Steve Bruce

[CardiffGreens]

40 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I’ll admit that I don’t quite understand the Expected Goal stat. But this makes for grim reading if there’s value in it. 

<big graph>

I *think* (and I'm happy enough to learn something new today if someone is able to correct me), is the table only ranks teams against the % of the xG value that comes from chances in "open play".  So a) it ignores set pieces (fine, if the summer has taught me anything, those goals don't count anyway) b) (more pertinently) it ignores your total xG value entirely, as it's only the % of that value from open play that's being used to form the graph.  EDIT C) Also, this ratio will proportionally weight against you if you're creating better chances from set pieces than from open play (as the ratio is a function of both quality and quantity of open play/set piece chances).

If I've read that right, this would be useful against the context of a ranked table of overall xG (though after 3 games, is that even much use?), or even what each ratio actually equated to in xG.

If I've read it wrong, feel free to ignore the above post!

Edited August 20, 2018 by CardiffGreens

[srsmithusa]

10 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

but folks frequently compare us to other championship teams as a stick to beat bruce with so why is it not ok to do so when it's to defend him?

Actually, I don’t. But I think a positive comparison to championship teams and a comparable comparison to championship teams are both somewhere on the scale of negative.  

No comment about the rest of the post?  The majority of the footballing positives were things we all hope and wish will happen, not things that we have seen yet.  Is that not a bit damning? 

[Stevo985]

31 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said:

I was replying specifically to the "goals from open play" ratio table. Do you not think that Jedinak's physical presence at set pieces is important to Bruce's style of play?

If we're talking about CB's then Elphick is a CB,Tuanzebe is a CB, Jedinak is not. This 'square pegs in round holes syndrome' is stopping us gelling as a defensive unit.

Yeah I know you were. But no I don't think that's why he's being picked.

I think Jedinak is being picked because he's our best CB, excluding Chester (as he's the other CB position).

Which is a sad indictment of Elphick and Tuanzebe.

[Stevo985]

30 minutes ago, CardiffGreens said:

I *think* (and I'm happy enough to learn something new today if someone is able to correct me), is the table only ranks teams against the % of the xG value that comes from chances in "open play".  So a) it ignores set pieces (fine, if the summer has taught me anything, those goals don't count anyway) b) (more pertinently) it ignores your total xG value entirely, as it's only the % of that value from open play that's being used to form the graph.  EDIT C) Also, this ratio will proportionally weight against you if you're creating better chances from set pieces than from open play (as the ratio is a function of both quality and quantity of open play/set piece chances).

If I've read that right, this would be useful against the context of a ranked table of overall xG (though after 3 games, is that even much use?), or even what each ratio actually equated to in xG.

If I've read it wrong, feel free to ignore the above post!

No I think you've read it right.

Essentially it means we create 36% of our "Expected Goals" from open play.

A sample of 3 games is nowhere near enough to use that as our actual ratio, but it shows what we've all saud after Saturday's game, that we're not creating enough from open play and that needs to improve, pronto.

What I was doubting in my original post was how accurate "xG" is. I don't really know how it's calculated.

[villabromsgrove]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Yeah I know you were. But no I don't think that's why he's being picked.

I think Jedinak is being picked because he's our best CB, excluding Chester (as he's the other CB position).

Which is a sad indictment of Elphick and Tuanzebe.

With Tuanzebe played along side Chester regularly enough to build an understanding, our CB's could push up higher with Tuanzebe being athletic enough to track back.

We have to play deeper with Bruce's choice of Jedinak and Chester because of the total lack of pace, so the team can't press efficiently as a cohesive unit, and it also increases the number of long balls out from the back.

Steve's decision, and it appears he currently agrees with you Stevo.

 

[PompeyVillan]

Tuenzebe didn't fill me with confidence against Yeovil, but surely we've signed the lad to give him a chance at CB. I hope Bruce is easing him into the team, because Jedinak doesn't have the stamina at his age to play every game. Also he's shown to be inconsistent at CB. 

My worry with Chester and Tuenzebe is neither of them are the big dominant CB types. I think this is why Jedinak is getting the nod, because he basically wins everything in the air, and in theory should be able to play the ball because he is a midfielder, but in reality he looks uncomfortable at CB. Maybe he will play himself into form? 

Either way, if Chester gets injured our season is over. He's the glue, and without him we'd be hopeless. 

I think missing out on Joe Bryan hurt us a fair bit. Hutton is currently the #1 left back and right back, and #4 CB. 

