18/19 Race for Promotion

[kurtsimonw]

6 minutes ago, TheStagMan said:

Must be wrong then. Alex Bruce said that his dad had no money to spend and actually made money for the club (as well as being an unappreciated saviour and all round good guy) so transfermarket MUST be WRONG. 

Keep in mind that RDM had a big net spend, around £31m, then DS has a net spend of £6/7m for Kalinic.

Bruce did have a net profit of £17m or so, so he did make us money on transfers. Whether or not he did when you factor in wages, I've no idea.

[rubberman]

1 hour ago, kurtsimonw said:

It's still possible, statistically.

But we'd like need about 58 points from 22 games. That's only 8 points dropped for the remainder of the season. Winning 19, drawing 1 and losing 2. Or Winning 18, drawing 4, losing 0. I'd love to believe it could happen, but it seems impossible in reality. But you have to believe we could beat anyone we meet in the playoffs if we strengthen our weak areas.

New keeper + a couple of reinforcements in Jan then who knows... Looking at the rest of the season I'd worry about Leeds and Stoke away. No reason we can't win all the rest. Obviously highly unlikely that we will, but taken individually you'd fancy us going into them. 

No doubt this'll look foolish after a dodgy result tomorrow but I'm in an optimistic mood. 

[Junxs]

2 hours ago, kurtsimonw said:

Keep in mind that RDM had a big net spend, around £31m, then DS has a net spend of £6/7m for Kalinic.

Bruce did have a net profit of £17m or so, so he did make us money on transfers. Whether or not he did when you factor in wages, I've no idea.

Depends where you are getting your figures from.

Too many of these net spend calculations leave out wages and loan transfer fees.

For example Robert Snodgrass loan cost £2m for the season, plus we would have been paying him his wages on top. The season long deal would have cost around £4-5m in total. That's just 1 loan, we had loads under Bruce across the 3 seasons.

If these arent included in figures then you can see why Alex Bruce thinks his dad made a profit for us, taking away 15 transfers across the course of 3 seasons essentially.

[kurtsimonw]

6 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Depends where you are getting your figures from.

Too many of these net spend calculations leave out wages and loan transfer fees.

For example Robert Snodgrass loan cost £2m for the season, plus we would have been paying him his wages on top. The season long deal would have cost around £4-5m in total. That's just 1 loan, we had loads under Bruce across the 3 seasons.

If these arent included in figures then you can see why Alex Bruce thinks his dad made a profit for us, taking away 15 transfers across the course of 3 seasons essentially.

I just use transfermarkt for most stats/figures. It's not always going to be perfect, but at least it's a consistent base rather than picking figures from different places.

As for wages, nearly impossible to get any kind of figures for that, really. Which is why transfers in v transfers out is what people will generally look at.

[Junxs]

6 minutes ago, kurtsimonw said:

I just use transfermarkt for most stats/figures. It's not always going to be perfect, but at least it's a consistent base rather than picking figures from different places.

As for wages, nearly impossible to get any kind of figures for that, really. Which is why transfers in v transfers out is what people will generally look at.

Well thats exactly what I thought but didn't want to presume it or call you out for it without confirmation.

So you have basically ignored 15 or so deals and at the same time claimed Bruce made a profit during his time.

Considering the number of loan deals that Bruce sanctioned its no wander that certain people think he made a profit. Your figures will also show Terry as a £0 cost signing when in actuality his wages alone were £4m for the season, Samba £1-2m. All the loan players we would have had to pay a fee for the season along with taking up their wages. Johnstone x2, Tuanzebe x 2, Snodgrass, Onomah, Grabban, Abraham, Bolasie, El Ghazi, Moreira,*  - if you average each of those at £2.5m (fee+wages) per season thats £27.5m + Terry,Samba then you get roughly £32m across 3 seasons that you have completely omitted to claim Bruce made a £17m profit. 

This is also why I'm delighted Dean Smith has said he will not look to loan signings in the future. They cost more than a proper signing that Smith was used to at Brentford. 

* I might have even missed some players out as I was doing this from memory

[kurtsimonw]

17 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Well thats exactly what I thought but didn't want to presume it or call you out for it without confirmation.

So you have basically ignored 15 or so deals and at the same time claimed Bruce made a profit during his time.

