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18/19 Race for Promotion


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11 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Derby got there best player back now (mount). Along with the game in hand and easy run in they could be a problem. 

Not if we get them in the playoffs. 

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5 hours ago, Nigel said:

Derby got there best player back now (mount). Along with the game in hand and easy run in they could be a problem. 

Thats why it was important to get 5th place for the grabs too.

Hopefully they lose their game in hand and Bristol lose then draw with Boro. That outcome would make us in a very good position hopefully.

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On 18/03/2019 at 23:57, il_serpente said:

So Boro finish 7th with 76 points, even though they are currently on pace to finish with 72 and are in horrible form?   And one of Derby, Bristol, Wednesday or Preston finishes with more than 76 even though none are currently on pace to finish above 70?   Derby and Bristol would have to have a complete turnaround in form, Preston would have to keep their current run going for another 8 games or Wednesday would have to step up another level.   And several of them play each other.   I think 75 points and probably fewer will be enough for a playoff spot.

Agree.

5 Wins, a Draw, and 2 Defeats should give us 6th - especially if those results are against the right teams !

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No team has managed a win streak longer than 7 games. Not sure what it is about that number 7 as im sure it was the same last season too.  Our 8th game would be against Bristol. 

Blackburn and Rotherham look easy on paper but they have both only lost 5 at home all season. Sheffield Wednesday have only lost 3. These 3 games will be very hard. 

Home records have been crucial for teams in the lower half this season.

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

No team has managed a win streak longer than 7 games. Not sure what it is about that number 7 as im sure it was the same last season too.  Our 8th game would be against Bristol. 

Blackburn and Rotherham look easy on paper but they have both only lost 5 at home all season. Sheffield Wednesday have only lost 3. These 3 games will be very hard. 

Home records have been crucial for teams in the lower half this season.

Blackburn is at Villa Park

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

No team has managed a win streak longer than 7 games. Not sure what it is about that number 7 as im sure it was the same last season too.  Our 8th game would be against Bristol. 

Blackburn and Rotherham look easy on paper but they have both only lost 5 at home all season. Sheffield Wednesday have only lost 3. These 3 games will be very hard. 

Home records have been crucial for teams in the lower half this season.

That's because they havnt played us yet😁

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8 hours ago, M_Afro said:

This is Villa we are talking about. Beat Leeds, Norwich, Bristol and Sheff W. Lose the rest!

I am only half joking

Win them all, finish snug in the playoffs 9 pts ahead of 7th.

Get a 9pt deduction, finish 7th on GD.

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20 hours ago, rodders0223 said:

Win them all, finish snug in the playoffs 9 pts ahead of 7th.

Get a 9pt deduction, finish 7th on GD.

oh dear god that would suck the wind out of any sail

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Didn't know where else to put this.  We need to start the 2nd half better than we do.  The first 15 minutes of the 2nd half are far and away our worst 15 minute period this season.

1st minute to 15th minute we've scored 13 and conceded 7 (+6GD)
16-30 Score 8 Concede 8 (+0)
31-45 Score 12 concede 9 (+3)
46-60 Score 5 concede 12 (-7)
61-75 Score 16 concede 5 (+11)
76-90 Score 14 concede 13 (+1)

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5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Looking at Derby's run-in makes me sad.

Remembering Derby's record of hilariously blowing it every year makes me happy again. 

I would love to see a table which showed playoff contenders remaining opponents based on team form. I reckon that could be a good indicator of how strong the remaining games are.

edit: Hang on a minute. Derbies away fixtures look pretty tricky!

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I actually think we have one of the easier run in considering we are at home for the harder games and away against 2 of the worst teams in the league. 

Must teams are good at home in this league. It’s away games where everyone seems to struggle. Shef Wed could be tricky and I’d be happy for us to take a point. Leeds will be the hardest game but by then we’ll be clear on who needs what to make playoffs or automatic. 

Norwich will already be promoted by the last game of the season. 

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On 25/03/2019 at 15:39, BOF said:

Didn't know where else to put this.  We need to start the 2nd half better than we do.  The first 15 minutes of the 2nd half are far and away our worst 15 minute period this season.

1st minute to 15th minute we've scored 13 and conceded 7 (+6GD)
16-30 Score 8 Concede 8 (+0)
31-45 Score 12 concede 9 (+3)
46-60 Score 5 concede 12 (-7)
61-75 Score 16 concede 5 (+11)
76-90 Score 14 concede 13 (+1)

It feels to me that we've been bad at the start of second halfs for as long as i can remember.

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I think with 8 or 9 games to go there is marginal difference in the level of difficulty in the remaining games for any given team.

Why?

One third of teams in the division are within reach of 5th or 6th place. They have everything to play for.

The top 4 teams, especially the top 3, are still vying for automatic promotion. They have everything to play for.

One quarter of teams are fighting to save themselves from relegation. They have everything to play for.

That leaves a handful of teams who are essentially making up the numbers for the remainder. They still have pride to play for.

What I think matters most is the points advantage or deficit and a teams ability to leverage their talent on any given day.

Thankfully we are positioned in 6th, not 10th, and we have the personnel and chemistry to succeed. The advantage is not huge, so we'll see what happens.

I'm confident, as I have been for the majority of Smith's tenure, that we will make playoffs.

We've not been the best, but we've shown that we can be. I really don't fear anyone in this competition.

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1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

On 4th March I put £9 on Villa to get promoted at 25-1. 

The bookies are offering cash out of £21 now.

They're shaking 😃

Probably a safe bet that the bookies can afford to lose £21 in order to save the probable loss of over £200.

Tell 'em they're dreaming. £50 minimum, and that's because you're a generous bastard!

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