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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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4 minutes ago, bickster said:

If Ukraine survives it has won.

 It's country is devastated, 100,000's dead, that's not winning, IMHO.

 It will have defeated an enemy that's led by a deluded madman who's willing to sacrifice his own people with little regard. No winners at all, apart from arms dealers and energy companies outside of Russia. 

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8 minutes ago, tinker said:

 It's country is devastated, 100,000's dead, that's not winning, IMHO.

 It will have defeated an enemy that's led by a deluded madman who's willing to sacrifice his own people with little regard. No winners at all, apart from arms dealers and energy companies outside of Russia. 

The world is pretty committed to help rebuild Ukraine. The long term outcome could be bright for them. The loss of a generation of men will be a huge blow but probably nothing compared to eg The UK in World War 1.

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2 hours ago, tinker said:

 It's country is devastated, 100,000's dead, that's not winning, IMHO.

 It will have defeated an enemy that's led by a deluded madman who's willing to sacrifice his own people with little regard. No winners at all, apart from arms dealers and energy companies outside of Russia. 

It's winning because it will exist. Putin wanted to subsume the whole country and wipe out its culture

Ukrainians will tell you that not losing that is a victory, yes theres a cost of human lives but this isn't a fight they started

And as the builder of sheds says, they will get a hell of a lot of support from the rest of the world to rebuild when this is over.

 

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16 minutes ago, bickster said:

It's winning because it will exist. Putin wanted to subsume the whole country and wipe out its culture

Ukrainians will tell you that not losing that is a victory, yes theres a cost of human lives but this isn't a fight they started

And as the builder of sheds says, they will get a hell of a lot of support from the rest of the world to rebuild when this is over.

 

They will certainly but in situations like this, other countries have self interest as well. The US might loan them 100 billion on very reasonable long term loans, the real price though is giving them access to the Ukraine economy.

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6 hours ago, bickster said:

If Ukraine survives it has won.

Well, yes and no.

Really, no one can win - as in come out of this better than they started, or stronger. I mean, Ukraine is being turned into a absolutely decimated country - towns, Cities and villages utterly smashed into the ground. Tens and tens of thousands of people killed, injured, traumatised. Mines and UXO everywhere, economy trashed, environment trashed...

Recovery from that is going to take decades - that's not a "win" in my book, at best it's just survival.

And Russia - they can't win. All those dead and wounded conscripts and regular troops. Military reputation gone. Exports and global status massively diminished. Thousands of their young gone into exile to avoid conscription. Putin's reputation is much worse domestically than it was, his position weaker. Shortages of goods and supplies due to sanctions. Their future reliance on Oil and gas for income is likely to be more rapidly phased out due to many of their customers (EU etc) now transitioning much more rapidly away from fossil fuels. Their allies are largely less supportive than they were.

No one can win. Only lose. It's not a zero sum calculation.

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I think there are 2 ways to look at things and ultimately both are correct. 

The no win situation lies in the present imo. Without doubt, the current loss of life is never positive or a win, families will forever be lost in time just as through previous wars. The destruction to property and materials in the end becomes less of a concern when compared to the loss of life. However, who's to say that had Ukraine capitulated early in this conflict that the numbers of Ukrainians killed would not be higher than present? In this instance or conflict I would guess that had Ukraine rolled over the carnage would have been just as bad. Maybe not materialistically but with the suffering of a nation and it's souls.

Russian's would have been systematically going from door to door across the whole nation with maybe astronomical numbers of citizens disappearing, far higher than 100k. With Russia's history I would bet that would certainly be the case although admittedly hypothetical. On that basis though, or the possibility, out of a population of what was 44m, what would be an acceptable loss to retain freedom from a regime that would systematically wipe out all that oppose it?! My guess is the number would be far far higher than 100k. If you look at things like that then who's to say that ultimately retaining a certain level of freedom in this tyrant made f***** up world isn't a win. 

 

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You will be amazed how quickly Ukraine will recover.   There are plenty of precedents. 

Japan was nuked twice and lost 3,000,000 people in WW2. 

Germany lost 5,000,000 and half its country to the USSR in WW2.  

The  Balkan Countries lost 150,000 in the Yugoslavia civil wars.  

