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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Long way to go yet ,  wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Norwich and Leeds both go a few games without a win - neither have much strength in depth - I’d still fear West Brom and stoke but no way are villa out of this automatic race yet - long way to go and things can change greatly in 3 games -  Norwich and Leeds are there now but I’d be far from confident that either will be in the top 2 come  May .

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To get top 2 we need to maintain the form we have other the last 6 games. There are 75 points to play for and we are going to need to get around 55-58 of them. We can therefore afford to drop 17-20 points over the rest of the season. Last six games we have dropped 4 points.  Times that by 4 so 24 games and if we maintain the same form we'd drop 16 points. We've took those points over the last six games with five games against teams in the top 10,  four of which are in the top 6.  

With a couple of reinforcements in January I think we can maintain what we have done over the last six games and get into top 2.

Edited by markavfc40
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Leeds have already shown their strength in depth - had some bad injuries so far. I think they're the front runners.

I reckon Norwich are this years Bristol City. Everyone raving about them and their sexy football - they'll have a sticky spell and struggle to turn it around.

Top 6 is anyone's for the taking - we should be in there as long as our squad stays pretty much the same. If we improve it (i.e a goalkeeper that doesn't have his hands sewn on right for left) then I think we can push the top 2.

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8 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

This is Cardiff/Wolves "will drop points" all over again.

 

I see Leeds more likely to slip off than Norwich. Leeds aren't blowing teams away, they get away with narrow victories most of the time

Do i think we will catch them? No, but they are the most realistic to catch of the 2

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Norwich are looking good, they’re grinding out the results and haven’t been beaten in a while.

However, between now and the start of February, Norwich have away fixtures against Bristol, Blackburn, Brentford, WBA and Leeds.

Their home fixtures are Forest, Derby, Small heath and Sheff Utd. 

Seven out of nine games against current top half opposition, five of those against sides gunning for automatic promotion.

If they still have around ten point lead over us after that run and our (comparatively easier on paper) run, then I will accept that us catching them is just not going to happen and fair play to them.

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11 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

I see Leeds more likely to slip off than Norwich. Leeds aren't blowing teams away, they get away with narrow victories most of the time

Do i think we will catch them? No, but they are the most realistic to catch of the 2

Not to be too pedantic, like I say they’re getting the results. But Norwich aren’t blowing away teams either, nine of their thirteen wins have been by a goal margin.

They can certainly score goals, no question there, but by and large they’re not thrashing teams.

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Derby (A)

SHA (H)

Forest (H)

Boro (A)

West Brom (A)

11 points from these 5 fixtures (could have and should have been 15). Those are the current 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th placed teams including 2 derbies.

We are like Fulham last year, we're smashing everyone, we don't discriminate. If our rivals can do the same thing then fair play, we probably won't catch them. But I don't see any of them doing it.

I can easily see us eroding those 10 points after the other teams get a tricky run off fixtures like we're currently in. We still have to play Leeds twice, Norwich, Derby, Boro, Sheffield United and West Brom at home. 

Even if we do miss out on autos, who's really betting against us in the playoffs? 

Edited by Keyblade
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3 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Derby (A)

SHA (H)

Forest (H)

Boro (A)

West Brom (A)

11 points from these 5 fixtures (could have and should have been 15). Those are the current 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th placed teams including 2 derbies.

We are like Fulham last year, we're smashing everyone, we don't discriminate. If our rivals can do the same thing then fair play, we probably won't catch them. But I don't see any of them doing it.

I can easily see us eroding those 10 points after the other teams get a tricky run off fixtures like we're currently in. We still have to play Leeds twice, Norwich, Derby, Boro, Sheffield United and West Brom at home. 

Even if we do miss out on autos, who's really betting against us in the playoffs? 

Yes 3rd and 5th Forest goal was Nyland's fault. Baggies 2nd goal Nylands fault as well.

If we only had a better keeper.

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18 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Derby (A)

SHA (H)

Forest (H)

Boro (A)

West Brom (A)

11 points from these 5 fixtures (could have and should have been 15). Those are the current 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th placed teams including 2 derbies.

We are like Fulham last year, we're smashing everyone, we don't discriminate. If our rivals can do the same thing then fair play, we probably won't catch them. But I don't see any of them doing it.

I can easily see us eroding those 10 points after the other teams get a tricky run off fixtures like we're currently in. We still have to play Leeds twice, Norwich, Derby, Boro, Sheffield United and West Brom at home. 

Even if we do miss out on autos, who's really betting against us in the playoffs? 

11 points from that run is very good, it's more than 2 points a game through some very tough fixtures. Pre Smith we were all cacking it comign in to this run, fearing the end of our season. As it stands, we're 4 points off the playoffs with more than half a season left and 10 points off automatic promotion. Keeping this kind of level of performance up, or even better continuing to improve (there's room for it, the players understanding Smith's ideas more, a few signings) then we are going to go on a BIG run through an easier set of fixtures. I'd back us to be safely in the play off places come end of next month, and in a position to do the unthinkable (well it was not so long ago).

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