18/19 Race for Promotion

[Newry_Villan]

I think we will definitely seal a play off spot.  Keith Andrews was spot on with what he said post match. We have a plan, it seems to be working and the only way is up for us. If we don't go up, although I think we will, I will not put any blame on Smith. Defensive Bruceball will have cost us promotion, Smith has shown in such a short space of time how dangerous we are when we attack. Was Bruce afraid to attack with our squad?? Happy to nick a goal and sit back on it?? Feck that shit.  I'm so happy Smith is in charge. We are entertaining to watch and it's been a long time since anyone could say that. Long may it last. 

[Villarocker]

1 hour ago, hippo said:

....you do realise the gap to the top six in terms of points has shrunk very little ....whilst we have been chasing them ?

to close the gap we need back to back wins...at the mo ..its win/draw.

 

 

 

Bearing in mind the teams we have played, that is! 

When we play the teams lower down the league we will see this Villa side winning 4,5,6 games on the trot before throwing in a draw.

Our recent points return is good considering the opposition. It would be interesting to know how the current top six have fared in the same games we've played since Smith arrived. 

[Villarocker]

11 minutes ago, villarocker said:

Bearing in mind the teams we have played, that is! 

When we play the teams lower down the league we will see this Villa side winning 4,5,6 games on the trot before throwing in a draw.

Our recent points return is good considering the opposition. It would be interesting to know how the current top six have fared in the same games we've played since Smith arrived. 

To partially answer my own question; from our last 5 games (arguably the hardest we've faced in Smith's time here) we have taken 11 points. This is how the teams above us have compared: 

Norwich = 8 points

Leeds = 5 points

Sheffield United = 1 point (from 4 games - yet to play WBA)

Derby = 7 points (from 3 games. They can't include themselves and haven't played Forest yet)

WBA = 2 points (from 4 games - can't include themselves)

Middlesbrough = 7 points (from 4 games - can't include themselves)

Forest = 5 points (from 3 games. They can't include themselves and haven't played Derby yet) 

So, if you replace us with the team we faced, and factor in those results as replacements, none of the teams above us have gotten more points that us when comparing our last five results. 

When our opponents get easier, the wins will flow. 

[Demitri_C]

What's annoying is we have Norwich last game of the season. I'd love to play them in the next month just to put them in their place.

[Villarocker]

16 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

What's annoying is we have Norwich last game of the season. I'd love to play them in the next month just to put them in their place.

Yeah, they could be already up by the time we play them. Playing them sooner, and beating them, may well have dented some confidence. 

They've got their hardest batch of fixtures all coming in December and January. If they are still near the top come February 1st, they'll probably go on to win the league as their run-in is quite easy, apart from playing us of course. 

Their upcoming fixtures include away trips to Blackburn, Brentford and Albion. They also have home games against Forest, Derby, SHA & Sheffield United. They've conceded quite a few at home recently so they may just drop some points against those visiting teams. 

[villa82]

Form last 10 games, top 9:

Norwich 25 points

Leeds      20

SheffU     15

Derby      20

WBA        15

M'boro     14

Nott F     18

Villa        17

Birmingham 19

To finish top 2, we need more than 2 points pr game. 60 points from the next 25 games give us 92 points. Norwich and Leeds are set for 92 points IF they finish the season as they started. 

92 points for us are  18 wins, draw 6 and only lose 1. Or, for every four games from now we win 3 and 1 draw.

[Dodgyknees]

We were really hamstrung by Bruce and his terrible football. Losing points to the teams we did will be what costs us - because we now can't afford slip-ups. I've noticed some who backed Bruce are picking up on the Forest and West Brom game as reasons we will fall behind - forgetting that Bruce had already left us with a mountain to climb. Added to that, his destruction of the defence and failure to sign a decent keeper has also left us with massive problems.

We're the best team in the league by far, and yet the previous manager had people thinking we were plucky Aston Villa. Shameful.

[Tomaszk]

18 minutes ago, villa82 said:

Form last 10 games, top 9:

Norwich 25 points

Leeds      20

SheffU     15

Derby      20

WBA        15

M'boro     14

Nott F     18

Villa        17

Birmingham 19

To finish top 2, we need more than 2 points pr game. 60 points from the next 25 games give us 92 points. Norwich and Leeds are set for 92 points IF they finish the season as they started. 

92 points for us are  18 wins, draw 6 and only lose 1. Or, for every four games from now we win 3 and 1 draw.

I think we could do it if we put another keeper in. Whoever Sarkic, Moreira. This guy is broken. It's basic errors costing us goals.

I think we'll be playoffs though.

[Mark Albrighton]

55 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

What's annoying is we have Norwich last game of the season. I'd love to play them in the next month just to put them in their place.

Yeah that would be good. The only plus I can think of is if they are promoted by then, there’s every chance they’ll be on the beach like Wolves were in their final game against Sunderland last season. 

[claretman]

I think it's play offs. 

I'm not sure if they've already been quoted but there were some stats on the Sky Sports website a couple of days ago about 'who can get promoted'.  In 7 of the last 10 seasons the top two after 20 games have gone up.  Also, the team top after 21 games has always gone on to get promoted which suggests that Norwich are well set.

