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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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18 hours ago, John said:

I agree that our current situation is the better long term one. I do think that we would have used some of the SKY money to add to the squad but most likely not enough. I myself, would have kept Johnstone rather than Grabban but at best we would have faced a relegation battle rather than the late potential promotion run we now hope for. 

Forgot about Johnstone! Yep definately, the most missed player out of all of them currently.

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20 hours ago, wilko154 said:

I disagree

We would have received the Sky money and possibly kept hold of Terry, Grabban, Snodgrass however... the sky money would have papered over all of the Tony Xia cracks and we would still be in the dark over the financial difficulties he was having running the club. The major investment we would have needed to stay in the Premier League wouldn't have been possible due to having to retain most of the money in order to pay the bills.

The best outcome possible for Aston Villa last season was losing that playoff final so that the club could be fixed from the ground up, a process that will probably take 2-3 years to implement.

Agree. Promotion last season would have been a disaster for the club in my opinion. Wyness would have continued his plans to expand stadium.  The club would have still been poorly run. We would have got relegated with a 50k. stadium, massively over inflated wage bill and even more debts than the club could handle. 

Losing in the playoff final was a blessing in disguise. 

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1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Agree. Promotion last season would have been a disaster for the club in my opinion. Wyness would have continued his plans to expand stadium.  The club would have still been poorly run. We would have got relegated with a 50k. stadium, massively over inflated wage bill and even more debts than the club could handle. 

Losing in the playoff final was a blessing in disguise. 

I totally agree with you.

We would have set ourselves up for an ultimate disaster.

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1 minute ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

We really pissed away the beginning of the season didn't we?

We did.  But it’s a crazy league this year.

We dropped so many points against teams we should be beating and now we have a run of games against teams we don’t expect to beat. So much can happen. 

We are 6 points behind second . It’s madness! 

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15 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

We did.  But it’s a crazy league this year.

We dropped so many points against teams we should be beating and now we have a run of games against teams we don’t expect to beat. So much can happen. 

We are 6 points behind second . It’s madness! 

Positive is if we turn on the style, and win the next run off games, we pull in and leapfrog a number of them above us.

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12 hours ago, villa89 said:

The next six fixtures could decide our season. It's about as tough as it can get 

I agree that based on form this season the next few games are tough, but i honestly don't fear anyone in this league. I'm not saying we will win all 6, but i wouldn't be too suprised if we did. 

I still believe that Smith will at least deliver a top 6 finish this season. 

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This year is a lot more open than last. I don’t see a side (apart from us), like wolves, Cardiff or Fulham who can go on those long winning runs. As such I think promotion is entirely possible still 

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I don't think we'll be fazed by the upcoming fixtures. They are against teams above us but that just means it is a great opportunity to claw back the gap to them. I am sure that is how Smith will be seeing it. He goes into every game looking to win it and given we are better going forward than defensively that has to be the best way for us to play against the better sides.

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2 hours ago, Tommo_b said:

6 points off second, game on! 

Everyone has a game in hand, so we are like to to be 7 - 9 points off minimum by the end of today.

As usual, we need to just focus on climbing steadily and pulling points off the teams directly above and around us first.

The "6 points off second" while factual, is a false narrative for me currently.

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I am not sure the way to look it is that we are so many points of play offs or automatic. Probably better to think what it will take to make top 6/top 2.

I'd estimate it will take no more than 75 to make play offs. That means we'd need 54 points from 30 games so say 16 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats.  

Being as no one seems capable of pulling away never mind two sides I think around 86 points would get top 2 so we'd need another 65 points so for us 20 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats.

Automatic I'd say is out of reach but play offs is still certainly achievable. 

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I don't think we will get promoted this year.

However, im perfectly fine with this, I think the club and team development is more important, I think with two transfer windows and a pre season, we will hopefully be very good next year.

If we do happen to get promoted this season I see it as more of a bonus than a requirement.

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Looking at our next 6 games and if we are serious for (automatic) promotion I would say that we need 12 points as a minimum;

Derby (A) 1 pt   (0)

Blues (H) 3 pts  (1)

Forest (H) 3 pts  (3)

Boro (A) 1 pt  (1)

West Brom (A) 1 pt (0)

Stoke (H) 3 pts (3)

Basically win the home games, draw the away matches, with the bonus of a 7-game spell unbeaten and we would be set up brilliantly for the visit of Leeds on the 22nd Dec... 

Figures in brackets however, are what I think we will muster up, which will probably keep us outside the play off spots prior the January window.

 

 

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5 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

I am not sure the way to look it is that we are so many points of play offs or automatic. Probably better to think what it will take to make top 6/top 2.

I'd estimate it will take no more than 75 to make play offs. That means we'd need 54 points from 30 games so say 16 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats.  

Being as no one seems capable of pulling away never mind two sides I think around 86 points would get top 2 so we'd need another 65 points so for us 20 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats.

Automatic I'd say is out of reach but play offs is still certainly achievable. 

I’d say you’ll probably turn out to be correct there Mark.

As it happens top of the table Norwich would be on course to reach 86 points at this rate (30 points after 16 games is a 1.875 ppg meaning 86.25 points across the whole season). So the mid 80’s points total is probably about right.

But just for wishful moment of musing, at this stage last season we were 7 points off the automatics. This season we’re 8 points off.

Ok we didn’t reach automatics and we have some tricky upcoming games. But it feels like anyone can beat anyone this season so who knows what we’ll get from Derby, Boro, Leeds etc. If we can reach January and still be around 8 points off automatics, I think it’s achievable.

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