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Pre match thread


Sam3773

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5 minutes ago, BOF said:

Given that mine is the only possession-related post above, I hope you didn't infer from it that I wanted high possession stats.  If you did then you picked me up completely wrong.  I was only observing that on Saturday we'll have 2 sides who prefer to have <50% possession and it'll be interesting to see how that plays out on the pitch.  I couldn't give less of a damn what our possession stats are :)

No not at all... it was a rant that has been in my head for a while and could have been triggered by any mention of the word :)

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Just now, TrentVilla said:

No not at all... it was a rant that has been in my head for a while and could have been triggered by any mention of the word :)

And with that in mind, can you spot where Brucey took over? :D (numbers from Sky stats website)

7f392ca0d043459443e87decbd570ddd.png

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Was it around when we started winning games? :)

Joking aside though, look at Preston where we had 60% because we were chasing the game compared to say Rotherham where we were walking it with less than 50%

There is nothing wrong with possession stats I guess, its the way they are used I object to as for some they almost seem to over rule making an assessment of a performance by watching it. 

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8 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

Was it around when we started winning games? :)

Joking aside though, look at Preston where we had 60% because we were chasing the game compared to say Rotherham where we were walking it with less than 50%

There is nothing wrong with possession stats I guess, its the way they are used I object to as for some they almost seem to over rule making an assessment of a performance by watching it. 

They're the single-most deceptive stats in football.  We beat Southampton 3-2 in the 13/14 season with 22.9% possession. That same season we lost 2-0 to West Ham with 67.8%.

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Proof is in the number of points we accrue, I suppose. Whats possesion without an end product.

I guess until Bruce adds to and builds the team he wants, he has to make the best of what he has. If that means winning ugly, then I'll take it. 

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3 hours ago, BOF said:

They're the single-most deceptive stats in football 

Aren't possession stats calculated based on the number of passes a team makes rather than on actual time in possession ? AFAIK a team with lots of short passes will artificially inflate the percentage if possession they have in the match stats. 

Edited by villa89
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At the end of the day teams that have more possession win more games, there are exceptions to this rule so don't quote me and lazily cite "Leicester !!".

I think Bruce only has us playing this rather turgid way though because of fitness levels/players aren't as good as we thought they were.

Hopefully we can be more dynamic against these mugs.

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On 31/10/2016 at 10:57, Marley the Bognor Villan said:

I will be sitting in the corner of K5 (front row) and displaying this flag (my son with Jack Grealish) near the '2' on the '12th man' banner. If anyone can see it from where you are sitting I would really appreciate it if you could take a pic and send me the jpg for my sons Villa scrapbook. :-)

14344104_2116944918531086_1352368252544523303_n.jpg

Looks like Grealish's head's gone. 

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42 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Aren't possession stats calculated based on the number of passes a team makes rather than on actual time in possession ? AFAIK a team with lots of short passes will artificially inflate the percentage if possession they have in the match stats. 

No. They're based on time in possession of the ball.

A team that makes a lot of short passes but doing very little with it will naturally inflate their possession stat by having more possession ;)

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18 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

No. They're based on time in possession of the ball.

I think I was right:

"Opta now record possession in a football match by means of an automated calculation based on the number of passes that a team has in a game.Feb 26, 2012"

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1 hour ago, villa89 said:

I think I was right:

"Opta now record possession in a football match by means of an automated calculation based on the number of passes that a team has in a game.Feb 26, 2012"

The stats thrown around for possession during games aren't from Opta.

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15 hours ago, NottingVilla said:

At the end of the day teams that have more possession win more games, there are exceptions to this rule so don't quote me and lazily cite "Leicester !!".

I think it's more than just exceptions.  Yes obviously Leicester are the outstanding example of that, so no wonder you didn't want people 'lazily' mentioning them and poking a huge hole in it ;) I'd say 'generally' the better sides have more of the ball, but that there are plenty of examples of teams going a season with <50% and doing very well.

This season's example so far in the Premier League seems to be Watford on 47.2% above ball hogs Man Utd & Southampton.  With Crystal Palace being an example of the opposite.

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