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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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[I really hope it's a promotion 'charge'!]

I'm not too bothered by those coming down.  Sunderland will be the same as us this season - mid-table at best.  Boro might be top 6 challenging, but will need a complete re-build so could also implode.  Hull/Palace/Swansea/Leicester - would be likely to lose key players if they drop.  Probably be challengers but can't see any of them bossing the league.

That leaves 8 current teams above us (ex the 3 promoted).  I think we are now already better than most of them and as we have the capacity to strengthen and improve more over the summer I expect to be challenging for top 2 throughout.

Sort out the away form (ideally with a few early soft fixtures) and break the TV hoodoo and it's on.

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we need strength in depth to challenge next season. imagine losing Kodjia for any amount of time? We can't rely on Gabby or RHM. Will McCormack return? Will Hogan avoid injury? I would definitely like to see us go after another forward, if only on loan until January or something.

We also need strength in the centre of defence as well as two keepers. I think we can bolster the midfield simply by getting Veretout and Sanchez back!

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3 minutes ago, Kingman said:

If we don't get out the division next season we could end up in a rut.

Agreed, parachute payments will be even less next year. We wont be in a position to buy the leagues best players anymore - and the season after we will have to start selling prized assets to the newly relegated teams with the extra money just to keep afloat.

Also, a few years back we used to win the reserves league regularly but now we are struggling and not bringing through much young talent, we may need to start relying on kids if we don't go up in the next 2 seasons. I really hope the club are doing something to improve the youth set up.

Edited by Junxs
added section about youth players
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19 minutes ago, hippo said:

Premature - anything could happen between now and August.

(we might not even get Johnstone on a permanent deal !!.... for example)

 

This is why I don't play the lottery. How can they possibly expect me to predict the exact 6 numbers that pop out?

I usually wait to see what the first 5 are and then give a quick prediction on the bonus ball. It's too late to buy a ticket then obviously, but I've been right a fair few times in the past.

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47 minutes ago, ViewFromT2 said:

I respect your opinion.

By saying they are premier league class are you suggesting both teams will stay up next year with the squads they have?

I don't think the championship is all that great to be honest. The two teams running away with it are really no that good, and certainly will struggle in the prem unless they strengthen considerably. ...as we proved down at Brighton by outplaying them for large parts. Also, Sheffield Wednesday have been up in the van all season....and I thought they were awful on Saturday!

There is a huge gulf opening between the championship and the Premier League....and despite what you say about the likes of sunderland, I expect them to be competitive in the championship if Moyes remains in charge. Just my opinion

...time will tell!

I dunno mate I think Brighton could quite easily beat Sunderland a day hull same with Newcastle 

I don't think the gulf is as huge as some say. From what I have seen you need a strong work ethic, stability and a strong manager to be a team in premier league . 

I think the gap is huge from top 6 upwards though

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1 minute ago, Demitri_C said:

I dunno mate I think Brighton could quite easily beat Sunderland a day hull same with Newcastle 

I don't think the gulf is as huge as some say. From what I have seen you need a strong work ethic, stability and a strong manager to be a team in premier league . 

I think the gap is huge from top 6 upwards though

Physically there isn't a huge difference, if any at all. The Championship is a professional league and at the top end, with the resources at a club like Newcastle or Aston Villa it is every bit as pro as the PL. The difference is in the decision making. It appears faster because even at a plum average mid table team like Southampton, they cycle through the phases quicker. 

Confidence is a big factor at any level of football, but in the PL it is maybe the most important. The confidence to pick the ball up and back yourself to make the right decision in an instant. This is where the managers earn their crust. As much as I dislike him Eddie Howe for example backs his players to play a certain way, he breaths that faith into them and so they do OK with subjectively weaker players ability wise. 

Newcastle will do fine, their manager is top class and he will have them up for it. Brighton I'm not so sure about. In truth, it's really hard to predict until they are playing regularly against that level of opposition. It's one thing Leeds going to Liverpool in the cup with nothing to lose and putting up a good fight, it's another when you're facing that relentless onslaught every week. 

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1 hour ago, ViewFromT2 said:

I respect your opinion.

By saying they are premier league class are you suggesting both teams will stay up next year with the squads they have?

