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KJT123

18/19 Race for Promotion

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Wow, fantastic first half from us. Hopefully it will make the owners mind on who they’re going to get instead of Bruce.

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9 minutes ago, Zatman said:

My comment yesterday I still stand by

Not on the squad at all. We have players capable of keeping the ball for more than 2 seconds, the fact that they're not lies on someone else.

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For all the money spent on Bolasie, Abraham and El Ghazi's wages we have no defence.

We won't be getting promoted. That's probably half a million a month in wages for players who won't get us promoted due to the lack of defence and balance.

 

What a waste of money, and we won't get any return or results on it.

 

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If Bruce isn't sacked now we will be down here for years and the current years gamble on FFP compliance will bite us on the arse. 

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5 points off the pace and we haven’t played anyone of note yet. No chance of promotion unless the owners move swiftly.

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1 hour ago, jim said:

5 points off the pace and we haven’t played anyone of note yet. No chance of promotion unless the owners move swiftly.

You think you've got it bad ? 

At least you're still "there or thereabouts", we've got to wait for the pundit-declared inevitability of "Bielsa burnout", don't know you're born you lot....?

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5 minutes ago, hooter said:

You think you've got it bad ? 

At least you're still "there or thereabouts", we've got to wait for the pundit-declared inevitability of "Bielsa burnout", don't know you're born you lot....?

We're only six games in, you might rue your uncalled for smugness yet.

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9 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

We're only six games in, you might rue your uncalled for smugness yet.

I may well do.

I'm not smug by the way, 15 years out of the top flight ensures that, you may find that out, who knows ?

But it also means you grasp positive developments for your team with both hands, and watch the smugness of others with a nod to your own past.

Enjoy your season, I'm sure whatever happens I'll enjoy mine. ?

 

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 copy and paste re this "Bielsa burnout" factor. I know Keith Andrews and similar football brains have accepted it as a fact, but it isn't obvious when you look at facts.

Now please don't take this as smugness , or a declaration of our promotion (I remember a tweet "announce avfc championship winners" just before one of your friendlies last year, that went well...) but what it does do is show whatever pitfalls may await Bielsa's experiment (and I don't doubt there are many), this "inevitable burnout" stuff is a bit lame and uninformed, I'd settle for beaten Europa league finalists right now, maybe that proves how small time we are. ?

"It has become received wisdom that Bielsa teams burnout and cannot sustain their form over the course of a long season. You would think that this would mean that his teams tend to win fewer games and accrue fewer points as the season goes on. I had a little look at his previous seasons in management to see if this was the case, going back to Velez Sarsfield in 97/98. The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. The rest of his time was spent in international management which obviously doesn't have the same regularity as club football. 

 

I decided to split the seasons into four quarters to compare points tallies across the year. Taking it in chronological order:

 

Velez Sarsfield 97/98. (NB: the Argentine season in this era was played in two distinct parts with two champions. However, it was effectively a 38 game season with a long winter break between the end of December and start of February). 

- Matches 1-9: W4 D3 L2 - 15 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D5 L1 - 17 points

- Matches 20-28: W6 D2 L1 - 20 points

- Matches 29-38: W8 D2 L0 - 26 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 11/12

- Matches 1-9: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 10-19: W3 D5 L2 - 14 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D3 L4 - 12 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 12/13

- Matches 1-9: W2 D2 L5 - 8 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D1 L4 - 13 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D4 L3 - 13 points

 

Marseille 14/15

- Matches 1-9: W7 D1 L1 - 22 points

- Matches 10-19: W6 D1 L3 - 19 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 29-38: W5 D1 L4 - 16 points

 

So bearing in mind that I only looked at regular season league matches and haven't gone back beyond the 20 year mark (as I don't think this popular reputation for burnout comes from the distant past in central and South America) we can see that the points totals are fairly evenly spread across the four quarters. At Velez the league form got stronger as things went on, whereas at Bilbao there is pretty much a consistency between all sectors. At Marseille the team got off to an absolute flyer and were top for a while before slipping down the table but the dip over time wasn't especially dramatic (they finished 4th) and that kind of blinding start followed by a tail off wasn't characteristic of his Bilbao team. 

 

If anyone is interested, I also found this analysis of statistics relating to the Marseille pressing tactics: https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/taking-a-look-at-this-years-bielsa-burnout/. The takeaway point is that measured by possession turnovers in the attacking third there isn't anything particularly remarkable about the effectiveness of the press. Moreover, although the press did drop deeper as the game went on the ability to score goals late in a game appeared undiminished. 

 

It seems to me that the reputation for burnout comes from (a) the blistering start that Marseille made, which realistically they were never going to maintain and (b) the defeats that Bilbao suffered in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey finals. Suffering at the final hurdle is often put down to exhaustion but it isn't reflected in league performance as far as I can see. 

 

At some point we will go through a sticky patch as does every team and it will undoubtedly be put down to burnout because that is the media narrative for Bielsa. We aren't going to maintain a 2.6 points-per-game average regardless of physical fitness. But there is no real reason to think that we are going to completely collapse either. 

