Sam3773

The 2016 Takeover Thread

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I think people are missing the point. The fact we are in the Championship is why we are very good value. With the right kind of investment and manager we will get out of it. Yes there is now an increased risk of beings taken over by a shit owner but seriously what's the point of thinking the worse all the time. As somebody mentioned. Can things really get worse?

You feel confident asking that question with all previous evidence in mind? Things obviously can get worse as a sale is not set in stone yet. I agree that it is damning thinking negative all the time, so I'd rather hold my judgement on our predicament until the summer kicks off and we get a clearer picture of what is most likely going to happen.

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I think people are missing the point. The fact we are in the Championship is why we are very good value. With the right kind of investment and manager we will get out of it.

This. Villa is still a large club with "obvious" potential to be more successful and lucrative in the medium long-term. Putting aside our esteemed history (that few clubs in England can match), the prices Villa has been quoted at in the press is an absolute bargain.  Remember Villa has all the infrastructure to be a major premiership club - it just needs a decent bunch of players. Buy the club for £70m, invest (£40m or something in the squad), get us back in the premier, earn £70m-£80m a year in TV money plus other revenue.  The economic case is obvious IMO.  This is why Lerner has been such an idiot.  If he had just had the foresight to invest last year the club would not be in this mess and he would have been financially better off.. People say why would an investor not buy a better run premiership club?  Well, because a better run premiership club, especially one with the infrastructure Villa has, would be far far more expensive. Less risk yes, but also less potential reward.

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5 hours ago, Pilchard said:

It's not the 1990s anymore. We're in the Championship, there are a number of teams in the local area who are much better than us (including one who is about to win the league) including one who has taken a specific marketing decision to target us, and the league we are in next year is full of teams with a more dedicated, better playing squad than out bunch of losers who can't even escape a loss despite being 2-1 up after 90 minutes.

We are nowhere near the price of Everton.

You are dead right there.

However..........

On the other hand, how much potential for future growth is there for Everton compared to us.  I would say we are a million billion miles ahead on that score.

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4 hours ago, Gary Thomas said:

earn £70m-£80m a year in TV money plus other revenue.

You don't earn as a football club. Transfer prices are f'ing ludicrous. If our new owner wants to earn the TV money, we'll be left behind again while everyone around us spends theirs. Look at Newcastle's attempt to stay up this season.

Villa can be a good investment, but only on a capital basis. Anyone looking to take over the club to generate some kind of regular incime will screw us over I reckon. You can't run a football club as a business. The business model for any new owner has to be grow the value of the club, which can only really be done through success, and the exposure success brings. 

The economics are far from obvious since there is significant risk here. We may get relegated. We may get drawn into Championship limbo. We may become a yo-yo team, or we may become the team we've been for the last few seasons and scrape premiership survival by the skin of our teeth season after season.

Assuming, very simplistically for a second that an Everton valuation of £200mil is what a new owner would be aiming for, and that they buy the club for £100mil, which is a number I've seen bandied around recently. To have a 5% return on investment, they can invest a further £90million into the club. Assuming that goes on playing staff, it's a couple of decent premiership standard players really. Certainly not enough in my opinion to garantee mid table premiership safety season after season. 

This takeover could work wonders, but we either need someone who will pump money in hand over fist to get us into Champions League (where the money is), or someone who can build the Villa brand to the extent where we're a global name and attract huge sponsorship and endorsements. Anything less than that and we're destined for mediocrity at best. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Godders said:

You don't earn as a football club. Transfer prices are f'ing ludicrous. If our new owner wants to earn the TV money, we'll be left behind again while everyone around us spends theirs. Look at Newcastle's attempt to stay up this season.

Villa can be a good investment, but only on a capital basis. Anyone looking to take over the club to generate some kind of regular incime will screw us over I reckon. You can't run a football club as a business. The business model for any new owner has to be grow the value of the club, which can only really be done through success, and the exposure success brings. 

The economics are far from obvious since there is significant risk here. We may get relegated. We may get drawn into Championship limbo. We may become a yo-yo team, or we may become the team we've been for the last few seasons and scrape premiership survival by the skin of our teeth season after season.

Assuming, very simplistically for a second that an Everton valuation of £200mil is what a new owner would be aiming for, and that they buy the club for £100mil, which is a number I've seen bandied around recently. To have a 5% return on investment, they can invest a further £90million into the club. Assuming that goes on playing staff, it's a couple of decent premiership standard players really. Certainly not enough in my opinion to garantee mid table premiership safety season after season. 

This takeover could work wonders, but we either need someone who will pump money in hand over fist to get us into Champions League (where the money is), or someone who can build the Villa brand to the extent where we're a global name and attract huge sponsorship and endorsements. Anything less than that and we're destined for mediocrity at best. 

 

Leicester-City-v-Southampton.jpg

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38 minutes ago, samjp26 said:

Leicester-City-v-Southampton.jpg

Good on them.