I don't think the championship is all that great to be honest. The two teams running away with it are really no that good, and certainly will struggle in the prem unless they strengthen considerably. ...as we proved down at Brighton by outplaying them for large parts. Also, Sheffield Wednesday have been up in the van all season....and I thought they were awful on Saturday!

There is a huge gulf opening between the championship and the Premier League....and despite what you say about the likes of sunderland, I expect them to be competitive in the championship if Moyes remains in charge. Just my opinion

...time will tell!

Cannot see Brighton struggling in the slightest, I wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the top 12 in the premier next season.

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36 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Agreed, parachute payments will be even less next year. We wont be in a position to buy the leagues best players anymore - and the season after we will have to start selling prized assets to the newly relegated teams with the extra money just to keep afloat.

Also, a few years back we used to win the reserves league regularly but now we are struggling and not bringing through much young talent, we may need to start relying on kids if we don't go up in the next 2 seasons. I really hope the club are doing something to improve the youth set up.

I don't see this happening at all, Tony is minted, there will be ways to get vast sums of money still into the club, probably wouldn't even need the parachute payments with Tonys billions. Let's not fret about money, unless Tony gets bored, but I think he will want to prove a point to all the Chinese press and make Aston Villa premier league contenders to save face.

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16 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Physically there isn't a huge difference, if any at all. The Championship is a professional league and at the top end, with the resources at a club like Newcastle or Aston Villa it is every bit as pro as the PL. The difference is in the decision making. It appears faster because even at a plum average mid table team like Southampton, they cycle through the phases quicker. 

Confidence is a big factor at any level of football, but in the PL it is maybe the most important. The confidence to pick the ball up and back yourself to make the right decision in an instant. This is where the managers earn their crust. As much as I dislike him Eddie Howe for example backs his players to play a certain way, he breaths that faith into them and so they do OK with subjectively weaker players ability wise. 

Newcastle will do fine, their manager is top class and he will have them up for it. Brighton I'm not so sure about. In truth, it's really hard to predict until they are playing regularly against that level of opposition. It's one thing Leeds going to Liverpool in the cup with nothing to lose and putting up a good fight, it's another when you're facing that relentless onslaught every week. 

All valid points there DDID

Personally I think this side would do from better than last seasons in premier league. It could still potentially go down but I think it would do better. 

I've noticed with premier league you do have to have quality but CONFIDENCE is so big there. Look at Chelsea last year and Leicester this year as examples

Brightons problem may be lack of experience. That's why maybe if we went up this year we may do better than Brighton should they go up.

I do hope Brighton go up and stay up. I like them. God club, good manager and I like how they play football. 

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1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

You would be inclined to think so, but looking at the points tally of the SIX it looks like it will be higher.

it's all hypothetical obviously, but statistically 75 points has been enough every season bar one in the the last 12.

Results Saturday shows that teams in and around that top 6 are not invincible by any stretch. They will all be dropping points on the run in

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We will easily be in playoff contention next season. We won't be that far away by the end of this year and that with 18 games below par. 10 under RDM and 8 under Bruce. I can't see us wasting so many games next season. Automatic will mean us hardly wasting any so no bad runs at all. 

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1 hour ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Spot on. 

Bruce certainly, IMO, played a role in cocking up our promotion hopes. After a good start his ability to motivate the players seemed to disappear and his tactics became increasingly negative, with us playing far too deep and far too kick and rush. 

Whilst Bruce deserves a lot of credit for turning things around over the past 6 games, he certainly was culpable for our Jan - mid Feb form. How this team, with the players it has, and the money spent, is not top 6, especially given how shite this league is, is frankly ridiculous. 

I think it was more to do with all the changes that happened.  Before 2017, the players were relatively settled and producing fairly poor football with decent results.  Once January hit, we lost players to the AFCON, sold some players, bought a whole load of new players... they were always going to take some time to learn how each other plays and, in Bruce's case, what his best team is.

Obviously, Bruce takes a part of the "blame" there and, now that we're sort-of-settled, results have improved and the team looks more cohesive.  I think it's naive to assume that spending a lot of money = team that wins the league but, at the same time, it should mean higher quality players overall.  That's what encourages me for next season.

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