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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Today will inevitably have taken a bit out of us physically and mentally so Forest to me is must not lose game (seeing as they are above us and won 3-0 yesterday). We actually played them after the first SHA game this season, the famous 5-5.

Boro is the one we need to be winning, we're long overdue a home win v them which is mad when we go up there every season and win comfortably.

I can see 6th on 71 or 72 points. We certainly should be capable of 20 points in the run in if we can keep everyone fit.

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2 hours ago, Keyblade said:

They added 100m worth of players and changed the whole team. I think if they largely kept their Championship core they would have done considerably better a la Cardiff.

Like us they had a lot of loan players so had no real choice but to buy over half a new team.  As we will need to regardless of what division we are in . We have to beat Forest then we can dare to dream surely ?! 

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41 minutes ago, villa89 said:

4 points off the playoffs and jacks back.

sopranos.png

Exactly how I feel. I’d lost the love a little bit recently but the last 2 games, and the love for Grealish and Mings has me going again. Aston Villa the cruel mistress. 

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Oh man I reallly hope we can beat forest on Wednesday. Extra satisfaction now they have MON in charge.

I'd completely forgotten about that. There is a score that needs settling right there. 

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3 hours ago, villa89 said:

Our run in is about as hard as it gets. Gonna be a miracle if we get into the playoffs 

In one way that's a good thing, because we play teams above us it means it's all in our own hands.

If we played teams below us we would have to rely on other teams slipping up.

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After the Scum game Aston Villa have 51 points out of a possible 108. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 30 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 81 points.

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Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 66 points that is points after 46 games. That has included of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.5PPG from Smith. Using 1.5PPG over the remaining 10 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th

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34 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

After the Scum game Aston Villa have 51 points out of a possible 108. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 30 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 81 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 66 points that is points after 46 games. That has included of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.5PPG from Smith. Using 1.5PPG over the remaining 10 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th

It may be time to introduce the ultra ambitious projection that takes PPG from Smith with Grealish, which is currently 23 points from 11 games (W7 D2 L2) = 2.1 PPG

 

Since the appointment of Dean Smith with Grealish fit the new projected points total would be 72 points after 46 games. That includes our 51 points now and projecting the current 2.1 PPG from Smith with Grealish fit over the remaining 10 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 8th (this isn't particularly relevant though).

 

Thought for the day: Grealish 😍

Edited by fightoffyour
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Betfair odds for Top 6 finish:

  • Bristol 7/5
  • Derby 19/10
  • Forest 14/5
  • Villa 3/1

Factoring in bookies' margin, I think that puts us on about a 15-20% chance of 6th place now. A lot shorter than it was a couple of weeks ago.

We're definitely in the mix.

And as for Dean Smith's PPG with Grealish - bear in mind he has also significantly improved the defence since he last had Grealish available (Axel's injury notwithstanding), so we could easily be looking at even higher than the 2.1 PPG mentioned above. The "tough" fixtures don't bother me, because several of them offer chances to take points off competitors for 6th place, and I think we're at our weakest in games we expect to win.

Summary: no, we probably won't go up. But it wouldn't be the craziest thing that's ever happened.

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3 hours ago, screwdriver said:

If we had a decent set of defenders last time we would have won 5-0.

We have this now.

I know we have not done well at the city ground since we come down but now Villa are a different animal. I think we can go there with no fear.

We have played 2 different styles now with jack back. It's almost as if smith has a championship manager style set up one for home and one for away.

We can go there with no fear and nick it.

All the shit that happened yesturday should have galvanised us. I saw Whelan getting stuck into the pitch invader, Hourihane giving it to some copper and Mings getting involved too. I was loving it! All this sort of strife is good and will strengthen their bond.

If you look back at the blues game we looked a bit rattled after the first half incident but we had the outstanding chances Gazi first half, Hourihane hit the bar, Greens header cleared off the line. So what Gardner has a couple of chances later the so called superstar che didnt turn up did he?   it was a comfortable 1 nil if you take away the emotions of the game. done a job.

We can go to forrest and do a job.

Grealish has 2 games under his belt, McGinn is back. Hause has slotted in well at centre half. We have momentum.  It's not barca away it's forrest. a team named after a tree. how scary is that.

These tablets are way better than the last set.

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