Bruce has alot of holes to fill with loan signings. I would say we need a CB, a CF and a winger or two. 

 

[CardiffGreens]

4 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

What I was doubting in my original post was how accurate "xG" is. I don't really know how it's calculated.

Link for some light Monday afternoon reading. (Long story short, each chance is given a value from 0 to 1, based on the probability that a goal should be scored from that chance, that value is assigned a value from a model that was put together off research that looked back at >300000 other chances).  I couldn't say how accurate it is (and like just about any stat there are limitations to what it represents).

[tomav84]

45 minutes ago, srsmithusa said:

Actually, I don’t. But I think a positive comparison to championship teams and a comparable comparison to championship teams are both somewhere on the scale of negative.  

No comment about the rest of the post?  The majority of the footballing positives were things we all hope and wish will happen, not things that we have seen yet.  Is that not a bit damning? 

so i indicated that mcginn looks a good signing...not 'hope he will be'. kodjia 'is improving' not 'hope will improve' - so again present tense used. you chose to disagree with my point around the football not being too bad when you compare to the other championship teams, who many (didnt say necessarily you) aspire us to play like.

so i stand by my 'footballing positives' list with the exception of the loan signing links as there is no substance to any of the rumours, so i will retract that one if i may

[Stevo985]

33 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said:

With Tuanzebe played along side Chester regularly enough to build an understanding, our CB's could push up higher with Tuanzebe being athletic enough to track back.

We have to play deeper with Bruce's choice of Jedinak and Chester because of the total lack of pace, so the team can't press efficiently as a cohesive unit, and it also increases the number of long balls out from the back.

Steve's decision, and it appears he currently agrees with you Stevo.

 

That's all well and good, but is Tuanzebe ACTUALLY any good? Because judging him by his performances in a Villa shirt so far there is no way I'd trust him at CB.
I'll acknowledge that he's been played out of position mostly so it may not be a good way to judge him, but it's all I have to go on, and it's not very reassuring.

Jedinak was being picked at CB last season when Terry was out. We had Elphick and Tuanzebe and Samba then too. It was nothing to do with him being a threat at set pieces, otherwise surely Samba would get the nod?
It was because he was the best player available in that position.

I agree with you about the limitations of playing with Jedinak at CB. But the problem isn't that we're not playing Tuanzebe or Elphick, it's that we don't have a better option than any of them.

Jedi is better than Elphick and Tuanzebe. I will happily admit that Tuanzebe MIGHT be better than Jedinak, but I can only judge him on what I've seen so far and it's not very encouraging.
Regardless I don't believe that Bruce's train of thought is "Well Tuanzebe is a better player, but Jedinak might score more from st pieces so I'll play him instead"
I believe Jedinak is getting the nod because he's the best player we have in that position. And that's the real problem.

[srsmithusa]

10 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

so i indicated that mcginn looks a good signing...not 'hope he will be'. kodjia 'is improving' not 'hope will improve' - so again present tense used. you chose to disagree with my point around the football not being too bad when you compare to the other championship teams, who many (didnt say necessarily you) aspire us to play like.

so i stand by my 'footballing positives' list with the exception of the loan signing links as there is no substance to any of the rumours, so i will retract that one if i may

Not trying to quarrel. Basically agreeing.  I think McGinn looks a great talent. I hope he proves us both right.  And it was great to see kodj out of the blocks. I hope it’s a good sign he’s returning to his pre-injury, lethal self.  

I just don’t feel as positive about our current play as you apparently do.  I hope we both see more positives very soon. 

[PompeyVillan]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

That's all well and good, but is Tuanzebe ACTUALLY any good? Because judging him by his performances in a Villa shirt so far there is no way I'd trust him at CB.
I'll acknowledge that he's been played out of position mostly so it may not be a good way to judge him, but it's all I have to go on, and it's not very reassuring.

Jedinak was being picked at CB last season when Terry was out. We had Elphick and Tuanzebe and Samba then too. It was nothing to do with him being a threat at set pieces, otherwise surely Samba would get the nod?
It was because he was the best player available in that position.

I agree with you about the limitations of playing with Jedinak at CB. But the problem isn't that we're not playing Tuanzebe or Elphick, it's that we don't have a better option than any of them.

