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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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6 minutes ago, TRO said:

In the cold light of day HOW you get them is cosmetic.

The team that goes up wins the most points and the reward for points is commonly known....who you get them off is irrelevant.

hypothetically you could beat all the lower 15 team in the division home and away and secure 90 points, which would pretty much set you on the way for Auto promotion...if only life was so simple.....so, dropping points against the top teams is no really big deal....but you have to win the others, and we don't.

There’s no way I can reply to this without mentioning a certain former manager’s name and his record against the current bottom fifteen clubs at the start of the season...

So new year’s resolutions and all that, I won’t :)

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4 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said:

There’s no way I can reply to this without mentioning a certain former manager’s name and his record against the current bottom fifteen clubs at the start of the season...

So new year’s resolutions and all that, I won’t :)

personally, despite the change in style and I have enjoyed that bit....I still see traits or remnants of Steve Bruce's Team.

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10 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It’s actually 5 wins. Yes not good enough for promotion but hardly a crisis just yet! 

You give up hope for the season if you want. I’ll continue to believe thanks. 

Crisis.....who mentioned Crisis?

I don't think any of us would give up hope....else we wouldn't be ST holders....but realistic chance, based on what I have been seeing during  the last 7 games, i think is remote.

However, that can change depending of the capability of the ones we bring in.

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7 hours ago, TRO said:

personally, despite the change in style and I have enjoyed that bit....I still see traits or remnants of Steve Bruce's Team.

Seeing as it’s the same roster, that shouldn’t be a shock.  Thank goodness they are at least doing observably better.  

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8 minutes ago, srsmithusa said:

Seeing as it’s the same roster, that shouldn’t be a shock.  Thank goodness they are at least doing observably better.  

Win ratio's with us.

  • Steve Bruce - 45%
  • Dean Smith - 40%

Not sure that is right...depending on what you mean.

we will see when Dean gets his own team/roster.

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I missed the 25 game mark, so here's the 26 game mark...

image.png.6796a813142be68691d47b26b8bee8fe.png

2016/17 - 35 points | 2017/18 - 44 points | 2018/19 - 38 points

After 31 games - 2016/17 - 36 points | 2017/18 - 59 points | 2018/19 - ?

image.png.c8c049068d14ccd81319c709874d62c0.png

2016/17 - 13th | 2017/18 - 5th | 2018/19 - 10th

After 31 games - 2016/17 - 16th | 2017/18 - 2nd (peak) | 2018/19 - ?

Edited by Hornso
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9 hours ago, TRO said:

Win ratio's with us.

  • Steve Bruce - 45%
  • Dean Smith - 40%

Not sure that is right...depending on what you mean.

we will see when Dean gets his own team/roster.

I would imagine @srsmithusa meant this season with the same roster of players (no Terry, Johnstone etc).

The difference in win ratios is about 15% I expect you know in whose favour...

Edit - also 6 out 14 is closer to 43%.

Edited by Shropshire Lad
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10 hours ago, Farlz said:

Our next 4 games are vital, we have to win at least 3 of them. Wigan, Ipswich and Reading are truly awful.

Agree - we have to beat wigan on saturday - and I am pretty confident we will. 

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11 hours ago, Farlz said:

Our next 4 games are vital, we have to win at least 3 of them. Wigan, Ipswich and Reading are truly awful.

Agree. Fail to do that and then I’ll join those that think we won’t get playoffs this season. 

It will be pretty crap for the season to be practically over so early. 

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If the key measure of success now is whether Smith is doing better than Bruce, this all looks a bit inward and desperate. 

How's he doing vs Bielsa, Farke, Wilder, Moore, Pulis and Lampard? 

These are the teams we need to be competing with now.

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21 hours ago, TRO said:

personally, despite the change in style and I have enjoyed that bit....I still see traits or remnants of Steve Bruce's Team.

The last few performances have been classic Bruce. Shows the issues with our squad. 

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13 hours ago, TRO said:

Win ratio's with us.

  • Steve Bruce - 45%
  • Dean Smith - 40%

Not sure that is right...depending on what you mean.

we will see when Dean gets his own team/roster.

Now do the same calculation for this season only.....

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6 hours ago, Shropshire Lad said:

I would imagine @srsmithusa meant this season with the same roster of players (no Terry, Johnstone etc).

The difference in win ratios is about 15% I expect you know in whose favour...

Edit - also 6 out 14 is closer to 43%.

i just went across the board, which takes in SB's first season.....but Dean has only been with us 5 minutes.....so it is fair to say the timescales have a big bearing.

I wasn't trying to present a case, other than some might think, so far, its not better.....depending how you look at it....and whether who we have played is deemed as mitigation.

I am not making any point, just presenting the facts.

those are the across the board percentages of each manager at Aston Villa.

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2 hours ago, briny_ear said:

If the key measure of success now is whether Smith is doing better than Bruce, this all looks a bit inward and desperate. 

How's he doing vs Bielsa, Farke, Wilder, Moore, Pulis and Lampard? 

These are the teams we need to be competing with now.

I’m aware you only asked that question to make a point. But out of those, he’d be sixth, below Lampard on 46% and just ahead of Pulis who’s on just a touch over 42%. Bielsa is top with 57%.

So considering all those have had a full pre season and a summer transfer window and taking into account the mess he inherited, the opposition he has faced, having a win percentage comparable to a couple of the top six is fairly decent going in my book.

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