Considering the number of loan deals that Bruce sanctioned its no wander that certain people think he made a profit. Your figures will also show Terry as a £0 cost signing when in actuality his wages alone were £4m for the season, Samba £1-2m. All the loan players we would have had to pay a fee for the season along with taking up their wages. Johnstone x2, Tuanzebe x 2, Snodgrass, Onomah, Grabban, Abraham, Bolasie, El Ghazi, Moreira,*  - if you average each of those at £2.5m (fee+wages) per season thats £27.5m + Terry,Samba then you get roughly £32m across 3 seasons that you have completely omitted to claim Bruce made a £17m profit. 

This is also why I'm delighted Dean Smith has said he will not look to loan signings in the future. They cost more than a proper signing that Smith was used to at Brentford. 

* I might have even missed some players out as I was doing this from memory

It's a swings and roundabouts thing with a lot of wage stuff though. We did loan in players, we also loaned out players and it's hard to know who's paying what. 

He also sold players signed off the back of Benteke money and other players signed when we were in the Prem. Selling Gestede, Ayew, Veretout, Amavi, Sanchez Kozak. Even Gana, Sinclair, Westwood, Traore, Cissokho, Gil. I imagine the wages of these players dwarfs what we paid out on the likes of Terry + loanees. 

But it's why I don't really look at wages. You never really know what's what, nobody does outside of the club. Transfer fees are usually a little more transparent. 

It's probably the wrong thread for this debate though. ONWARD AND UPWARD! 

[BigRed]

7 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Nah, random Leeds fans who appear to be somewhat obsessed with seeing us go out of business probably know more than our CEO.

I mean come on, think about it..............

Not really more like we’ve had these sorts of worries hanging over us numerous times in the last 15 years so this has been discussed to death with Leeds previously so we have a little more informed view on how it works. Rather than thinking a rich owner solves everything. Your guys might very well have a plan But we’ll have to wait & see what it is come the summer. 

[Keyblade]

6 hours ago, kurtsimonw said:

And it's why I don't think Bruce has done an awful job. In transfer costs, he made a net profit of £17m. I don't think reaching a playoff final was all that awful with the mess he had to pick up after.

It was time for him to go, but I certainly won't claim him to be the devil.

This gets repeated a lot, but completely ignores a very crucial point: wages. Also net spend isn't always a perfect indicator. Spurs net spend over the last few years has been close to zero if not a profit. You can't say they haven't assembled one of the best squads in the league though. 

We sold a lot of the squad that got relegated and replaced it with a very strong Championship squad. Whether or not that squad cost less than the one we sold, doesn't change the fact that it dwarfed almost every other team in this league.

[Jareth]

23 minutes ago, BigRed said:

Not really more like we’ve had these sorts of worries hanging over us numerous times in the last 15 years so this has been discussed to death with Leeds previously so we have a little more informed view on how it works. 

I honestly hope Leeds have some success so their fans can stop haunting other forums where they believe it's gone all Leeds. Every club is different, and always has been. 

[WakefieldVillan]

32 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I honestly hope Leeds have some success so their fans can stop haunting other forums where they believe it's gone all Leeds. Every club is different, and always has been. 

I hope they have NO success to be honest, I feel that their fans on here only started posting when it looked like we were going under and to rub it in, but now I am sounding bitter...

Which I am

 

[Junxs]

1 hour ago, kurtsimonw said:

It's a swings and roundabouts thing with a lot of wage stuff though. We did loan in players, we also loaned out players and it's hard to know who's paying what. 

He also sold players signed off the back of Benteke money and other players signed when we were in the Prem. Selling Gestede, Ayew, Veretout, Amavi, Sanchez Kozak. Even Gana, Sinclair, Westwood, Traore, Cissokho, Gil. I imagine the wages of these players dwarfs what we paid out on the likes of Terry + loanees. 

But it's why I don't really look at wages. You never really know what's what, nobody does outside of the club. Transfer fees are usually a little more transparent. 

It's probably the wrong thread for this debate though. ONWARD AND UPWARD! 

Dont dispute any of that, but at the same time you cant claim he made a 17m profit by ignoring 15 odd deals that would have cost £25-35m. Thats all I wanted to point out.

Agree its the wrong place to discuss it so we'll leave it and agree to disagree.

 

[The_Rev]

11 hours ago, rubberman said:

May be the Xmas celebrations ongoing but I still think top 2 is possible. A big ask sure, but Jan and Feb could see plenty of movement throughout the top10. 

