18/19 Race for Promotion

[ender4]

20 minutes ago, A'Villan said:

I don't fully understand the drama surrounding our season to be. I think we're in with a real good shot at promotion. As long as Bruce doesn't lose the players, we're not too poorly positioned.

 

We are already 6 points behind the promotion positions, and as we saw last year to close a 6 point gap takes around 8 wins in a row (as the top 2 also keep winning).

Whats the probability of Bruce winning the next 8 games in row?

[A'Villan]

16 minutes ago, ender4 said:

We are already 6 points behind the promotion positions, and as we saw last year to close a 6 point gap takes around 8 wins in a row (as the top 2 also keep winning).

Whats the probability of Bruce winning the next 8 games in row?

We are 5 points behind automatic promotion with 40 games to play. We are far from out of contention.

Though I take your point, it doesn't look like we are going to go on a run, as things are.

[Keyblade]

6 games in we're already 5 points behind, not very promising to say the least.

[VILLAMARV]

The whole back 5 is a mess.

That doesn't make anyone think promotion.

Last year we had a punchers chance because there was no soft underbelly.

[danceoftheshamen]

We are are a right mess defensively and the keeper has made a shocking start to life at Villa Park. A dodgy keeper panics a defense every time so that is definately not helping. The problem is it looks like it will take years to iron out the keepers shortcomings and that is no use to us whatsoever. He (Nyland) does on occasion pull of some good stops but they are badly let down by way too many errors to build a promotion winning team with.

Sadly we have no alternative aside from Moreira, who is equally in need of a few years experience, or Bunn, who is again not of a sufficient standard for a promotion team in my view. The only one who stood a chance and actually performed really well at the start of the season is Steer.....But we loaned him out, ironically to get experience!

Defensively we are astoundingly short.

One recognised Central defender (Chester) one decent midfielder being shoehorned in to an unnatural position (Jedinak) and a very bizarre number of Right backs who are being ignored in favour of a rooky out of position Central defender who looks exactly like that when he plays!

Jedinak struggled to cope with the number of games last season and you can't see any improvement in that surely this? Despite being moved back that is.

So i see a mixed and matched defensive shambles which is miles off forming a solid base to sustain a promotion push. Compounding the issue even further is a dodgy keeper who is causing that shaky defense to enter panic mode. The result is there for all to see.

They need to somehow find a way to sort it all out as to coach that out will take ages.

[One For The Road]

7 hours ago, danceoftheshamen said:

We are are a right mess defensively and the keeper has made a shocking start to life at Villa Park. A dodgy keeper panics a defense every time so that is definately not helping. The problem is it looks like it will take years to iron out the keepers shortcomings and that is no use to us whatsoever. He (Nyland) does on occasion pull of some good stops but they are badly let down by way too many errors to build a promotion winning team with.

Sadly we have no alternative aside from Moreira, who is equally in need of a few years experience, or Bunn, who is again not of a sufficient standard for a promotion team in my view. The only one who stood a chance and actually performed really well at the start of the season is Steer.....But we loaned him out, ironically to get experience!

Defensively we are astoundingly short.

One recognised Central defender (Chester) one decent midfielder being shoehorned in to an unnatural position (Jedinak) and a very bizarre number of Right backs who are being ignored in favour of a rooky out of position Central defender who looks exactly like that when he plays!

Jedinak struggled to cope with the number of games last season and you can't see any improvement in that surely this? Despite being moved back that is.

So i see a mixed and matched defensive shambles which is miles off forming a solid base to sustain a promotion push. Compounding the issue even further is a dodgy keeper who is causing that shaky defense to enter panic mode. The result is there for all to see.

They need to somehow find a way to sort it all out as to coach that out will take ages.

Totally agree with all of this. How anyone can say we have a good chance of promotion whilst keeping a straight face is beyond me.

Losing Terry and Johnstone and replacing them with Jedinak and Nyland doesn't get you promoted. In fact, it seems to have escaped the attention of some that even WITH Terry and Johnstone we failed to get promoted!

What are the chances of replacing those two with far inferior players and then finishing higher than last season?

[briny_ear]

13 hours ago, ender4 said:

We are already 6 points behind the promotion positions, and as we saw last year to close a 6 point gap takes around 8 wins in a row (as the top 2 also keep winning).

Whats the probability of Bruce winning the next 8 games in row?

 

13 hours ago, A'Villan said:

We are 5 points behind automatic promotion with 40 games to play. We are far from out of contention.

Though I take your point, it doesn't look like we are going to go on a run, as things are.

Well you can’t both be right.

[A'Villan]

57 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

 

Well you can’t both be right.

I think @ender4 meant that 6 points would have us clear on top, if not, then a check of the table would show us 2 points from promotion placing, 5 points from automatic.

[srsmithusa]

15 hours ago, A'Villan said:

I don't fully understand the drama surrounding our season to be. I think we're in with a real good shot at promotion. As long as Bruce doesn't lose the players, we're not too poorly positioned.

Defensive frailties have cost us so far but that's not something I expect to see persist under Bruce unless he loses the players. If he can keep them on side then I imagine we will see an improvement in organisation and the impending inevitability of conceding will be replaced for the most part by the kind of football that Bruce is renowned for. Difficult to beat.