Jedi is better than Elphick and Tuanzebe. I will happily admit that Tuanzebe MIGHT be better than Jedinak, but I can only judge him on what I've seen so far and it's not very encouraging.
Regardless I don't believe that Bruce's train of thought is "Well Tuanzebe is a better player, but Jedinak might score more from st pieces so I'll play him instead"
I believe Jedinak is getting the nod because he's the best player we have in that position. And that's the real problem.

I agree, but what can we do about it now? We're only likely to get another prospect on loan, which is unlikely to improve our squad. 

A whopping John Terry like deal for Marchisio? We'll have to do with what we've got until January probably. 

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, PompeyVillan said:

I agree, but what can we do about it now? We're only likely to get another prospect on loan, which is unlikely to improve our squad. 

A whopping John Terry like deal for Marchisio? We'll have to do with what we've got until January probably. 

Basically.

Either find a decent CB available on loan or a free agent, or make do with what we've got.

IF Tuanzebe is good enough, then that has to be the long term option for the season. But it makes me very nervous that this is what we have to work with for the season.

 

Shows you how **** we would be if Chester had had to be sold.

[StefanAVFC]

Whose fault is it that we're this unbalanced at CB?

We never replaced JT and even last year we were light at the position!

[Stevo985]

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

Whose fault is it that we're this unbalanced at CB?

We never replaced JT and even last year we were light at the position!

It's Bruce's 100% if he has a say in signings (we can't seem to decide whether he has or not. Probably only decides the bad ones  )

Although the financial uncertainty in the Summer can't have made it easy. I'm sure people will say that's an excuse, but it's definitely been a factor.

[TheStagMan]

2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

I think the reasoning for playing Jedinak at CB is he’s our second best CB (behind Chester)

which in itself is very worrying. 

This I just don't get though. Tuanzebe is supposed to be this hot Man U prospect that we have on loan, why on earth would we loan a player worse than Jedinak at CB?

 

We need more CB's - we were weak (coverage-wise) at CB last season, even weaker this season, and worryingly in Steve's press conferences, CB is not a position he mentions as needing strengthening.

[Stevo985]

5 minutes ago, TheStagMan said:

This I just don't get though. Tuanzebe is supposed to be this hot Man U prospect that we have on loan, why on earth would we loan a player worse than Jedinak at CB?

 

We need more CB's - we were weak (coverage-wise) at CB last season, even weaker this season, and worryingly in Steve's press conferences, CB is not a position he mentions as needing strengthening.

I have no idea.

It's absolutely a position that needs a good signing, imo.

[TheStagMan]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

I have no idea.

It's absolutely a position that needs a good signing, imo.

I wonder if we can't get a decent reliable loan player in, could we entice Terry back on a six month contract until the Jan window and then get in another CB?

[Stevo985]

2 minutes ago, TheStagMan said:

I wonder if we can't get a decent reliable loan player in, could we entice Terry back on a six month contract until the Jan window and then get in another CB?

The problem is, unless Terry has been incredibly disciplined over the summer and kept himself in great shape, then at his age he's going to take a while to be up to Match fitness. So even if that was an option and we signed him right now, I doubt he'd be making the team for a few weeks.

I honestly don't know what the solution is, or what Bruce thinks the solution is.

Part of me thinks he just sees Jedinak as good enough to be our first choice CB. And whilst I kind of agree that he's our best option right now, I don't agree that he's good enough to be there all season.

[srsmithusa]

I know it’s ahainst some code for a committed Bruce out poster to disagree with a criticism of Bruce, but I recall Jedinak playing a few solid matches at CB.  But only if the opponents were not speed merchants that press high.  My problem is not nearly as much who he plays where, but the tactical purpose (or lack thereof) for who plays where.  Jedinak should not be CB IF the opponent deals in speed and high pressure, and not if the plan is to play possession through the midfield.  In fact, if the plan is to play possession through the middle, Jedinak should not play at all.  If the opponent play long balls to a big striker, and that’s our plan as well, then Jedinak will have a great match at CB OR DM

[ciggiesnbeer]

2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

It's Bruce's 100% if he has a say in signings (we can't seem to decide whether he has or not. Probably only decides the bad ones  )

Although the financial uncertainty in the Summer can't have made it easy. I'm sure people will say that's an excuse, but it's definitely been a factor.

I cut him some slack for this. Reversing from "burn the furniture everything must go! Aston Villa is doomed!" to "nevermind, we are fine, go build a promotion  challenging squad again." was quite the whiplash summer for him.

 

That said though, he has to deal with it now. We need CB's desperately. I sure wish Elphick hadnt cratered

Edited August 20, 2018 by ciggiesnbeer