Chindie Posted October 9, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2016 Off topic so best not continue here, but I think that's quite a rosy look at things. My job these days gets me updates from very large organisations on the impact of leaving and let's say their outlook is largely set to 'not good'. Only this week a large group of businesses has petitioned the government to not 'hard Brexit'. Anywho... UKIP. Tearing itself apart. Glorious to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Xann Posted October 9, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted October 9, 2016 7 hours ago, Awol said: ... The next few years will definitely be uncertain, but difficulties will be balanced with new opportunities - not least free trade deals with major economies that are actually growing. You're hoping on golden eggs from the turkeys in charge. I see a more likely scenario of growing whining that they don't like the EU negotiators. At that point NF (how apt) and BJ should be publicly drowned in lavatories, but they and the Tories will just blame the EU with probable backing from the usual suspects in the media. For other territories there's a hurry on, and that's bad. They're going to want force changes through quickly. Resistance to TTIP (of which the worst aspects were insisted on by the Tories) grew over time. I fear the ink's going to be dry on new deals before people realise the consequences. We're going backwards. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Enda Posted October 9, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted October 9, 2016 Talk about a Panglossian view, Awol! Just a few points. "WTO tariffs average about 2.5%, the £ has depreciated by about 15% since the vote. Our exports are already vastly more competitive as a result, hence the IMF ripping up their pre-vote predictions of doom and confirming the UK as the fastest growing developed economy in the world." 1. Exports are more competitive, but by definition this makes your imports more expensive. The only point of exports is to pay for imports. Your imports just became 15% more expensive, so everything from your wine to your petrol just increased from £6 to £7. And that's before your start adding the extra tariffs, further devaluations, and non-tariff barriers to trade that will come. (PS, so much for Farage's claim that the sterling drop was a market over-reaction and would return to its old levels. How's that working out, Nige? Talk about an optimistic forecast.) 2. It's not the fastest growing developed economy in the world. It's the fastest growing out of the G7. So seven countries, not the forty or OECD countries. But this is a false equivalence; growth would still have been even higher absent Brexit. "Those companies that export to the EU are already compliant with all EU legislation so only have to maintain that position and stay up to date with changes as they would have done anyway had we remained members." So what you're saying is that the single-market regulations aren't all that taxing? Glad to hear it, it's not said enough. "Given the overwhelming significance of the UK market for their exports, Ireland may have to consider leaving the EU too to achieve tarrif free access, of Brussels rejects free trade." Any suggestion that Ireland will leave the EU to get a free trade deal with the UK indicates a serious misunderstanding of Irish public opinion and economic reality. We will not leave the EU, even for a united Ireland. "Agricultural subsidies will continue (confirmed) as will R & D grants to universities." Do you really think post-Brexit UK (i.e. the Tories) will offer the same subsidies as the CAP over the medium term? As for universities, I'm an academic -- UK universities are uniformly against this. It will damage higher education in the UK, no question. Higher education is the most international industry in the world, and so isolating the UK from its largest trading partner is a significant blow. I know a handful of brilliant researchers - previously happy to teach, research, and pay taxes in the UK, and provide free advice to policymakers - who are figuratively packing up their bags already. Universities will not be able to attract international talent, and Oxford/Cambridge/LSE will no longer take a disproportionate share of H2020, like they did with EU FP7. Limiting the number of foreign students, who pay full fees, is an absolute boon to universities in Dublin. "The next few years will definitely be uncertain, but difficulties will be balanced with new opportunities - not least free trade deals with major economies that are actually growing." The EU is the largest market in the world, larger than the US, with 200 million citizens (Poland, etc.) primed for considerable growth, and is right on your doorstep. Yet you're banking on 30 year stable growth in China and India, countries that aren't exactly stable democracies. And omitting that the EU will likely match any deals the UK strikes with China/India/Russia/Brazil/Indonesia/whoever. Imagine Canada saying they relish removing free trade with the US to make a move in India, and casually overlooking that the US also has an eye on that market. Madness. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 9, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Enda said: Talk about a Panglossian view, Awol! Just a few points. "WTO tariffs average about 2.5%, the £ has depreciated by about 15% since the vote. Our exports are already vastly more competitive as a result, hence the IMF ripping up their pre-vote predictions of doom and confirming the UK as the fastest growing developed economy in the world." 1. Exports are more competitive, but by definition this makes your imports more expensive. The only point of exports is to pay for imports. Your imports just became 15% more expensive, so everything from your wine to your petrol just increased from £6 to £7. And that's before your start adding the extra tariffs, further devaluations, and non-tariff barriers to trade that will come. (PS, so much for Farage's claim that the sterling drop was a market over-reaction and would return to its old levels. How's that working out, Nige? Talk about an optimistic forecast.) For an idea of the Tory viewpoint in imports... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Enda said: Talk about a Panglossian view, Awol! Just a few points. Don't bring me into this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted October 9, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2016 The best of all possible worlds, my dear Cunégonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 (edited) On 10/9/2016 at 15:41, Enda said: Talk about a Panglossian view, Awol! Just a few points. "WTO tariffs average about 2.5%, the £ has depreciated by about 15% since the vote. Our exports are already vastly more competitive as a result, hence the IMF ripping up their pre-vote predictions of doom and confirming the UK as the fastest growing developed economy in the world." 