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7 hours ago, hooter said:

The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. 

Yeah good luck with that...

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8 hours ago, hooter said:

 copy and paste re this "Bielsa burnout" factor. I know Keith Andrews and similar football brains have accepted it as a fact, but it isn't obvious when you look at facts.

Now please don't take this as smugness , or a declaration of our promotion (I remember a tweet "announce avfc championship winners" just before one of your friendlies last year, that went well...) but what it does do is show whatever pitfalls may await Bielsa's experiment (and I don't doubt there are many), this "inevitable burnout" stuff is a bit lame and uninformed, I'd settle for beaten Europa league finalists right now, maybe that proves how small time we are. ?

"It has become received wisdom that Bielsa teams burnout and cannot sustain their form over the course of a long season. You would think that this would mean that his teams tend to win fewer games and accrue fewer points as the season goes on. I had a little look at his previous seasons in management to see if this was the case, going back to Velez Sarsfield in 97/98. The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. The rest of his time was spent in international management which obviously doesn't have the same regularity as club football. 

 

I decided to split the seasons into four quarters to compare points tallies across the year. Taking it in chronological order:

 

Velez Sarsfield 97/98. (NB: the Argentine season in this era was played in two distinct parts with two champions. However, it was effectively a 38 game season with a long winter break between the end of December and start of February). 

- Matches 1-9: W4 D3 L2 - 15 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D5 L1 - 17 points

- Matches 20-28: W6 D2 L1 - 20 points

- Matches 29-38: W8 D2 L0 - 26 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 11/12

- Matches 1-9: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 10-19: W3 D5 L2 - 14 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D3 L4 - 12 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 12/13

- Matches 1-9: W2 D2 L5 - 8 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D1 L4 - 13 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D4 L3 - 13 points

 

Marseille 14/15

- Matches 1-9: W7 D1 L1 - 22 points

- Matches 10-19: W6 D1 L3 - 19 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 29-38: W5 D1 L4 - 16 points

 

So bearing in mind that I only looked at regular season league matches and haven't gone back beyond the 20 year mark (as I don't think this popular reputation for burnout comes from the distant past in central and South America) we can see that the points totals are fairly evenly spread across the four quarters. At Velez the league form got stronger as things went on, whereas at Bilbao there is pretty much a consistency between all sectors. At Marseille the team got off to an absolute flyer and were top for a while before slipping down the table but the dip over time wasn't especially dramatic (they finished 4th) and that kind of blinding start followed by a tail off wasn't characteristic of his Bilbao team. 

 

If anyone is interested, I also found this analysis of statistics relating to the Marseille pressing tactics: https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/taking-a-look-at-this-years-bielsa-burnout/. The takeaway point is that measured by possession turnovers in the attacking third there isn't anything particularly remarkable about the effectiveness of the press. Moreover, although the press did drop deeper as the game went on the ability to score goals late in a game appeared undiminished. 

 

It seems to me that the reputation for burnout comes from (a) the blistering start that Marseille made, which realistically they were never going to maintain and (b) the defeats that Bilbao suffered in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey finals. Suffering at the final hurdle is often put down to exhaustion but it isn't reflected in league performance as far as I can see. 

 

At some point we will go through a sticky patch as does every team and it will undoubtedly be put down to burnout because that is the media narrative for Bielsa. We aren't going to maintain a 2.6 points-per-game average regardless of physical fitness. But there is no real reason to think that we are going to completely collapse either. 

You’ve used 4 seasons worth of data from the guys last 20 seasons in football to argue your point?

I take it back I see he did 13 years as international manager... continue.

Edited by Tommo_b

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22 hours ago, hooter said:

 copy and paste re this "Bielsa burnout" factor. I know Keith Andrews and similar football brains have accepted it as a fact, but it isn't obvious when you look at facts.

Now please don't take this as smugness , or a declaration of our promotion (I remember a tweet "announce avfc championship winners" just before one of your friendlies last year, that went well...) but what it does do is show whatever pitfalls may await Bielsa's experiment (and I don't doubt there are many), this "inevitable burnout" stuff is a bit lame and uninformed, I'd settle for beaten Europa league finalists right now, maybe that proves how small time we are. ?

"It has become received wisdom that Bielsa teams burnout and cannot sustain their form over the course of a long season. You would think that this would mean that his teams tend to win fewer games and accrue fewer points as the season goes on. I had a little look at his previous seasons in management to see if this was the case, going back to Velez Sarsfield in 97/98. The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. The rest of his time was spent in international management which obviously doesn't have the same regularity as club football. 

 

I decided to split the seasons into four quarters to compare points tallies across the year. Taking it in chronological order:

 

Velez Sarsfield 97/98. (NB: the Argentine season in this era was played in two distinct parts with two champions. However, it was effectively a 38 game season with a long winter break between the end of December and start of February). 

