18/19 Race for Promotion

[Demitri_C]

28 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So it’s not a great squad is it mate? Sort out keeper, centre half and left back situation and then you can say we have a great squad. 

We should have 1 quality player and 1 adequate player for every position. Then it’s s strong squad.

I think it’s a great squad just lacking in defence. If and it’s a big if nyland gets better then we are only 2-3 players away from being title contenders.

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I think it’s a great squad just lacking in defence. If and it’s a big if nyland gets better then we are only 2-3 players away from being title contenders.

 

I feel like we’re going around in circles here mate. You can’t say it’s a great squad but we’re lacking in defence. A great squad can’t be lacking in any area! 

[Junxs]

5 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

I agree I would rather see a team like Norwich or sheff united win it than boro if it wasn't us. 

It just shows what a fatal error it was keeping bruce. Who knows where we might be now had smith been here? Although the other way to look at it is would we have had Abraham and bolaise here if smith was here?

I doubt it. Bruce built a great squad just didn't know how to use them.

Not exactly used the best examples there, 2 loan players who havent really got firing yet. Surely McGinn is the example to use rather than a player who hasnt started a game yet and one who struggles to finish.

You keep mentioning Nyland is costing us points with mistakes, but strikers missing sitters also costs points. For example if Nyland hadnt pulled off those saves before we even scored who knows what the outcome would have been? then we'd be pointing out that we missed big chances to take the lead.

And whos to say Smith wouldnt have signed better players on permanent deals anyway? we could have been sitting on top of the table now.

Guess we'll never know, but if we narrowly miss out it will be down to the first 3rd of the season under Bruce where our form was abysmal - that we can all agree on

[Merson08]

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

[Vive_La_Villa]

2 hours ago, Merson08 said:

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

get to 2 points a game under Smith and we’d finish on 82 points. Could be enough for automatic promotion this year. 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Vive_La_Villa

[fightoffyour]

On 12/11/2018 at 10:11, Merson08 said:

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

I appreciate these posts. I would like to ask that you think about also including a projection excluding the BS (Before Smith / Bullshit) era, as I think we'll see a significant upturn that would warrant a different (better) expected points total.

[Mazrim]

For all we know, 80 points wins the league this year. Its a dogfight and may well be all the way in with the top 10 or 12 regularly taking points off eachother. Its wide open for a team to put a good run on. Why not Villa.

[Merson08]

1 hour ago, fightoffyour said:

I appreciate these posts. I would like to ask that you think about also including a projection excluding the BS (Before Smith / Bullshit) era, as I think we'll see a significant upturn that would warrant a different (better) expected points total.

As requested:

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (BS or Before Smith/Bullshit era) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8 PPG from the Saviour (AS or After Saviour era). Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 29 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 5th.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Merson08

[fightoffyour]

2 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

As requested:

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (BS or Before Smith/Bullshit era) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8 PPG from the Saviour (AS or After Saviour era). Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 29 games. 

Amazing, thanks.

[Mazrim]

Which will only improve I fancy. I have us down for 86 points after strengthening in Jan too. I reckon thats either 1st or 2nd. Most likely 1st.

[Merson08]

I tried to add an algorithm to project a points total using Dean Smiths limited results as the data. It finished with us on 90 points and 1st spot. To be fair, its complete rubbish at the moment as the data is too limited and I can't add SB's results as while they are concrete it just cannot be used as him and his team are no longer here! 

Either way the result was 90 points, get the beers ready!

[WakefieldVillan]

I was browsing the Leeds forum yesterday and noticed this comment from one of their supporters which I found quite interesting (and pleasing) to hear;

"I went to the Derby vs Villa game on Saturday. Derby were disappointing considering how good they have looked..............it was noticeable though that Mount was injured and Waghorn was out (not a great player but a physical presence).

Villa looked a top 2 side in the 2nd half, they were all over Derby. Grealish, Hourihane & McGinn ran the game. Abrahams will score loads if kept fit. The most worrying thing was that Bolasie was on the bench...........he ripped Derby apart when he came on and put 2 goals on a plate for them.

It was only one game but if Smith gets them going their squad is far superior to most others that a top 2 spot will be a stick on. Derby seemed similar to us which seems commonplace. You could see they had some quality but the final third they were poor and missed Mount big time."

Nice to see our promotion rivals see us a threat! 

[BOF]

Over the next 7 games, it's probably not surprising to learn that by average league position we have the toughest run in the league.  But it's precisely because of this that it will define our season, as it's against most of the big hitters and also that lot from down the road.  However, we could scarcely have asked to be in better form going into this crucial period and if injuries allow, we could be in for a thrilling few months.