Momentum resides with a side that has an effective game plan and players working toward a common goal. In contrast it's especially difficult to gather when inefficiencies in approach are combined with a deficit on the scoreboard. That is what we saw against Sheffield United. After 25 minutes not only was the momentum firmly in Sheffield's favour the scoreboard was too.

While bitterly disappointed I can't say I expect to see this kind of result and performance continuing as standard for the remainder of the season, even if personnel stays as is. Let's not forget that we have put ourselves in positions to of accrued more points than we have currently, and a better goal difference. In some fixtures despite being exposed and conceding we have also created more than enough chances to put the score and odds in our favour. Unfortunately we didn't and what might've been a match we could write-off as a blip is seemingly now more an indication of what quality teams can do to us. I could well be wrong but I don't think that is going to be the case, unless as I said earlier, Bruce loses the players belief and drive.

Personally I give credit to Sheffield for their efforts in the first 25 minutes, they were full of vigor and used one another well, once the second goal went in they were well and truly in rhythm and had every incentive to keep it going. They played some nice football and they executed well in build up and in finishing. While I want to express my concern for what is happening at Villa I also think that Sheffield could of caused any team in this division problems with the way they started the game, even though it's hard to argue the notion that we were merely exposed as lacking in setup and preparation.

I am not convinced that Bruce is destined for another failure this season. While I don't want him as our manager any longer, I'm guessing that we won't continue getting caught out and punished as badly as we have been in the start to this campaign, and that we will find our feet in being able to pressure our opponents with efficient attempts at goal. The latter is something we've done reasonably well in some fixtures, only to come up short in adding to our tally.

While it might be the case that our performances are symptomatic of a Villa side lacking the quality to contest automatic promotion thus far, I think there are signs of what we are able to do well that shouldn't be ignored or discredited just because we haven't made the kind of start we were all hoping for. Hopefully Bruce gets defensive responsibilities sorted in a way where we aren't so easily picked apart and played around by opponents. That would make a huge difference in how things pan out from here.

The problem is, Bruce’s way of shoring up a fragile defense is to have more players drop deep.  So we play Whelan and Hourihane both in defensive holdings ng roles.  That means we have no midfield so we just pitch it long to a lone forward whose strength is not hold up play so it comes right back at us. So we pull our wings back into more defensive cover which makes the forward more isolated.  Which means live under constant intense pressure and eventually crack.  

But sure, let’s ignore the history that got us here and pretend Bruce will do something entirely new and strengthen a defense without just putting more players into that defense.  

[A'Villan]

3 minutes ago, srsmithusa said:

The problem is, Bruce’s way of shoring up a fragile defense is to have more players drop deep.  So we play Whelan and Hourihane both in defensive holdings ng roles.  That means we have no midfield so we just pitch it long to a lone forward whose strength is not hold up play so it comes right back at us. So we pull our wings back into more defensive cover which makes the forward more isolated.  Which means live under constant intense pressure and eventually crack.  

But sure, let’s ignore the history that got us here and pretend Bruce will do something entirely new and strengthen a defense without just putting more players into that defense.  

I don't think I suggest anywhere that Bruce will anything other than what you suggest, or that Bruce is in anyway inspired or inspiring in his approach.

Or do I ignore the history of what's come before, if anything I suggest that the cause of an improved defensive solidarity will be due to Bruce reverting to type.

I am aware that we commit more players to defense and give up territory to the opposition in the process, and that our wingers dropping deep means they have to start any runs or dribbles earlier than what is ideal. Build up play is compromised by the roles assigned in midfield as you mention.

Let's not ignore the times we are able to mount a proper attack. They have come far more frequently than the suggestion that we revert to long balls to a target man. Every team employs this move at some point in every fixture anyway, frustratingly we do it more than what is effective but I'm not expecting any drastic improvements in approach from Bruce in that regard.

We are a 37 year old short of last seasons defense, and we have what should be an improved midfield and attack. McGinn has already created a much needed link between defense and our forward players. I rate Kodjia above Grabban and on the topic of long passes, I don't see him as being unable or ineffective when it comes to receiving long passes, not like people make out. Just because it's not his preferred role or strongest quality doesn't mean he doesn't win duels and possession for us, he does.

None of this is meant to appease anyones concerns over Bruce as a manager. I'm just suggesting that we are in with a shot at promotion.

[srsmithusa]

10 hours ago, A'Villan said:

I don't think I suggest anywhere that Bruce will anything other than what you suggest, or that Bruce is in anyway inspired or inspiring in his approach.

Or do I ignore the history of what's come before, if anything I suggest that the cause of an improved defensive solidarity will be due to Bruce reverting to type.

I am aware that we commit more players to defense and give up territory to the opposition in the process, and that our wingers dropping deep means they have to start any runs or dribbles earlier than what is ideal. Build up play is compromised by the roles assigned in midfield as you mention.