I hope they do it.

But when LCFC win PL Spuds come 2nd, then you know that Arsenal are Shit, ManU are Farked without Fergie, ManC are  not consistent & Chelsea finish bottom half.

They came good at the perfect time.

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28 minutes ago, samjp26 said:

Leicester-City-v-Southampton.jpg

Sorry, it's late and I've had a couple of drinks, so I may be missing something obvious, but how does this refute any point I've made in my post??

I find it interesting that I read somewhere (don't remember where) that the odds on Leicester winning the league next season, and getting relegated are reasonably similar, more so than you would expect for a 'normal title winning team'. That suggests the bookies don't know if Leicester are a genuine future force in football, or if they'll have to sell Mahrez and Vardy and will end up being found out.

If we were to be having this conversation in ten years time, I would at the moment be almost certain that one of the Man U, Chelsea or Man City will have won the league at least 6 or 7 seasons out of the 10. Like it or lump it, money buys the best players, the best players make the best teams, and the best teams win the titles more often than not.

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Can't get success while he owns us. What kind of person then wants to try and negotiate a percentage of future tv rights money increase should we be promoted in the next few years ? If true.

Edited by Richard

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People keep saying invest 40-50 million on new players. We did that last summer  and have a group of players who just want paid… they don't care. Surely it's possible with the right manager/framework to go into the market and pick up players with the right mentality that will fight as a team/for the shirt at a reasonable price?

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2 minutes ago, GNeeUs said:

People keep saying invest 40-50 million on new players. We did that last summer  and have a group of players who just want paid… they don't care. Surely it's possible with the right manager/framework to go into the market and pick up players with the right mentality that will fight as a team/for the shirt at a reasonable price?

By my calculations we didn't spend a penny last year.

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2 minutes ago, GNeeUs said:

People keep saying invest 40-50 million on new players. We did that last summer  and have a group of players who just want paid… they don't care. Surely it's possible with the right manager/framework to go into the market and pick up players with the right mentality that will fight as a team/for the shirt at a reasonable price?

I think the problem is, we're going to need that much of an overhaul that were going to have to spend the money just to get the amount of players in. I would say we need..

1 gk

1 rb

2 cb

1 rw

1 lw - both wingers to be out and out wingers

At least 1 cm

2 strikers 

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13 minutes ago, Richard said:

Can't get success while he owns us. What kind of person then wants to try and negotiate a percentage of future tv rights money increase should we be promoted in the next few years ? If true.

The person who is potentially going to knock 20/30m off the asking price.

I don't have too much of an issue with that. 

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19 minutes ago, dudevillaisnice said:

Has any championship club ever spent £40m? I guess with sales etc it's probably achievable but even that doesn't seem likely. 

I think the most recent record was Derby last year spending 25 mill, might not be the most but certainly the latest biggest spenders. Which is why money ain't goona be a problem for us next season, but who spends it.

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22 minutes ago, dudevillaisnice said:

Has any championship club ever spent £40m? I guess with sales etc it's probably achievable but even that doesn't seem likely. 

http://www.transferleague.co.uk/championship-teams-last-five-seasons/transfer-league-tables/championship-last-five-season

not convinced how accurate these numbers are but should give a rough idea of spending power.

last summer very few teams spent over £9m. Most spent nothing or a few hundred thousand. 

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Not convinced that outspending everybody else in the championship is going to help us. Rather, it would foster the type of "team spirit" we have now, where the players are more than happy to turn up for a paycheque and not give a damn about results (or even personal pride).

What I'd like to see is a team full of triers. Yeah, they won't necessarily be PL standard players, but they will go a long way to changing our culture - which needs to happen first before we can realistically expect any success, short or long term.

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I guess one advantage we have is a few of the clubs in the championship have financial difficulties so would have to sell players. Clough from Bolton looks handy, Lewis Cook maybe we can persuade him Cellino doesn't seem the best of owners. Talent is there in the championship, just we tended to target the cheaper options. Not saying we are going to spend £40m etc but I think £10m should be the very minimum we spend this summer even under Randy Lerner. I think what is achievable is to make a squad that the fans can connect with and enjoy, as it stands that isn't the case.

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9 hours ago, Grasshopper said:

Good on them.

I hope they do it.

But when LCFC win PL Spuds come 2nd, then you know that Arsenal are Shit, ManU are Farked without Fergie, ManC are  not consistent & Chelsea finish bottom half.

They came good at the perfect time.

Why can't it just be that Leicester are indeed a very good team with great team spirit? Spurs have the best team they had had in years, after consistently investing in top talent for a number of years (we were competitive with them a one point). Arsenal are just Arsenal, would not say they are "shit". Man City have been afftected by the shock of teams getting stronger from previous years in the Premier League, and Chelsea are just an anomaly. I constantly see people taking away from Leicesters feat, to the point where people have been predicting their inevitable fall off from last season!

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