The Predictions Thread

[chrisp65]

If there's no driver, why would the car bother going anywhere?

 

Anyway, my best prediction was whilst watching Carmarthen Town. They had one player that had a slightly weird running style. So obviously every time he set off I shouted 'run forest, run'.

I turned to my chums and declared 'actually, he's a different class, he won't be in this league very long'.

It was Mark Delaney.

New prediction: In the next 10 years China is going to invade and occupy somewhere, possibly even North Korea with consent in advance from the bald orange dickhead himself, and the world economy will go meltdownaggedon.

[TheAuthority]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

The 'will destroy millions of jobs' part of the url is unfortunate given your opening.

I think the title is to garner clicks. The article goes on to talk about jobs being created in other sectors.

Quote

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income—and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.

https://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/

[snowychap]

Just now, TheAuthority said:

I think the title is to garner clicks. The article goes on to talk about jobs being created in other sectors.

https://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/

To be fair, I was just joshing.

A claim of the ushering in of 'an era of unpreceedented ... job creation' doesn't really equate to 'talking about jobs being created in other sectors', though.

 

[TheAuthority]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

To be fair, I was just joshing.

A claim of the ushering in of 'an era of unpreceedented ... job creation' doesn't really equate to 'talking about jobs being created in other sectors', though.

 

Fair enough: He qualifies it by saying

Quote

 and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.

which could be argued to be a cop out.

I'm just sick of people that drive like clearings in the woods. My cheaper solution - a big spike sticking out of the steering wheel towards the chest of the driver. Maybe that would make people drive with a bit more carefully.

Which after googling for that image I have found there is a name for - the Tullock Spike.

[snowychap]

4 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

which could be argued to be a cop out.

I think that's a ginormous cop out not a qualification.

Of real relevance to this thread, I think, is how skeptical we ought to be of anyone who supports existing technological change (as opposed to progress) with comments about a future 'that we cannot yet imagine'.

 

Edited February 28, 2018 by snowychap

[TheAuthority]

3 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Of real relevance to this thread, I think, is how skeptical we ought to be of anyone who supports existing technological change (as opposed to progress) with comments about a future 'that we cannot yet imagine'.

 

It's a light article written by a young enthusiastic tech blogger. "A future that we cannot imagine" is vapid bloggy speak.

I'm not sure I fully understand the difference you are drawing between technological "change" as opposed to progress. I see automated vehicles as a marriage of existing technologies - electric car, Uber style GPS planning software, cameras and the onboard AI of the vehicle. That to me is progress. Is it the AI that you see as the change? 

[snowychap]

3 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

I'm not sure I fully understand the difference you are drawing between technological "change" as opposed to progress. I see automated vehicles as a marriage of existing technologies - electric car, Uber style GPS planning software, cameras and the onboard AI of the vehicle. That to me is progress. Is it the AI that you see as the change?

Progress is normally viewed as unquestionably good (moving forward & so on), change is the description of moving from one state to another without any judgement as to whether that change is good or bad.

[TheAuthority]

2 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Progress is normally viewed as unquestionably good (moving forward & so on), change is the description of moving from one state to another without any judgement as to whether that change is good or bad.

Gotcha - So codifying a development/transformation such as automated cars as "progress" is something you can only do in hindsight. If you qualify it now as anything other than change your argument better be better than a 'future we cannot imagine. (I'm aware I'm explaining this to myself.)

[snowychap]

1 minute ago, TheAuthority said:

Gotcha - So codifying a development/transformation such as automated cars as "progress" is something you can only do in hindsight. If you qualify it now as anything other than change your argument better be better than a 'future we cannot imagine. (I'm aware I'm explaining this to myself.)

No, it's not a hindsight/qualification issue.

It's to do with what progress means. I think there's a moral/value part to the idea of progress that needs to be taken in to consideration.

Simply moving forward shouldn't necessarily be viewed as progress if we end up in a worse state than where we were before.

Interesting direction for the discussion to go.

[TheAuthority]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

No, it's not a hindsight/qualification issue.

It's to do with what progress means. I think there's a moral/value part to the idea of progress that needs to be taken in to consideration.

Simply moving forward shouldn't necessarily be viewed as progress if we end up in a worse state than where we were before.

Interesting direction for the discussion to go.

I would agree, of course, to consider the morals and values being part of the conversation, but surely you can only fully judge if something was progressive in a positive way with hindsight?

[snowychap]

3 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

I would agree, of course, to consider the morals and values being part of the conversation, but surely you can only fully judge if something was progressive in a positive way with hindsight?

Of course, you can only fully judge when looking back but, unfortunately, you can never choose other than in advance.

[TheAuthority]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

Of course, you can only fully judge when looking back but, unfortunately, you can never choose other than in advance.

So my choice is taking all of the cockwomble drivers off the road 

[Seat68]

@chrisp65 a couple of years back you mentioned a young black kid, probably playing for Barry but may have been a local side, can you recall? Wondering if anything became of him.