Let's not ignore the times we are able to mount a proper attack. They have come far more frequently than the suggestion that we revert to long balls to a target man. Every team employs this move at some point in every fixture anyway, frustratingly we do it more than what is effective but I'm not expecting any drastic improvements in approach from Bruce in that regard.

We are a 37 year old short of last seasons defense, and we have what should be an improved midfield and attack. McGinn has already created a much needed link between defense and our forward players. I rate Kodjia above Grabban and on the topic of long passes, I don't see him as being unable or ineffective when it comes to receiving long passes, not like people make out. Just because it's not his preferred role or strongest quality doesn't mean he doesn't win duels and possession for us, he does.

None of this is meant to appease anyones concerns over Bruce as a manager. I'm just suggesting that we are in with a shot at promotion.

Agree with most of your observations. Don’t think we have anything resembling a realistic shot with this manager and this roster, even if a 37 year old is added.  

[ender4]

15 hours ago, A'Villan said:

I think @ender4 meant that 6 points would have us clear on top, if not, then a check of the table would show us 2 points from promotion placing, 5 points from automatic.

I meant we need 6 points to be second.  This is because we have an inferior goal difference.

You just took the difference between second and our current points total which is 5 points. But adding 5 points to our current points total would place us in third, not second. 

Doesn't really matter anyway - either way we need a good 7 wins in a row to get back on track. Which isn't going to happen.  

 

[A'Villan]

9 minutes ago, ender4 said:

I meant we need 6 points to be second.  This is because we have an inferior goal difference.

You just took the difference between second and our current points total which is 5 points. But adding 5 points to our current points total would place us in third, not second. 

Doesn't really matter anyway - either way we need a good 7 wins in a row to get back on track. Which isn't going to happen.  

 

Check the table. Six points would have us in first. You think we are incapable of closing a six point gap with forty games to go?

You'd probably be right if you answered yes, but I'm going to reserve judgement yet again because I can't see why we shouldn't be an improved outfit from last season.

[ender4]

1 minute ago, A'Villan said:

Check the table. Six points would have us in first. You think we are incapable of closing a six point gap with forty games to go?

You'd probably be right if you answered yes, but I'm going to reserve judgement yet again because I can't see why we shouldn't be an improved outfit from last season.

I've checked the table again and i'm definitely correct. 

adding 5 points takes us to 3rd. 

adding 6 points takes us into the top two (in first).

 

and yes, last season we were incapable of closing a 6 point gap over 40 games! 

 

[A'Villan]

1 minute ago, ender4 said:

I've checked the table again and i'm definitely correct. 

adding 5 points takes us to 3rd. 

adding 6 points takes us into the top two (in first).

 

and yes, last season we were incapable of closing a 6 point gap over 40 games! 

 

If that was what was in you thoughts all along I stand corrected. I wasn't paying as much attention to detail in your post as I could've.

Fair enough. I don't blame you at all. I guess I'm digging for any hope or optimism I can muster.

[dn1982]

The playoffs distort the league. We should be aiming for top 2 and have the playoffs as a fall back. Last year it wasn’t all about finishing top 6 after our bad start and it’s looking to that way already. That’s nothing good enough. This squad will challenge for the playoffs regardless of who I supported  In charge. That’s not good enough. We need to win our next 3 to get back to top 2 form of 2 pts a game. That’s easily achievable with who we have. Will-we do it is another thing. 

[abdulaziz1]

For me its about our momentum and form. If confidence is back we might have a good chance. Last season we were at some point 15 points below the promtion places (or 13). Yet we made it to second and then blowed it.

As long as we keep in touch while we get playing better we could make it.

If we played the whole season like we’ve done in our second part of the season we would have gone up. Ofcourse there are always ups and downs even when we are on form (QPR, Bolton, Hull and Norwich) for example.

But tbh what harmed us alot was the Fulham game, if we had beaten them their confidence would have been low and we would be second for two weeks which would make us believe in ourselves.

Sheff U began with two losses but with their way of playing and turning there results to wins gave them a huge boost. Same with Derby.

We have the better players but we lack a lot in defence and coaching. We only want Bruce to do what he done last season (we were winning with Jedi in the side by the way). 

 

[alreadyexists]

It can’t be over already can it? I’m feeling pretty deflated over the past couple of weeks, it certainly feels a bit rubbish at the moment. Maybe a couple of wins on the trot will mke me feel better.

[allani]

On 12/09/2018 at 12:13, A'Villan said:

We are 5 points behind automatic promotion with 40 games to play. We are far from out of contention.

Though I take your point, it doesn't look like we are going to go on a run, as things are.

We are only 5 points off relegation too.  So we are just as far from out of contention for that.  I'm not suggesting that Bruce will get us relegated.  But as the last 26 matches have shown - our form is 11th and that is pretty much where Bruce will get us in my opinion.  Which I guess must be "thereabouts" as it sure as hell isn't "there" and Bruce keeps telling us that we will be "there or thereabouts".  Every press conference.  So it must be true.

[allani]

We are 2 points worse off than last season using the same fixtures (i.e. results against the teams in the same league position as those we have played this season).  So if we carry on at the same rate we will be around 15 points worse off than last season.  Which also points to us finishing outside the play-offs.