My concern would be that Leeds have normally started their decline by now; the game with them on the 23rd December is massive.

The stat to cling to is that the lowest position of the Champions after 20 games is Sunderland who were 14th in 2006/2007 after 20 games.

 

 

 

 

[VillaChris]

17 hours ago, Eastie said:

Long way to go yet ,  wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Norwich and Leeds both go a few games without a win - neither have much strength in depth - I’d still fear West Brom and stoke but no way are villa out of this automatic race yet - long way to go and things can change greatly in 3 games -  Norwich and Leeds are there now but I’d be far from confident that either will be in the top 2 come  May .

If you look at Norwich results they've just had  a kind run of fixtures. Relegation candidates like Millwall, Rotherham and Bolton have been their last 3 home games and two of those they needed 95th minute winner.

I think they have 2 wins v top 8 teams this season and also beat us in DS second game when we were barely top half. Over next two months their fixture list gets much harder so very confident we'll narrow the gap significantly.

With Leeds they have impressive attack but shed load of injuries. I read their captain Liam Cooper, Stuart Dallas and Ayling all out for 6 weeks so they'll struggle to put out an experienced back 4 against us so got to fancy our front three + Grealish in that game to cause damage. I expect us to beat them.

[VillaChris]

Norwich results against "top" teams so far:

Norwich 3-4 West Brom
Sheffield United 2-1 Norwich
Norwich 0-3 leeds
Norwich 1-0 Boro
Derby 1-1 Norwich
Norwich 0-1 Stoke
Forest 1-2 Norwich
Norwich 2-1 Villa

From now up to start of February they've got Derby, Forest, West Brom, Sheffield United and Leeds so confident that 10 point gap will be significantly eroded.

[Nigel]

Next weekend is going to be get interesting!  All the top teams either play each other or go to tricky away grounds.

This could be the day we catch back on a good few teams.....As long as we win of course!

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, villa82 said:

Form last 10 games, top 9:

Norwich 25 points

Leeds      20

SheffU     15

Derby      20

WBA        15

M'boro     14

Nott F     18

Villa        17

Birmingham 19

To finish top 2, we need more than 2 points pr game. 60 points from the next 25 games give us 92 points. Norwich and Leeds are set for 92 points IF they finish the season as they started. 

92 points for us are  18 wins, draw 6 and only lose 1. Or, for every four games from now we win 3 and 1 draw.

100 quid to this site if Norwich AND Leeds finish this season on 90 + points.

We're nearly halfway through the season and they're only just above 40 and getting lucky wins, pretty sure in last two seasons Wolves and Newcastle have been on 50 points at this stage of the season.

[VillaChris]

9 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Next weekend is going to be get interesting!  All the top teams either play each other or go to tricky away grounds.

This could be the day we catch back on a good few teams.....As long as we win of course!

Nailed on Stoke win then. Seems as ever in the championship when we win or pick up a good point, all other top teams win and when in the earlier part of the season we were barely winning under SB no one was really pulling away.

Most important thing in next few weeks is we beat Leeds to reel them back into the pack.

[Tomaszk]

24 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Norwich results against "top" teams so far:

Norwich 3-4 West Brom
Sheffield United 2-1 Norwich
Norwich 0-3 leeds
Norwich 1-0 Boro
Derby 1-1 Norwich
Norwich 0-1 Stoke
Forest 1-2 Norwich
Norwich 2-1 Villa

From now up to start of February they've got Derby, Forest, West Brom, Sheffield United and Leeds so confident that 10 point gap will be significantly eroded.

Basically the opposite of our season so far.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

21 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Nailed on Stoke win then. Seems as ever in the championship when we win or pick up a good point, all other top teams win and when in the earlier part of the season we were barely winning under SB no one was really pulling away.

Most important thing in next few weeks is we beat Leeds to reel them back into the pack.

I know what you mean, it is the Villa way.

However I must admit, i've got more confidence in this team to break the cycle.

Just feels different, we don't feel like bottlers anymore.

We are not the finished article but we are certainly on the way..

[AvfcRigo82]

On 08/11/2018 at 11:57, AvfcRigo82 said:

Accidently posted this in the Dean Smith thread and probably best here.

Our next 9 games are: Rams(a), SHA(h), Forest(h), Boro(a), Baggies(a), Stoke(h), Leeds(h), Swans(a), PNE(a).

If we are to mount a challenge for promotion on any level this season then we ideally want to be aiming to collect 21pts from the potential 27pts available in these fixtures. They are by no means easy games in this run so we will need to be on song.

So far so good.  

[The Fun Factory]

Given our poor start we need no slip up football until May to get top 2, and fairly decent form even to get a playoff spot. We are improving but yet again playing catch up. This division is so much about momentum as Norwich are doing, and what Cardiff and Huddersfield have done in the last 2. 

[romavillan]

2 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

So far so good.  

Yeah but to get 21pts from this sequence we need to win 3 and draw one of Stoke(h), Leeds(h), Swansea(a) and PNE(a). 

That's a really tough ask, probably more likely 2 wins and 2 draws if we do manage to not get beat. Which would give us 19 points from that tough 9 game run, which is better than 2 points a game still....