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allani

Form and Stats

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"So our current league position is exactly our form position over the last 6 months.  Time is not the issue.  Rebuilding is not the issue.  PS - Just in case anyone thinks that the stats will be skewed by the 3 extra matches against other promotion rivals last season - the average league position of our opponents over that 22 matches is.... 12th.

All of which is "interesting" but really just suggests that our mid-table form is not just based on results at the start of this season but over the final third(ish) of last season too."

From disappearing after the Wolves result to now we've been poor, aside from the form the football has shown no signs of getting better.

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35 minutes ago, romavillan said:

"So our current league position is exactly our form position over the last 6 months.  Time is not the issue.  Rebuilding is not the issue.  PS - Just in case anyone thinks that the stats will be skewed by the 3 extra matches against other promotion rivals last season - the average league position of our opponents over that 22 matches is.... 12th.

All of which is "interesting" but really just suggests that our mid-table form is not just based on results at the start of this season but over the final third(ish) of last season too."

From disappearing after the Wolves result to now we've been poor, aside from the form the football has shown no signs of getting better.

I think the point is that the times when the results have been good / performances have been good over the past 12 - 18 months have probably been the exception rather than the rule.  The theory seemed to be that if we eliminated the poor spells then our good spells would see us challenge for promotion (after all we got within 90 minutes last season).  However, instead our poor spells seem to be extending and the danger is that if we eliminate the good spells then we're suddenly mid-table at best, bottom half more likely and worse case in a run of relegation form.  I don't think that it will be as bad as the latter so am happy to dismiss that.  But if you eliminate the worst case then you also have to eliminate the best case.  All of which means we are exactly where we should be.  Bang average, mid-table.  A few good results there, a few bad results thereabouts and a whole load of meh results in between.  Which at least solves the riddle of Bruce's "there or thereabouts".

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What a pointless thread. If you’d have done the same at this point last season, you’d have likely concluded the same, but we finished 4th.

Now this certainly isn’t a defence of Bruce, but a comment on how pointless this kind of stat manipulation is to determine, we’ll, anything really. 

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Stats can prove most things I agree.  But Bruce has said repeatedly that we will get better.  It is too early in the season to judge.  We didn't start well last season either.  But this isn't about the start of the season.  This is about our form over the last 6 months.  Indeed 22 matches so 1 match short of half a season.  Even if you add in that 1 extra match (Wolves) then our half season form (projected out to a full season) is 11th rather than 12th.  That is a long way short of 4th.  15 points short of 4th to be precise.

Edited by allani

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23 minutes ago, allani said:

Stats can prove most things I agree.  But Bruce has said repeatedly that we will get better.  It is too early in the season to judge.  We didn't start well last season either.  But this isn't about the start of the season.  This is about our form over the last 6 months.  Indeed 22 matches so 1 match short of half a season.  Even if you add in that 1 extra match (Wolves) then our half season form (projected out to a full season) is 11th rather than 12th.  That is a long way short of 4th.  15 points short of 4th to be precise.

So pull the stats from the back end of the 16/17 season and the start of last season. Let’s see what they determined and how accurately they predicted our final finish of fourth place. 

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13 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

So pull the stats from the back end of the 16/17 season and the start of last season. Let’s see what they determined and how accurately they predicted our final finish of fourth place. 

If you take Bruce's entire tenure at Villa (P78, W34, D21, L23) and apply that across a full, single season you would get to 73 points.  Which would have had us finishing either 7th or 8th last season depending on goal difference.  Even accounting for the fact that the team was a mess (I'd argue that it is still a mess now - allbeit a different mess) when he arrived on that form we would still be 17 points off promotion.  Also suggests that despite Bruce's assertation that we need more time, our form is going backwards rather than forwards.

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We've not beaten any of the sides in the relegation zone but nothings to say those teams down there now will be bottom at end of the season so it's not really comparable to beating last year's relegated sides. Again with just multiplying what we are currently on doesn't give the slightest out look to where we will finish, we had less points at this stage last season but finished 4th. 

