Made In Aston Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Seeing as we are using Fulham as our yardstick, after 22 games they had 29 points and were in 12.They didn't lose again until the last day of the season. No pressure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 hours ago, turvontour said: We've already played the bottom ten once this season and only won one of the games. Unfortunately this means that we have to beat the top teams now for us to be anywhere near the top. We surrendered\wrote off about 20-25% of our season in Bruce's last ten games. We've still got over half the season left though. For the most part we are beating the top teams - drawing away at top 4 teams like West Brom is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: Seeing as we are using Fulham as our yardstick, after 22 games they had 29 points and were in 12.They didn't lose again until the last day of the season. No pressure! When you put that into perspective it actually makes me a bit more positive. I'd be interested to know how many of those games were draws? I'm confident we can beat every team in this division, plus we have a couple more points. So going unbeaten and turning over one or 2 more wins than Fulham would see us top 2? Obviously still a long shot, personally I think we will be 3 - 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 How many of the loan signings do you think will stay we we get promoted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted December 8, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: When you put that into perspective it actually makes me a bit more positive. I'd be interested to know how many of those games were draws? I'm confident we can beat every team in this division, plus we have a couple more points. So going unbeaten and turning over one or 2 more wins than Fulham would see us top 2? Obviously still a long shot, personally I think we will be 3 - 5th. Fulham won 18, drew 5 and felt sorry for small heath once in their final 24 matches. The teams they drew with were Hull, Bolton, Bristol City, QPR and Brentford. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: Seeing as we are using Fulham as our yardstick, after 22 games they had 29 points and were in 12.They didn't lose again until the last day of the season. No pressure! We are making next seasons yardstick for another team who will be saying last season after Villa lost to QPR they had played 15 games, had 18 points and were in 17th. They didn't lose again all season and went up automatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deeps Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Long way to go yet. There’s still just over half a season left! We have the squad and the right man in charge. KTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 hours ago, BOF said: I don't get you. What was the sheet? If i had it before then I'll still have it for this season. I just need more info on what it was. Do you mean like a strength of schedule type table? It was a mini leagues for the top half teams but based on their matches against each other’s . The second mini league was based on the top halves teams matches against bottom half teams. It was brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 52 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: When you put that into perspective it actually makes me a bit more positive. I'd be interested to know how many of those games were draws? I'm confident we can beat every team in this division, plus we have a couple more points. So going unbeaten and turning over one or 2 more wins than Fulham would see us top 2? Obviously still a long shot, personally I think we will be 3 - 5th. Me too and it’s felt like we’ve had to do that since Smith took over to get us back in the mix and most of our games have been against promotion contenders. But in realty once we get in to Jan we just have to beat all those teams below us and then can afford to drop points against better teams. Im looking at our future after the leeds games and they are all games we are now expected to win. I’m talking 7 out of 7. What would be really disappointing is after getting points against teams like Derby, Boro and Albion we then go and drop points against teams like Ipswich, Wigan and Reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cjay Posted December 8, 2018 Visiting Supporter Popular Post Share Posted December 8, 2018 (edited) Had a peek to see the average totals needed for top 2 and playoffs. The average points total for the playoffs is roughly 77.6 points. . Slightly more or less depending on where in the playoffs but 77.6 points on average is enough. That works out at a season average of 1.68ppg. 2nd place average is apparently 87 points, that works out at an average 1.89ppg. Finally 1st is 94 points which is 2.04ppg over the season. For you to get top now based on that you would need to average 2.48ppg from now. For context Fulham averaged 2.36 from game 22 on and Wolves averaged 2.04. You would need the highest ppg over the final 25 games in Championship history, Leicester got 2.4 ppg in there promotion season. Interestingly if Norwich continue at there season average then 2.4ppg is exactly what youd need as they are on target for 92 points and 2.4ppg over 25 games for you would be 92 points. For us to get top we need 2.11ppg (our season average is 1.95 which is enough for 2nd not quite enough for top) although win tomorrow and we reach 2ppg. To get 2nd we need 1.84ppg ( you need 2.2ppg. Finally for playoffs we need 1.46ppg and you need 1.8ppg. At present under Smith you average 1.88ppg which is 47 points, a total of 79 which is enough for the playoffs. The season averages were slightly higher then usual last season, 80points for playoffs, 99 for 1st 90 for 2nd. Edited December 8, 2018 by Cjay 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted December 8, 2018 Moderator Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: It was a mini leagues for the top half teams but based on their matches against each other’s . The second mini league was based on the top halves teams matches against bottom half teams. It was brilliant! Ah yes. I can still do that yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We will win the division, I've never been more confident of anything with Villa. The way we're making the supposed best sides in this division look very ordinary is beyond impressive. Taking away the fact that the equaliser should never have stood last night, we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals clear at that point. Whilst we have errors in us (comes with the level we're at right now) there's an type of imperiousness to our play that I have not seen for a long long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BOF Posted December 8, 2018 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted December 8, 2018 Top half teams versus top half opposition Top half teams versus bottom half opposition The interesting thing is the fact we've played 7 of our 9 games in the top table SINCE Smith joined the club. We only played 2 of those sides under Bruce, emphasising the incredibly kind start to the season he got and we drew and lost those 2 games. Smith has only been here for 9 games, and in that time only 2of his opponents, Bolton & Swansea, currently reside in the bottom half, and at that Swansea are 13th. It's been an incredible turnaround but when you factor the opposition into account it has been nothing short of miraculous. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: We will win the division, I've never been more confident of anything with Villa. The way we're making the supposed best sides in this division look very ordinary is beyond impressive. Taking away the fact that the equaliser should never have stood last night, we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals clear at that point. Whilst we have errors in us (comes with the level we're at right now) there's an type of imperiousness to our play that I have not seen for a long long time. Again, this simply goes against basic maths to say this at this point. Unless we are guaranteed to win every game from now until the end of the season. Even then, you would have to assume that the teams above us could also do the same. Except they wouldn't even need to do anything close to that to consolidate their positions in the table. Edited December 8, 2018 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, BOF said: Top half teams versus top half opposition Top half teams versus bottom half opposition The interesting thing is the fact we've played 7 of our 9 games in the top table SINCE Smith joined the club. We only played 2 of those sides under Bruce, emphasising the incredibly kind start to the season he got and we drew and lost those 2 games. Smith has only been here for 9 games, and in that time only 2of his opponents, Bolton & Swansea, currently reside in the bottom half, and at that Swansea are 13th. It's been an incredible turnaround but when you factor the opposition into account it has been nothing short of miraculous. Begs the question as well... What the hell are we going to do at the end of Jan when we play Wigan, Hull, Ipswich, Reading all in a row? We could realistically score 20 goals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted December 8, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 8, 2018 42 minutes ago, Cjay said: Had a peek to see the average totals needed for top 2 and playoffs. The average points total for the playoffs is roughly 77.6 points. . Slightly more or less depending on where in the playoffs but 77.6 points on average is enough. That works out at a season average of 1.68ppg. 2nd place average is apparently 87 points, that works out at an average 1.89ppg. Finally 1st is 94 points which is 2.04ppg over the season. For you to get top now based on that you would need to average 2.48ppg from now. For context Fulham averaged 2.36 from game 22 on and Wolves averaged 2.04. You would need the highest ppg over the final 25 games in Championship history, Leicester got 2.4 ppg in there promotion season. Interestingly if Norwich continue at there season average then 2.4ppg is exactly what youd need as they are on target for 92 points and 2.4ppg over 25 games for you would be 92 points. For us to get top we need 2.11ppg (our season average is 1.95 which is enough for 2nd not quite enough for top) although win tomorrow and we reach 2ppg. To get 2nd we need 1.84ppg ( you need 2.2ppg. Finally for playoffs we need 1.46ppg and you need 1.8ppg. At present under Smith you average 1.88ppg which is 47 points, a total of 79 which is enough for the playoffs. The season averages were slightly higher then usual last season, 80points for playoffs, 99 for 1st 90 for 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 53 minutes ago, BOF said: Top half teams versus top half opposition Top half teams versus bottom half opposition The interesting thing is the fact we've played 7 of our 9 games in the top table SINCE Smith joined the club. We only played 2 of those sides under Bruce, emphasising the incredibly kind start to the season he got and we drew and lost those 2 games. Smith has only been here for 9 games, and in that time only 2of his opponents, Bolton & Swansea, currently reside in the bottom half, and at that Swansea are 13th. It's been an incredible turnaround but when you factor the opposition into account it has been nothing short of miraculous. I love these tables. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: Begs the question as well... What the hell are we going to do at the end of Jan when we play Wigan, Hull, Ipswich, Reading all in a row? We could realistically score 20 goals. We better bloody beat them all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'm confident in this team through a possible play off though. Difference between Bruce and Smith is, Bruce is playing not to lose while Smith is playing to win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted December 8, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 8, 2018 Top 2 will be difficult, no matter how well it goes from now we have begun the season completely handicapped. Play-offs however and I would be VERY confident, under DS we have become unbeatable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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