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Jareth

Promotion 2016/7

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18 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Right then. And your solution for this is to:

Play a midfield two of a guy who hasn't scored (or even assisted for us yet IIRC) and a guy who has had one decent game in a midfield two, of which we lost anyway.

Michael118 for manager.

My reasons for picking Gana and Bacuna in a midfield 2 are well detailed in the last few pages of this thread.

It’s not a solution. It’s a possible solution which allows us to play Traore, Gil, Kozak and Agbonlahor together giving us a balance in attack which was lacking for the whole of last season.

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8 minutes ago, Michael118 said:
  • Traore, Gil, Kozak and Agbonlahor together
  • balance in attack

 

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6 minutes ago, JPAngel said:

Gardner has play nearly 60 games at CM in the last three seasons in the Championship. Less of a wildcard that playing an idiot like Bacuna in CM having had one good game there in his whole Villa career and expecting him to become a box-to-box midfield revelation.

I like Gardner and was amazed when he was loaned out at the beginning of last season when he was one of the few we had with the potential to play a more attacking midfield role. I say he could be a wildcard because I am picking a team with premier league potential in mind. I don't think Gardner is without that potential but I have a lot more doubts about him than I have with Bacuna.

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This is the promotion thread.  I shouldn't be able to see Bacuna's name in here at all.

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'SKy Bet', Betting suspended on us getting relegated

Edited by useless
I haven't looked myself seen it mentioned and screenshot on twitter.

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16 hours ago, useless said:

'SKy Bet', Betting suspended on us getting relegated

Oh ****. Must be selling Bacuna. Doomed!

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16 hours ago, useless said:

'SKy Bet', Betting suspended on us getting relegated

It must have been temporary as we're back on at 33-1 now 

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58 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

It must have been temporary as we're back on at 33-1 now 

33-1? 

Absolutely mental. Who on earth would touch it at that price? I'm not overly optimistic about promotion, but us being relegated again would be up there with Leicester winning the league in terms of mind bogglingly, earth shatteringly insane. 

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2 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

33-1? 

Absolutely mental. Who on earth would touch it at that price? I'm not overly optimistic about promotion, but us being relegated again would be up there with Leicester winning the league in terms of mind bogglingly, earth shatteringly insane. 

I thought that. It's a bit of a insult to be honest. Even Norwich are 66-1! Even Derby are 40-1, how we can be deemed more likely to go down than Derby, I don't know. 

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Are we really 6 times more likely to get relegated than Newcastle and twice as likely to get relegated than Norwich? I don't think so.

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1 minute ago, BOF said:

Again, you've got to get into the mind of the bookie.  We absolutely bombed last year.  We weren't just bottom.  We were one of the worst ever.  Now OK we're the biggest fish in the Championship and if we do everything right we should be one of the favourites for promotion, and will more than likely be fine.  BUT, with that most recent Premier League season still looming large in our rear-view mirror, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we continue to plunge, and the bookie has to factor that into account.  Think of it as a reverse Leicester.  If the unthinkable happened from our perspective, and he had offered the punter 200/1 then he's on for a hiding.  Not to mention the fact that simply offering 200/1 would in itself probably lead to a flurry of speculative bets in the hope of cashing in opportunistically.

It never ceases to amaze me how people can't interpret bookies odds!

By the same token it's his job to make money. Offer 66/1 or 100/1 and people might bite and he can still remain confident of making a fast buck. Surely at 33/1 he's not tempting anybody and thus, defeating the purpose of being a bookmaker?

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4 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

By the same token it's his job to make money. Offer 66/1 or 100/1 and people might bite and he can still remain confident of making a fast buck. Surely at 33/1 he's not tempting anybody and thus, defeating the purpose of being a bookmaker?

I disagree.  I completely get why we are where we are.  We were nowhere near as good as Norwich last season and in a relegation market, that Norwich side, you would have to think will be very safe.  Similarly Derby as one of the best sides not to be promoted are relatively safe. We're an unknown quantity and I think that us having longer odds than the side who lost the playoff final last season is, if anything, fairly generous in that particular market.

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In the same way that Leicester had momentum last season, after achieving the great escape that I predicted the season before, there's always a danger that the same that could happen to us, and we can't stop the rot. A second relegation is very unlikely in my opinion but but a good start to the season is very vital.

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47 minutes ago, BOF said:

I disagree.  I completely get why we are where we are.  We were nowhere near as good as Norwich last season and in a relegation market, that Norwich side, you would have to think will be very safe.  Similarly Derby as one of the best sides not to be promoted are relatively safe. We're an unknown quantity and I think that us having longer odds than the side who lost the playoff final last season is, if anything, fairly generous in that particular market.

Ah but my argument is not a comparative one. Derby at 40/1 is ridiculous too. 

We're probably about right in the pecking order, but as a gambling man I'm not tempted by any of the odds from about Wolves down, which to me means there is something wrong. 

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1 hour ago, BOF said:

Again, you've got to get into the mind of the bookie.  We absolutely bombed last year.  We weren't just bottom.  We were one of the worst ever.  Now OK we're the biggest fish in the Championship and if we do everything right we should be one of the favourites for promotion, and will more than likely be fine.  BUT, with that most recent Premier League season still looming large in our rear-view mirror, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we continue to plunge, and the bookie has to factor that into account.  Think of it as a reverse Leicester.  If the unthinkable happened from our perspective, and he had offered the punter 200/1 then he's on for a hiding.  Not to mention the fact that simply offering 200/1 would in itself probably lead to a flurry of speculative bets in the hope of cashing in opportunistically.

It never ceases to amaze me how people can't interpret bookies odds!

I understand how they make the odds, I just think they're not factoring in the new ownership/management and the effect that that could have.

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4 minutes ago, Mantis said:

I understand how they make the odds, I just think they're not factoring in the new ownership/management and the effect that that could have.

They are factoring that in - to the promotion odds.  Different market altogether.  That's why we're second in it, above Norwich. 

Otherwise one market would just be literally the other market turned upside down.  But it isn't. 

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I've explained the reasoning behind the odds, it's because there's a danger that we might not be able to stop the momentum from last season.

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