In the long term, Ukraine could give up all the land they have presently lost and still be in a better position than Russia in 10 years.  Especially if the West continues with sanctions. 

Putin publicly states that Russia doesn’t need the West and can be better off trading with the rest of the world.  Even he knows that's not true.

 

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37 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think there are 2 ways to look at things and ultimately both are correct. 

The no win situation lies in the present imo. Without doubt, the current loss of life is never positive or a win, families will forever be lost in time just as through previous wars. The destruction to property and materials in the end becomes less of a concern when compared to the loss of life. However, who's to say that had Ukraine capitulated early in this conflict that the numbers of Ukrainians killed would not be higher than present? In this instance or conflict I would guess that had Ukraine rolled over the carnage would have been just as bad. Maybe not materialistically but with the suffering of a nation and it's souls.

Russian's would have been systematically going from door to door across the whole nation with maybe astronomical numbers of citizens disappearing, far higher than 100k. With Russia's history I would bet that would certainly be the case although admittedly hypothetical. On that basis though, or the possibility, out of a population of what was 44m, what would be an acceptable loss to retain freedom from a regime that would systematically wipe out all that oppose it?! My guess is the number would be far far higher than 100k. If you look at things like that then who's to say that ultimately retaining a certain level of freedom in this tyrant made f***** up world isn't a win. 

 

Well I’m not so sure about that. Presumably had Ukrainians reacted to the arrival of Russian troops the way Russia thought they would there wouldn’t have been any need to kill people (though Zelenskyy and co might have been in some difficulty 😬)

If you are one of the thousands of Ukrainians killed or seriously injured in this war, or one of their immediate family members, then ‘welcoming’ the Russians would obviously have lead to a preferable outcome for you. 

 

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I follow TASS on Twitter.  There's been quite a few articles recently that suggest all is not well with Putin.  

He traditionally holds a massive press conference in December.  That's been postponed until January.  

The Kremlin have announced that a number of opening ceremonies he was due to attend will now be conducted by video link.  

Either his health is failing or he fears someone is trying to bump him off. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Well I’m not so sure about that. Presumably had Ukrainians reacted to the arrival of Russian troops the way Russia thought they would there wouldn’t have been any need to kill people (though Zelenskyy and co might have been in some difficulty 😬)

If you are one of the thousands of Ukrainians killed or seriously injured in this war, or one of their immediate family members, then ‘welcoming’ the Russians would obviously have lead to a preferable outcome for you. 

If this was the case the the world would be a basket case of a place ruled by bullying warlords.

I'm sure many is not most of those families will feel that the sacrifice of their immediate family member, whilst tragic, is a price to be paid for their freedom.

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4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

if this was the case the the world would be a basket case of a place ruled by bullying warlords.

I'm sure many is not most of those families will feel that the sacrifice of their immediate family member, whilst tragic, is a price to be paid for their freedom.

How many of your family members would you be willing to sacrifice for not having to have a Russian passport?

The idea posted earlier that Ukrainians choosing to take up arms and fight a Russian takeover has somehow save more Ukrainian lives than it has cost is pretty preposterous. 

Following that, for the people killed it was obviously the poorer of the two possible outcomes. 

For the people who survive this war we are left with a question of whether it was worth it and that is going to vary pretty dramatically from person to person depending on how they have been affected.

I would not begrudge or call a Ukrainian a coward if they would have preferred the path of least resistance. It is an enormous sacrifice to take the stance they have, and for some it will be too big of a sacrifice. I’m not sure what I would do in the same scenario myself. 

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49 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think there are 2 ways to look at things and ultimately both are correct. 

The no win situation lies in the present imo. Without doubt, the current loss of life is never positive or a win, families will forever be lost in time just as through previous wars. The destruction to property and materials in the end becomes less of a concern when compared to the loss of life. However, who's to say that had Ukraine capitulated early in this conflict that the numbers of Ukrainians killed would not be higher than present? In this instance or conflict I would guess that had Ukraine rolled over the carnage would have been just as bad. Maybe not materialistically but with the suffering of a nation and it's souls.