[HanoiVillan]

9 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

So my choice is taking all of the cockwomble drivers off the road 

Studies suggest that driving is subject to the '80/20 rule', ie. that 20% of drivers cause 80% of the accidents. If we split the remaining 80% again, we can see that probably around a third of drivers on the road cause 96% of the accidents. Since a driver's prior driving discipline record is the best predictor of future crashes, there is a decent case for saying that drivers who get caught speeding or driving through red lights shouldn't be allowed to drive their own cars at any point in the future. It may well be that the other two-thirds of drivers are at least as good as a driverless car (at least compared to current technology).

(I can't lay claim to this being an original idea - it's shamelessly stolen from Australian economist John Quiggin here)

[tonyh29]

15 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

@chrisp65 a couple of years back you mentioned a young black kid, probably playing for Barry but may have been a local side, can you recall? Wondering if anything became of him.

He met David Cameron in Plymouth and turned out to be 40

[Paddywhack]

I remember as a kid discussing with a couple of mates how great it would be if you could pause, fast forward and rewind TV, that way we wouldn't have to wait until 9pm for the new episode of Red Dwarf. It was a complete fantasy though and I didn't believe for a second that it would be partly true. I thought it would be chaos, I thought it'd mean we'd all be watching 'live' TV weeks apart, everybody in a different timezone.

I also remember playing Fifa 97 on the SNES and thinking how amazing it would be if I could play someone on the other side of the world (I told my dad that's what I was doing). Again, it was complete fantasy, something I didn't think would be happening in my life time. I don't know why I thought that, the internet was around. 2 console generations later, Fifa 2005 was the first online I think?

Edited March 1, 2018 by Paddywhack

[chrisp65]

53 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

@chrisp65 a couple of years back you mentioned a young black kid, probably playing for Barry but may have been a local side, can you recall? Wondering if anything became of him.

There have been a couple that have come through the system. Christian Doidge was the obvious one most recently, he’s at Forest Green now, which is a little lower than I’d expected. We had TJ who became a current Pakistan international whilst with us, but last season he jacked it in. Although he doesn't strictly qualify as an answer on account of his being white.
There have been a couple of black kids we had on the books briefly, but unfortunately, both of them were here because they had personal demons they needed to iron out for their careers to take off. It never happened. Long story short, drop your bad mates and stop dealing and there’s a real football career ahead of you. But sadly they couldn’t do it, even with a change of town to somewhere a bit more backwater.

 

[Seat68]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

There have been a couple that have come through the system. Christian Doidge was the obvious one most recently, he’s at Forest Green now, which is a little lower than I’d expected. We had TJ who became a current Pakistan international whilst with us, but last season he jacked it in. Although he doesn't strictly qualify as an answer on account of his being white.
There have been a couple of black kids we had on the books briefly, but unfortunately, both of them were here because they had personal demons they needed to iron out for their careers to take off. It never happened. Long story short, drop your bad mates and stop dealing and there’s a real football career ahead of you. But sadly they couldn’t do it, even with a change of town to somewhere a bit more backwater.

 

Elvis Manayese, I remembered the elvis bit.

[Xann]

1 hour ago, Paddywhack said:

I also remember playing Fifa 97 on the SNES and thinking how amazing it would be...

Recalling the massive leaps through the 80s. Spectrum/64 - ST/Amiga - Then the Megadrive arrrived. The colours and the spinning bonus screen on Sonic were just crazy. In parallel came films like the 'The Last Starfighter' with its ground breaking CGI made on state of the art machines. Just a decade later came 'Babylon 5',  which was initially made on a big Amiga - That was a big Wow moment, along with domestic machines catching up with, then surpassing their amusement arcade counterparts.

I remember thinking then I'd be in my 40s before we got here...

... I wanted it then though

Edited March 1, 2018 by Xann

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, Seat68 said:

Elvis Manayese, I remembered the elvis bit.

Bloody hell I'd forgotten all about Elvis! He wasn't one of the guys with problems I was referring to, not sure what happened with Elvis. That's a bit of research for a snowy afternoon.**

We had a host of people through the system when Fashanu was involved too, most notably beast mode Akinfenwa.

Less impressive, we were one of Leon Jeanne's twenty clubs before he went to prison. As the judge said:

Quote

In May 2015 Jeanne was sentenced to 30 months in prison for conspiring to supply cocaine, heroin and cannabis.^[12] He was part of a drug gang operating in Gloucester and surrounding cities and areas selling crack cocaine and heroin. He was responsible for the Cardiff side of the gangs business operation. Judge Ford told him: "You are a great disappointment to many people. You wasted your talent and turned from an honest, athletic man to a common criminal. You've been ruined by drugs. References show you have the capacity for reform."

 

 

** Elvis update: just did a quick ask, apparently he 'didn't fit in' and was returned to sender. 

*** on a completely and utterly unrelated note: if you're being given one last chance, you shouldn't ask not to be photographed during games as you're currently officially on the sick.

Edited March 1, 2018 by chrisp65