- Matches 1-9: W4 D3 L2 - 15 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D5 L1 - 17 points

- Matches 20-28: W6 D2 L1 - 20 points

- Matches 29-38: W8 D2 L0 - 26 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 11/12

- Matches 1-9: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 10-19: W3 D5 L2 - 14 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D3 L4 - 12 points

 

Athletic Bilbao 12/13

- Matches 1-9: W2 D2 L5 - 8 points

- Matches 10-19: W4 D1 L4 - 13 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points

- Matches 29-38: W3 D4 L3 - 13 points

 

Marseille 14/15

- Matches 1-9: W7 D1 L1 - 22 points

- Matches 10-19: W6 D1 L3 - 19 points

- Matches 20-28: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points

- Matches 29-38: W5 D1 L4 - 16 points

 

So bearing in mind that I only looked at regular season league matches and haven't gone back beyond the 20 year mark (as I don't think this popular reputation for burnout comes from the distant past in central and South America) we can see that the points totals are fairly evenly spread across the four quarters. At Velez the league form got stronger as things went on, whereas at Bilbao there is pretty much a consistency between all sectors. At Marseille the team got off to an absolute flyer and were top for a while before slipping down the table but the dip over time wasn't especially dramatic (they finished 4th) and that kind of blinding start followed by a tail off wasn't characteristic of his Bilbao team. 

 

If anyone is interested, I also found this analysis of statistics relating to the Marseille pressing tactics: https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/taking-a-look-at-this-years-bielsa-burnout/. The takeaway point is that measured by possession turnovers in the attacking third there isn't anything particularly remarkable about the effectiveness of the press. Moreover, although the press did drop deeper as the game went on the ability to score goals late in a game appeared undiminished. 

 

It seems to me that the reputation for burnout comes from (a) the blistering start that Marseille made, which realistically they were never going to maintain and (b) the defeats that Bilbao suffered in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey finals. Suffering at the final hurdle is often put down to exhaustion but it isn't reflected in league performance as far as I can see. 

 

At some point we will go through a sticky patch as does every team and it will undoubtedly be put down to burnout because that is the media narrative for Bielsa. We aren't going to maintain a 2.6 points-per-game average regardless of physical fitness. But there is no real reason to think that we are going to completely collapse either. 

Interesting stats. Leeds have been out of the top flight for too long and I'm happy for you to go up this season as long as it's not at our expense. I think Bielsa was a very good appointment. 

You could do a Wolves this season or a Derby. It's too early to tell. We have had a disappointing start but again it is early days and we might yet do a Fulham and finish strongly when our new signings settle in and if we do something about our brittle defence. Time will tell. At this stage of the season we both have hope you just have a head start on us. We are both likely to have poor runs at some point. We have just gone early...

 

Edited by John
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18 minutes ago, John said:

Interesting stats. Leeds have been out of the top flight for too long and I'm happy for you to go up this season as long as it's not at our expense. I think Bielsa was a very good appointment. 

You could do a Wolves this season or a Derby. It's too early to tell. We have had a disappointing start but again it is early days and we might yet do a Fulham and finish strongly when our new signings settle in and if we do something about our brittle defence. Time will tell. At this stage of the season we both have hope you just have a head start on us. We are both likely to have poor runs at some point. We have just gone early...

 

 

I doubt we'll do a Wolves, and hope we slightly exceed a Derby.

Obviously you are a potential rival so I hope Bruce remains in place for a while yet. As an outsider looking in, your pursuit of a lame and expensive winger from Everton rather than a capable defender appeared an odd decision, but then I once saw him decline chili sauce on his kebab when paying a visit to my mum and dad, so frankly his thought processes baffle me.

We tend to find novel ways to **** up, and may do again, I'll be likely to be having a pint or two in the Yew Tree in late December either way, deep under cover and hopefully still smug. ?

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7 hours ago, hooter said:

 

I doubt we'll do a Wolves, and hope we slightly exceed a Derby.

Obviously you are a potential rival so I hope Bruce remains in place for a while yet. As an outsider looking in, your pursuit of a lame and expensive winger from Everton rather than a capable defender appeared an odd decision, but then I once saw him decline chili sauce on his kebab when paying a visit to my mum and dad, so frankly his thought processes baffle me.

We tend to find novel ways to **** up, and may do again, I'll be likely to be having a pint or two in the Yew Tree in late December either way, deep under cover and hopefully still smug. ?

We did try to bring in a defender but the first one chose to stay in France at the last minute and we couldn't get Aberdeen to take our money for our plan B on the final day of the window. We will be stuck with playing players playing out of position or bringing back John Terry which is my preference to fill the hole in our central defence until January now which puts our promotion hopes under real threat. It's something we should have sorted well before the last day though. Let's hope we're both in the mix come late December and good luck to your boys, although I suspect we may need that luck more than you will. By the way I prefer lemon on my kebab (it's a matter of taste and we at Villa Park are reputed to have great taste when it comes to football as well as fine dining). :)

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