The average league position of our next 7 opponents is 7.29, and even that's distorted by the 12th place of the noses (which is a tougher game than 12th suggests).

In contrast over the same period, top placed Norwich go up against an average of 14.43 in the league and second placed Boro are up against 14.29.  Ranking 4th and 5th easiest runs over the period.

If we work it based on the form table, things improve slightly for us, giving us the 3rd most difficult run of 9.86.  Either way, we've a lot of football still to play in 2018 and while "you play everyone twice over a season"* this does seem to be a particularly significant run of games.

 

* I **** hate that lazy-ass statement when discussing fixture lists.

[Stevo985]

Yeah you can't use projected points if you're just going to base it off all of our results so far. Otherwise you may as well just look at the current table.

You have to split it by pre/post Smith, imo. But there's still probably too many variables at this stage for it to mean much.

[wilko154]

On 11/11/2018 at 12:36, daggy_333 said:

After 17 games last season we had 29 points so we're 5 short at this point this season. Interestingly we are 9 points off top now which is the same amount of points as we were away from Wolves after 17 matches.

After 17 games last season we had 29 points. In our next 6 games we went on to take 9 points leaving us with 38 points.

Sunderland W, Ipswich W, Leeds D, Millwall D, Derby L, Sheff U D

 

After 17 games this season we have 24 points. In our next 6 games I would be dissapointed to not take 14 points leaving us with 38 points and on an even keel with last season.

Blose, Forest, Boro, Baggies, Stoke, Leeds

 

From that point on it's all about keeping winning runs going instead of stuttering like last season and winning games over drawing them. A plus is also the fact that we will have had much more time under Smith and a January transfer window approaching to strengthen the squad.

[sparrow1988]

1 hour ago, Merson08 said:

As requested:

After the Derby game Aston Villa have 24 points out of a possible 51. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 87 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (BS or Before Smith/Bullshit era) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8 PPG from the Saviour (AS or After Saviour era). Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 29 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 5th.

 

47 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

I tried to add an algorithm to project a points total using Dean Smiths limited results as the data. It finished with us on 90 points and 1st spot. To be fair, its complete rubbish at the moment as the data is too limited and I can't add SB's results as while they are concrete it just cannot be used as him and his team are no longer here! 

Either way the result was 90 points, get the beers ready!

 

13 minutes ago, BOF said:

Over the next 7 games, it's probably not surprising to learn that by average league position we have the toughest run in the league.  But it's precisely because of this that it will define our season, as it's against most of the big hitters and also that lot from down the road.  However, we could scarcely have asked to be in better form going into this crucial period and if injuries allow, we could be in for a thrilling few months.

The average league position of our next 7 opponents is 7.29, and even that's distorted by the 12th place of the noses (which is a tougher game than 12th suggests).

In contrast over the same period, top placed Norwich go up against an average of 14.43 in the league and second placed Boro are up against 14.29.  Ranking 4th and 5th easiest runs over the period.

If we work it based on the form table, things improve slightly for us, giving us the 3rd most difficult run of 9.86.  Either way, we've a lot of football still to play in 2018 and while "you play everyone twice over a season"* this does seem to be a particularly significant run of games.

 

* I **** hate that lazy-ass statement when discussing fixture lists.

 

8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Yeah you can't use projected points if you're just going to base it off all of our results so far. Otherwise you may as well just look at the current table.

You have to split it by pre/post Smith, imo. But there's still probably too many variables at this stage for it to mean much.

All this talk of projections, averages and variables has given me a hard on. Can someone please pull out the expected goals and expected points for the league so far and then project that forward to the ned of the season. It might just tip me over the edge.

[Merson08]

30 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

 

 

 

All this talk of projections, averages and variables has given me a hard on. Can someone please pull out the expected goals and expected points for the league so far and then project that forward to the ned of the season. It might just tip me over the edge.

Do you need a tissue good sir?

[sparrow1988]

27 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

Do you need a tissue good sir?

Not quite. I need the combined expected goals and point tables first. Preferrably, with an option to click either expected goals or points so that the tables automatically realign based on the data chosen. Then I would just explode. 

[Junxs]

If we are doing a side by side comparison to last season it's worth remembering we only picked up 11 points from our last 10 games after thrashing wolves. 

We only finished 7 points (83) off autos (90 points) however this season I don't think it would require as many as 90 to finish 2nd

[Vive_La_Villa]

Sneaky fiver at 20-1. Stranger things have happened...