last time we did that. We also spent 22million on a striker from Belgium, so it may not be quite as cheap as people imagine! It's certainly no sure thing anyway. Didn't say it was simple. Buying abroad isn't a problem, do you just want to buy British? That'll be an expensive summer. If this window we brought in Amavi, Veretout, Gueye and even headless chicken Traore, they would be usable in the squad and OK under Smith. We need to get buying from anywhere, and quickly. Hopefully we will and all will be good come the start of the season. CB Denis Vavro to Lazio DM Dominik Kohr to Frankfurt ST/winger Benito Raman to Schalke. All under £10m each in the last week. All positions we're desperate for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Made In Aston said: That's debatable. Foreign players tend to take time to settle and adapt to the English game. The more you bring in at one time, the more likely it is your team will be under performing, due to the number of players trying to adapt. By the time they do, you find yourself bottom of the table with morale shot to pieces. Again, that is not the reason why we got relegated. I point you to Sherwood and his cronies the likes of Lescott who did far more damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thats2 Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: Didn't say it was simple. Buying abroad isn't a problem, do you just want to buy British? That'll be an expensive summer. If this window we brought in Amavi, Veretout, Gueye and even headless chicken Traore, they would be usable in the squad and OK under Smith. We need to get buying from anywhere, and quickly. Hopefully we will and all will be good come the start of the season. CB Denis Vavro to Lazio DM Dominik Kohr to Frankfurt ST/winger Benito Raman to Schalke. All under £10m each in the last week. All positions we're desperate for. Maybe we made an approach for the lot of them and they had no interest in us? Maybe we even made offers but the selling clubs got better ones? Maybe we looked and decided they’re not good enough for the Premier League? Isn’t it just possible that we are more active behind the scenes than you - or indeed most everyone on VT - believe us to be? It’s clear from the Wesley and Guilbert signings that we prefer to be tight-lipped about our business, I would say that the lack of leaks on twitter et al isn’t an indication our heads are in the sand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thats2 said: Maybe we made an approach for the lot of them and they had no interest in us? Maybe we even made offers but the selling clubs got better ones? Maybe we looked and decided they’re not good enough for the Premier League? Isn’t it just possible that we are more active behind the scenes than you - or indeed most everyone on VT - believe us to be? It’s clear from the Wesley and Guilbert signings that we prefer to be tight-lipped about our business, I would say that the lack of leaks on twitter et al isn’t an indication our heads are in the sand. Hope we did! I'm certain we're busy behind the scenes. Certain. Yet we sit here with the window closing in 4 week and we can hardly put out an XI that won't lose every match they play. Make some signings and we give Smith a better chance to integrate them and ourselves a better chance of having an enjoyable season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Surprised we haven't been linked to more players from La Liga, remember in January we were linked to Rudonja from Celta Vigo and Doucoure from Levante. Below the top 3-4 teams jn Spain the wages of many players is very low compared to premier league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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