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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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12 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Nothing has changed. Barnier has said that the UK will get the deepest, most comprehensive arrangement that the UK's self-imposed red lines will allow.

Which is what they've said from the very beginning.

Now that tube Davis has gone the tone has changed from exasperation to practicalism, influenced no doubt by the short timescales and the acceptance on both sides that no deal is massively harmful. The tone may change back if all these stupid Theresa May red lines are insisted on, mind.

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3 hours ago, blandy said:

Now that tube Davis has gone the tone has changed from exasperation to practicalism, influenced no doubt by the short timescales and the acceptance on both sides that no deal is massively harmful. The tone may change back if all these stupid Theresa May red lines are insisted on, mind.

That's one interpretation. A more cynical view is that this is just jostling for position, ready for when the blame is dished out. There is still no solution that has majority backing in Parliament (apart from possibly EEA membership, but even that will trigger a leadership challenge), and the other 27 countries plus the Commission have said from the start, and still say that the Single Market is indivisible. So which one breaks?

It's fleshed out nicely in Richard North's blog from yesterday.

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86977

The quick version: the only way that May can keep on the current crashing-out trajectory and keep the Tory party together and electable is to be as positive as possible now, so that when things collapse "at the last minute" she can say that it's all someone else's fault, and hope to carry enough people along with that narrative. 

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15 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

the only way that May can keep on the current crashing-out trajectory and keep the Tory party together and electable is to be as positive as possible now, so that when things collapse "at the last minute" she can say that it's all someone else's fault, and hope to carry enough people along with that narrative.

His theory, or  "plan" as he calls it, sounds like a load of old....to me.

There are surely 4 ultimate possibilities from the UK perspective

  • No Brexit - goes directly against referendum result, therefore all sorts of problems.
  • Soft Brexit - not much harm done, but leaves UK worse off and a powerless rule taker, so the hard right lot will melt down and maybe block it.
  • Hard Brexit - very harmful, the more central MPs will melt down and maybe block it.
  • No Deal - suicidally stupid and harmful - will be blocked by vast numbers of MPs

There are surely 2 possibilities from the EU perspective

  • A deal of some sort - a little bit of harm, but not so much
  • No deal - not getting the £39 billion, significant harm.

A "No deal" outcome,  IMO, is not going to happen. There would just be a time extension and more talking and even the possibility of a UK election and the whole thing getting called off afterwards, depending how things go with MPs and leaders n'that. It would please the EU and more than half the UK, as well.

I think we're in with a 50 - 50 chance of either a time extension, or a watering down of red lines and ultimately a soft Brexit.

Setting up scenarios where a, b, or c can be blamed is not plausible, because the tories and to a lesser extent Labour will be blamed and pay the price no matter what is claimed or said 

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On 23/08/2018 at 14:50, Genie said:

Such a mess. There's going to be people dying in hospitals being told its as a result of Brexit, I'm sure of it.

Nah, they'll be told it's a result of the evil EU not allowing us to have everything we had before we left.

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38 minutes ago, blandy said:

His theory, or  "plan" as he calls it, sounds like a load of old....to me.

There are surely 4 ultimate possibilities from the UK perspective

  • No Brexit - goes directly against referendum result, therefore all sorts of problems.
  • Soft Brexit - not much harm done, but leaves UK worse off and a powerless rule taker, so the hard right lot will melt down and maybe block it.
  • Hard Brexit - very harmful, the more central MPs will melt down and maybe block it.
  • No Deal - suicidally stupid and harmful - will be blocked by vast numbers of MPs

 

"Blocked" how? MPs' power is in voting on proposed legislation. If they aren't given something to vote on, they have about as much power to stop it as you or me.

For Parliament to have something to vote on, the withdrawal agreement needs to satisfy both parties. To get to that stage, at least one of the following needs to happen to solve their requirements for Ireland:

1) Ireland decides that it's happy for a customs and standards border across the island after all

2) the UK decides it's happy for a customs and standards border between GB and NI after all

3) the UK decides it's happy to sign up to the rules of the Single Market, the Customs Union and the common commercial policy in perpetuity.

4) The EU27 decide they are happy to give the UK full access to the Single Market while not being subject to the rules in (3)

5) Ireland decides it wants to leave the EU as well.

Unless I've missed one, one of those things has to be agreed by the Government and the Commission before MPs get the chance to say whether they like it or not. And none of them seem particularly likely.

On an extension, they'll definitely agree it in some circumstances. An imminent election or referendum, or to allow tweaking or ratification of something broadly agreed then sure - but an extension just to keep arguing the same old points a bit more? Not a chance. They want this sorted, one way or the other.

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17 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

"Blocked" how? MPs' power is in voting on proposed legislation. If they aren't given something to vote on, they have about as much power to stop it as you or me.

There's going to be a vote in parliament on whatever "deal" and it will happen before the EU vote on the same "deal". They are having something to vote on.

In the event that  parliament votes "no" to whatever Theresa May puts in front of it, then because the tories have made such an utter arse of the whole process it's not clear what happens next. One possibility is we just crash out, another is we go back to the EU, say "oops, it appears we've shit our own bed, can we, er have some time to sort ourselves out and get back to you?". May would be bound to resign, the EU would be suicidal not to allow an extension - it costs them nothing and gains them a fair bit (not least money).

Then we're back to the top 3 options I gave. 

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12 minutes ago, blandy said:

There's going to be a vote in parliament on whatever "deal" and it will happen before the EU vote on the same "deal". They are having something to vote on...