Russian's would have been systematically going from door to door across the whole nation with maybe astronomical numbers of citizens disappearing, far higher than 100k. With Russia's history I would bet that would certainly be the case although admittedly hypothetical. On that basis though, or the possibility, out of a population of what was 44m, what would be an acceptable loss to retain freedom from a regime that would systematically wipe out all that oppose it?! My guess is the number would be far far higher than 100k. If you look at things like that then who's to say that ultimately retaining a certain level of freedom in this tyrant made f***** up world isn't a win. 

 

The Ukraine was obviously right in defending itself and had no choice than to go to war defending itself despite the devastation it would cause. 

Putin is the real issue and the one that's caused all this death and destruction that's called a war. It's one man's decision. That's the problem with leaders that become so powerful they can't be overthrown.

Maybe he is ill and this war is his attempt to leave a legacy of his reign over Russia. 

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11 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Well I’m not so sure about that. Presumably had Ukrainians reacted to the arrival of Russian troops the way Russia thought they would there wouldn’t have been any need to kill people (though Zelenskyy and co might have been in some difficulty 😬)

If you are one of the thousands of Ukrainians killed or seriously injured in this war, or one of their immediate family members, then ‘welcoming’ the Russians would obviously have lead to a preferable outcome for you. 

 

I think your giving the Russians too much credit in thinking they'd have just rolled in an only killed Zelenskky and his immediate circle. Ukrainians went through enough trying to rid themselves of Russian influence in the first place. I think there would've been a mass purge whichever way this had gone.  

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13 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

How many of your family members would you be willing to sacrifice for not having to have a Russian passport?

The idea posted earlier that Ukrainians choosing to take up arms and fight a Russian takeover has somehow save more Ukrainian lives than it has cost is pretty preposterous. 

Following that, for the people killed it was obviously the poorer of the two possible outcomes. 

For the people who survive this war we are left with a question of whether it was worth it and that is going to vary pretty dramatically from person to person depending on how they have been affected.

I would not begrudge or call a Ukrainian a coward if they would have preferred the path of least resistance. It is an enormous sacrifice to take the stance they have, and for some it will be too big of a sacrifice. I’m not sure what I would do in the same scenario myself. 

History tells us that countries who roll over and let in conquering hordes, it really doesn't end well for their people.

ESPECIALLY where the conqueror is a brutal regime like Putins Russia.  I think you are badly underestimating how many people can "disappear" even if they are one of their own citizens.   People from another country would be treated even worse.   

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20 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I follow TASS on Twitter.  There's been quite a few articles recently that suggest all is not well with Putin.  

He traditionally holds a massive press conference in December.  That's been postponed until January.  

The Kremlin have announced that a number of opening ceremonies he was due to attend will now be conducted by video link.  

Either his health is failing or he fears someone is trying to bump him off. 

 

 

If Putin was coming to my town i’d genuinely give a lot of thought of ways to kill him. Even if it meant my own death i’d take one for the team if it saved hundreds of thousands of others (and potentially saved my children from war).

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6 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think your giving the Russians too much credit in thinking they'd have just rolled in an only killed Zelenskky and his immediate circle. Ukrainians went through enough trying to rid themselves of Russian influence in the first place. I think there would've been a mass purge whichever way this had gone.  

 

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

History tells us that countries who roll over and let in conquering hordes, it really doesn't end well for their people.

ESPECIALLY where the conqueror is a brutal regime like Putins Russia.  I think you are badly underestimating how many people can "disappear" even if they are one of their own citizens.   People from another country would be treated even worse.   

Well it certainly makes all their deaths much easier to think about if you take up a belief that they would have died either way, so they might as well fight. 

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Most of the HIMARs salvos these days are going straight to Chechen and Wagner bases. Reportely Ukraine hit 3 Wagner headquarters last night around Svatove, Popasna and around that stupid line of concrete bollards they're putting up south of Lysyshansk. The videos coming out show massive casualties, which could only be good.

How long until that rabid dog Kadyrov turns tail due to internal pressure? If he loses enough men he opens himself up to the opposition in Chechnya and abroad who are more than ready to take his backward behind by force. There are currently more than 7 BTG's of Chechnyans fighting for Ukraine. What happens when they are allowed to go free their nation when this is over?

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