One thing is for sure though, if we continue playing the way we have been throughout the season we will be lucky to finish top half, something needs to change. 

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1 hour ago, The Fun Factory said:

We had a fairly crappy start last season and got better- I am not sure if that is to be repeated this time though.

The fact we're in this position of needing to catch up again is not great at all. 

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It’s the games against Ipswich and Reading that are so frustrating. These teams look very poor and I can see them really struggling this season. Thats 4 crucial points dropped. 

Wigan and Blackburn have actually impressed me and I think they will both stay up this season. So difficult to compare them with the 3 terrible teams that got relegated last season. 

I enjoyed the OP though and appreciation the effort gone in to it. I love a good stat.

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On 16/09/2018 at 10:40, allani said:

P7 W2 D4 L1 - which gives us 10 points.  

However, compare those figures with the comparison of the results from last season:

P7 W6 D1 L0 - which gave us a total of 19 points.  

So we are 9 points worse off this season compared to last in just 7 matches.  

Which teams did you compare with which and have you done it as now? Always wary of that as form can play a significant factor in those stats, particularly early on in the season. 

I did it with the same teams, but replacing the best team respectively with the relegated ones, so  Wigan=Barnsley; Blackburn=Burton Albion and Rotherham=Sunderland. I got last seasons as W5 D2 L0 and therefore 7 points worse off [apologies to the phone people - table will skew the screen I believe]: 

2017/8

 

2018/9

 

Pts Diff

Home

Score

Away

 

Home

Score

Away

 

 

Hull City

0–0

Aston Villa

Hull City

1–3

Aston Villa

+2

Aston Villa

3–1

Barnsley

Aston Villa

3–2

Wigan Athletic

0

Ipswich Town

0–4

Aston Villa

Ipswich Town

1–1

Aston Villa

-2

Aston Villa

0–0

Brentford

Aston Villa

2–2

Brentford

0

Aston Villa

3–0

Reading

Aston Villa

1–1

Reading               

-2

Sheffield United

0-1         

Aston Villa

Sheffield United

4-1

Aston Villa

-3

Burton Albion

0–4

Aston Villa

Blackburn Rovers

1–1

Aston Villa

-2

Total Points Difference

 

-7

Agree entirely with the sentiment though, in comparison to the games last season against the same opponents, we are already behind far behind. I know there are arguments to say the relegated teams were dire last season, but actually its only the Blackburn result which is affected. Even then, over the over 6 games we are still 5 points down. 

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On 16/09/2018 at 22:36, Zatman said:

No defence of Bruce but we have 3 more points than this stage last season

But we'd played better team in terms of their final positions v current positions this season.

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22 hours ago, cyrusr said:

Which teams did you compare with which and have you done it as now? Always wary of that as form can play a significant factor in those stats, particularly early on in the season. 

I did it with the same teams, but replacing the best team respectively with the relegated ones, so  Wigan=Barnsley; Blackburn=Burton Albion and Rotherham=Sunderland. I got last seasons as W5 D2 L0 and therefore 7 points worse off 

I used the current position of the team played this season (admittedly I did that based on the results after the weekend rather than the position when we played them) and then compared that with the corresponding match from last season.  So Blackburn were / are 13th in the table so I compared the weekend's result (i.e. the away match against the team placed 13th) with the result of the Leeds Utd away match last season.  I did this to try and base it on form rather than the side (as in Ipswich's result this season is better compared to Sunderland last season rather than Ipswich - who finished top half - last season).

I'm interested to see the direct result comparison that you have done too (and agree that the only real option is to substitute the promoted teams for the relegated ones - in both directions).  Either way it seems that this season is considerably worse than last season - despite all the claims that we'd made the best start for 50 seasons (which I think can now be completely dismissed as baloney based on the friendliest possible fixture list rather than the actual performance of the team).

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24 minutes ago, allani said:

But we'd played better team in terms of their final positions v current positions this season.

That's a very strange stat to judge. Can only play what's scheduled in the fixtures

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