 

Just looking at that in recent history: 

2017/18:  Automatic - 90 points, playoffs 75 points. 

2016/17: Automatic 93 points, playoffs 80 points.

2015/16: Automatic 89 points, playoffs 74 points. 

2014/15: Automatic 89 points, playoffs 78 points. 

2013/14: Automatic 93 points, playoffs 72 points. 

2012/13: Automatic 79 points, playoffs 68 points. 

2011/12: Automatic 88 points, playoffs 75 points. 

2010/11: Automatic 84 points, playoffs 75 points. 

 

You really want to be hitting a minimum of 90 points if you are looking to go up automatically.  we are sitting on 36 from 24 games played.  We need 54 points from 22 matches,  realistically we'd need  at least 16 wins between now and the end of the season to hit that kind of number.  Leeds only have 15 wins from 24 matches and they are keeping pace with what Wolves did last season.  I can't see us getting automatic, the run of one win in ten under Bruce/KMac killed us.  Playoffs should be the goal, and we've got to buck our ideas up to even hit those right now.  

[abdulaziz1]

56 minutes ago, The_Rev said:

 

Just looking at that in recent history: 

2017/18:  Automatic - 90 points, playoffs 75 points. 

2016/17: Automatic 93 points, playoffs 80 points.

2015/16: Automatic 89 points, playoffs 74 points. 

2014/15: Automatic 89 points, playoffs 78 points. 

2013/14: Automatic 93 points, playoffs 72 points. 

2012/13: Automatic 79 points, playoffs 68 points. 

2011/12: Automatic 88 points, playoffs 75 points. 

2010/11: Automatic 84 points, playoffs 75 points. 

 

You really want to be hitting a minimum of 90 points if you are looking to go up automatically.  we are sitting on 36 from 24 games played.  We need 54 points from 22 matches,  realistically we'd need  at least 16 wins between now and the end of the season to hit that kind of number.  Leeds only have 15 wins from 24 matches and they are keeping pace with what Wolves did last season.  I can't see us getting automatic, the run of one win in ten under Bruce/KMac killed us.  Playoffs should be the goal, and we've got to buck our ideas up to even hit those right now.  

Well with Grealish not being availabe is a big blow. But if we could hit a form of a winning streak everything is possible. We need to look at Norwich and WBA. 

And lets hope of a season similar to 2012/2013. It all depends on how all teams are doing. 

Usually winning streaks is always the difference. You’re saying we need 16 wins out of 22. But if we hit a form now and win our next 6 or 7, we would need 10 wins out of 16, which is very possible. 

Anyway, every game by itself and let’s see how it goes.

[GeordieVillan]

Good day so far! Let’s not now blow it.

3 points from 4th, 6 points from 3rd, 10 points from 2nd.

If you could ask only one more thing, it would be a Derby winner....we need Norwich and/or Leeds to get pulled back into the chasing pack...

[TRO]

I can see one of the top teams in the championship signing Bowen.

another trialist slipped through our fingers......we need to nip in.

[villalad21]

Threads title should be changed to race for getting into the top 6

[TrentVilla]

Any hope of automatic is long gone. We won’t make top 6 with this defence, changes needed.

I don’t blame Smith but I’m so utterly sick of us being shite and being let down by the same players.

[Alakagom]

That's 6 points dropped which we should have won with more luck. Cheated out of win against WBA, 2 offside goals not given vs Forrest and now Birkir insane miss. 

We will get Top 6, this side is really good, I just hope we don't miss automatics by few points or it'll be bitter feeling. 

[Mark Albrighton]

A missed opportunity to say the least. What is it with us and  ****ing December?

Not feeling confident of a win against QPR, I expect that will be a draw. Then a welcome break from the league and hopefully a few additions will put us in a healthier state.

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, Alakagom said:

That's 6 points dropped which we should have won with more luck. Cheated out of win against WBA, 2 offside goals not given vs Forrest and now Birkir insane miss. 

We will get Top 6, this side is really good, I just hope we don't miss automatics by few points or it'll be bitter feeling. 

Leeds also had 2 penalty claims turned down - and the BB miss wasn't luck  (Kjodia would have buried it ?) 

Top six depends on the window - but we aren't even playing well at the moment. We look knackered.