1. Exports are more competitive, but by definition this makes your imports more expensive. The only point of exports is to pay for imports. Your imports just became 15% more expensive, so everything from your wine to your petrol just increased from £6 to £7. And that's before your start adding the extra tariffs, further devaluations, and non-tariff barriers to trade that will come. (PS, so much for Farage's claim that the sterling drop was a market over-reaction and would return to its old levels. How's that working out, Nige? Talk about an optimistic forecast.) This is quite important. The UK is a net importer, so unless the new found relative attractiveness of our exports rises such that it offsets this, the gain is very little. The gap between imports and exports is currently around £18bn. Edited October 10, 2016 by Dr_Pangloss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_c Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 On 09/10/2016 at 17:45, Chindie said: For an idea of the Tory viewpoint in imports... She knows Yorkshire tea isn't grown in Yorkshire, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 People's Princess Diane James has now quit the 'kippers altogether. But has decided to stay on as an Independent in her £84,000 p.a. role as an MEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Farage it seems would make a great ambassador to the US according to Trump, he is the Honey G of politics, voted for by the swivel eyed who believe he is credible and not a joke thrown in for shits and giggles. Farage that is, but would he make a good ambassador? Might mean we get a better trade deal if Trump sees a kindred spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 40 minutes ago, Seat68 said: Farage it seems would make a great ambassador to the US according to Trump, he is the Honey G of politics, voted for by the swivel eyed who believe he is credible and not a joke thrown in for shits and giggles. Farage that is, but would he make a good ambassador? Might mean we get a better trade deal if Trump sees a kindred spirit. If Trump would genuinely significantly change the quality of a trade deal between two of the ten biggest economies on Earth just because his mate had become ambassador, he's even more unfit that anyone could have thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 (edited) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38089702 Quote "Another big seismic shock" could hit British politics at the next election, Nigel Farage has warned Theresa May if Brexit is not delivered by 2020. The interim UKIP leader said he suspected the Conservative Government "is not fit for the legacy of Brexit". He made the remarks at a reception in London's Ritz Hotel to celebrate his contribution to the Brexit victory. In a nod to Donald Trump's call for him to be UK ambassador to the US, he handed out Ferrero Rocher chocolates. The sweet treats were famously offered in an advert set at an "ambassador's reception" and included the oft-quoted line: "You are really spoiling us." Downing Street has already rejected Mr Trump's claim that Mr Farage would do a "great job" as ambassador by saying "there is no vacancy". Translation: Quote Tax dodging establishment millionaire hosts party at the Ritz for other establishment millionaires celebrating the fall of the establishment Edited November 24, 2016 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I found it funny how UKIP supporters were welcoming Trump's comments on Farage being UK ambassador to the US. "We want our country back". Hypocrites, and I voted leave by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 It would be best for all concerned if UKIP died a quick and painless death now. We need new parties and a new approach to politics, but having served a useful purpose I don't see what UKIP can constructively do towards achieving that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Just now, Awol said: It would be best for all concerned if UKIP died a quick and painful death now. Fixed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 24, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Awol said: I don't see what UKIP can constructively do They've never done anything constructive. They are by nature destructive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 44 minutes ago, blandy said: They've never done anything constructive. They are by nature destructive. Creative destruction can be constructive. Hard to deny they were the catalyst for the referendum, the most politically constructive thing to happen for 40 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted November 24, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2016 2 hours ago, Awol said: Creative destruction can be constructive. Hard to deny they were the catalyst for the referendum, the most politically constructive thing to happen for 40 years! In the same way that the iceberg was the most nautically constructive thing to happen during the voyage of the Titanic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 14 minutes ago, ml1dch said: In the same way that the iceberg was the most nautically constructive thing to happen during the voyage of the Titanic. So you're on the fence about leaving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted November 24, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 24, 2016 Quote Banks credits the success of Leave.EU to their hiring of Goddard Gunster and their subsequent adoption of "an American-style media approach". Banks said, "What [Goddard Gunster] said early on was 'facts don’t work' and that's it. The remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work. You have got to connect with people emotionally. It’s the Trump success." Following the campaign, Banks said that Leave.EU would continue campaigning as a "rightwing Momentum", ensuring that politicians do not renege on their commitment to leave the EU. Banks also considered forming a new political party. According to the bloke most responsible for UKIP, Arron Banks, they have no intention of folding up just yet. He's lovely by the way, a really nice bloke by the sound of things, I'm sure he'll save us all from the establishment. (quote from his wiki page here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arron_Banks ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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