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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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3 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

I don't think Derby have the squad to last, but we will see. What they do have is the best manager in the division. 

Well they started the season with 8 forwards, we started with 5

they changed 3 in the Bristol Game in one go.

most teams in the division have decent quantity.....we probably have decent quality.

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31 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

I don't think Derby have the squad to last, but we will see. What they do have is the best manager in the division. 

Personally I’d say Bruce, Nuno and Warnock are all better than Rowett. His style is very limited as a counter attacking side (if he was here and we played under his way, there would be a hell of a lot of criticism).

I can see Derby dropping to 5th end of the season. 

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Let's hope that is the case with them and they do slip away but giving as they have a squad full of players and a fairly decent manager now it's just a question of if they can go the whole duration this season. 

For me they will definitely be in contention for that automatic place right towards the end unfortunately and we need to ensure we match or better their results in the fight for second.

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We can take anybody in this league, especially with the way we're playing. I can't see too many teams beating us. Our defence is too solid and not too many teams can keep us out with the way we're playing now. Assuming we've turned a corner and this isn't another false dawn, I'm very confident of getting 2nd place. 

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6 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Bruce out.

Will be 7 without a win for your boys after tonight so I’d be more worried about Johnson if I were you :D

i still think you can finish top half though ;)

Edited by Eastie
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4 hours ago, Eastie said:

Will be 7 without a win for your boys after tonight so I’d be more worried about Johnson if I were you :D

i still think you can finish top half though ;)

Couple more games and we should be safe from relegation.

Knowing City we'll win tonight, 1-0 after 90 mins and then 3-2 AET, so we go out on away goals (because it's a weird variation of away goals for some reason).

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22 hours ago, omariqy said:

No I think it will get us 2nd. No chance we get 1st IMO.

thats what i was saying in response to someone who said we had a chance to finish 1st above Wolves. 

I think we're agreeing with each other :D

 

Edited by ender4
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22 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Or, to be factual just 3 points currently?

To be even more specific, if we beaten Derby 2-0 instead of losing 2-0 we'd be in 2nd place right now.

But why let facts get in the way of a good story eh, big improvement needed guys............apparently.

or to stay factual, you can look back at my maths based post about the ppg (points per game) and look at the trends which is what i did in that post (out of date by the latest game or two now).

I'm not sure what story you are imagining, but you're talking to someone who has supported Bruce through the bad patches, did expect and still do expect us to finish second.

Also, as i've pointed out since, my initial post was in response to someone saying we had a good chance to finish 1st (not second).

I'd be surprised and disappointed if we didn't finish second, but i'd be very shocked if we finished first. 

But either way, we need to increase our overall ppg - though pgg starts becoming less relevant if we get to the stage of a straight up fight between us and Derby (rather than 4 teams fighting for second). 

The other way to look at it, at the time of my post we were 5 points behind second, and spent 4 months closing the gap by 2 points.
At that rate, we would have closed the gap on second by December or something ;)

 

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15 minutes ago, ender4 said:

or to be even more factual, you can look back at my maths based post about the ppg (points per game) and look at the trends which is what i did in that post (out of date by the latest game or two now).

You can see that our ppg needs a big improvement, or alternatively Derby's ppg needs a knock back.

I'm not sure what story has materialised in your head, but you're talking to someone who has supported Bruce through the bad patches, and did expect and still do expect us to finish second.

Also, as i've pointed out since, my initial post was in response to someone saying we had a good chance to finish 1st (not second).

I'd be surprised and disappointed if we didn't finish second, but i'd be very shocked if we finished first. 

But either way, we need to increase our overall ppg - though pgg starts becoming less relevant once we can start discounting Cardiff and Bristol, etc. 

 

The other way to look at it, at the time of my post we were 5 points behind second, and spent 4 months closing the gap by 2 points. at that rate, we would have closed the gap on second by December or something ;)

 

I agree with your re second. However your point about ppg doesn't really stack up because that is not how football works. We are not the same proposition we were back in December. We may have spent 4 months closing the gap by 2 points but that does not mean that will play out for the next part of the season. We have momentum and players coming back. The fixture list is also kinder to us.

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Just now, omariqy said:

I agree with your re second. However your point about ppg doesn't really stack up because that is not how football works. We are not the same proposition we were back in December. We may have spent 4 months closing the gap by 2 points but that does not mean that will play out for the next part of the season. We have momentum and players coming back. The fixture list is also kinder to us.

yeah, i agree with you. :)

But unless we can see the future, all we can do is extrapolate, looks a trends, or otherwise guesstimates of scores etc.  

passes the time on here anyway ;) 

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29 minutes ago, ender4 said:

or to stay factual, you can look back at my maths based post about the ppg (points per game) and look at the trends which is what i did in that post (out of date by the latest game or two now).

I'm not sure what story you are imagining, but you're talking to someone who has supported Bruce through the bad patches, did expect and still do expect us to finish second.

Also, as i've pointed out since, my initial post was in response to someone saying we had a good chance to finish 1st (not second).

I'd be surprised and disappointed if we didn't finish second, but i'd be very shocked if we finished first. 

But either way, we need to increase our overall ppg - though pgg starts becoming less relevant if we get to the stage of a straight up fight between us and Derby (rather than 4 teams fighting for second). 

The other way to look at it, at the time of my post we were 5 points behind second, and spent 4 months closing the gap by 2 points.
At that rate, we would have closed the gap on second by December or something ;)

 

I was going to say I'd be surprised if you finished second, but looking at the table I probably wouldnt.

Derby bottle it every season, it's what they do.

Cardiff will drop away.

We wont come second.

 

So that leaves you or teams from Shef UTD down, who need to catch up more points than we do.

Villa are finishing second, congratulations.

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8 minutes ago, ender4 said:

yeah, i agree with you. :)

But unless we can see the future, all we can do is extrapolate, looks a trends, or otherwise guesstimates of scores etc.  

passes the time on here anyway ;) 

True. Hence why I have a spreadsheet of my prediction for each result for the rest of the season.

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12 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

I was going to say I'd be surprised if you finished second, but looking at the table I probably wouldnt.

Derby bottle it every season, it's what they do.

Cardiff will drop away.

We wont come second.

 

So that leaves you or teams from Shef UTD down, who need to catch up more points than we do.

Villa are finishing second, congratulations.

Why were you going to say that? Especially as we just pummelled you 5-0 a couple of weeks back. 

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5 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Why were you going to say that? Especially as we just pummelled you 5-0 a couple of weeks back. 

I'd say there were mitigating factors around the 5-0.

7 players injured, 4 of them being first choice or close to, plus a suspension, and at the time we had 7 players who had played more than anyone else in Europe over the previous month because we had no options to rotate.

After going behind we went a bit gung-ho, leaving ourselves open to more attacks.

Not saying you didn't deserve the win, the better team on the night won.

But I didn't think you'd be as high as you are this season- had you down as just missing out on playoffs (had us as lower mid table).

Also one result in isolation is a poor way to judge a whole season. Otherwise I should be shocked that Derby are second, as we hammered them in our home game.

10 seasons ago we reached the playoff final, that season we lost 6-0 to Ipswich who finished 8th that season.

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