...if the withdrawal agreement is settled. There is nothing to bring to parliament for them to vote on until the Commission and the Government are agreed on the outstanding points on Ireland. Just as it has been for 18 months.

So to get there, one of those five options i referred to has to happen.

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1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

Unless I've missed one, one of those things has to be agreed by the Government and the Commission before MPs get the chance to say whether they like it or not. And none of them seem particularly likely.

The fallback option for the border. - i.e. until something is agreed it stays as it is (or is not, more accurately) si N.I effectively stays in the SM for the time being and the UK fudges some crud between N.I and the mainland.

I agree the NI border issue is ultimately insoluble with the red lines  - I was saying so before the vote, in terms of you can't have both "control of your borders and immigration" and "no border with the South" (and therefore the rest of the EU) ".

But faced with the impossibility of their/her stupidity, the tories/May will have to give way on their current hard red line.

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14 minutes ago, blandy said:

The fallback option for the border. - i.e. until something is agreed it stays as it is (or is not, more accurately) si N.I effectively stays in the SM for the time being and the UK fudges some crud between N.I and the mainland.

That's what was agreed in December, since then though the Government has (a) said that they didn't really mean it, and more importantly, (b) Parliament has voted through Amendment NC37 to the trade bill, which will make it unlawful for Northern Ireland to be in a separate customs territory to the rest of the UK. 

So when the trade bill gets Royal Assent, the proposed backstop would be illegal.

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Quote

Senior Brexiteer Dan Hannan has admitted that Brexit is "not working out" the way it was planned.
The Conservative MEP said Britain should seek an "Efta-type arrangement, à la Suisse" to protect trade with the EU.
Mr Hannan, writing on ConservativeHome, said he was often asked, "not working out the way you thought, is it?" He said: "To be fair, they've got a point."

A senior Brexiteer today admitted leaving the European Union is "not working out" the way it was planned.


Dan Hannan, the Conservative MEP whose speeches against Brussels went viral on YouTube, said Britain should seek an "Efta-type arrangement, à la Suisse" to protect trade with the EU.

He expressed surprise that an uncompromising Brexit was being pursued despite the closeness of the 52-48 referendum result which backed Leave.

Mr Hannan, writing on ConservativeHome, said he was often asked, "not working out the way you thought, is it?" He said: "To be fair, they've got a point." He went on: "I had assumed that, by now, we'd have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result."

He backed being in the European Free Trade Association (Efta) — participation in the single market of 500 million people, but without the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Former minister Stephen Hammond, a Remain backer, said the idea was gaining traction among MPs. "It solves our regulatory issues, allows access, but not membership, [to the] single market, gives us a say, rather than no say, on regulation and allows the prospect of negotiations on restricting movement to workers not citizens," he said.

Next week's crunch Cabinet committee meeting to discuss the customs issue has been brought forward a day to Tuesday. A senior source dismissed reports that the customs partnership was Prime Minister Theresa May's "preferred" option, saying that she was looking for "the option that works".

Brexiteers suggest the UK could remain in the EU customs union beyond 2020, before adopting the "maximum facilitation" proposal, while the customs partnership idea has been boosted by signs EU officials are taking it more seriously.

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2 hours ago, bickster said:

Ahem...May 10th? A fair bit has happened since then ?

(actually it hasn't, but there have at least  been lots of other half-witted articles since then by people who, like M. Hannan should be making a living holding up Stop / Go signs)

Edited by ml1dch
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10 hours ago, ml1dch said:

Because there seems to be little else to do now but laugh at idiots as RMS United Kingdom sinks to the icy depths, the replies here to Julia Hartley-Brewer I thought were very good.

 

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??

Had me in stitches for a good 20 mins

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I'll paraphrase the Tory pro brexit MP on the radio this morning:

'Checkers is a bad deal nobody wants, it cannot work and will not work the people hate it the EU won't accept it.'

Radio presenter: So what do you propose?

Tory pro brexit MP:

'We've been very clear, we want what's right for Britain.'

 

I'll now paraphrase the Tory remainer MP on the radio this morning:

'Checkers is a bad deal nobody wants, it cannot work and will not work the people hate it the EU won't accept it.'

Radio presenter: So what do you propose?

Tory remainer MP:

'We've been very clear, we want what's right for Britain.'

 

PerfectBadBeardeddragon-size_restricted.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, blandy said:

I imagine the Labour party spokesperson was unavailable. I'm sure had they been, they'd have said that (paraphrasing)

'Checkers is a bad deal nobody wants, it cannot work and will not work the people hate it the EU won't accept it, it won't pass our tests and Labour will vote against it.'

Radio presenter: So what do you propose?

Labour MP:

'We've been very clear, we want what's right for Britain.'

With such a wide range of choices, and such great intellectual honesty, I can't work out where to put my vote, either.

 

 

That's pretty much bang on actually.

They asked Labour for a statement and were told Labour would apply their 6 tests to ensure a good deal for Britain.

Utter bollocks from all of them.

I would say I'm not voting Labour next time, but they appear to have abandoned this constituency anyway. 

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1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

They asked Labour for a statement and were told Labour would apply their 6 tests to ensure a good deal for Britain.

I'm as critical as anyone of Labour's incompetent Brexit policy, but I think these six tests are pretty sensible.

If the Government promised a situation that had the "exact same benefits" (quote: D. Davis), then it makes good political sense to make that the benchmark by which to judge their success or failure.

Obviously these tests means that it's going to be a failure, but it always was going to be a failure regardless. This gives everyone a peg on which to hang their criticism.

Edited by ml1dch
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Theresa May said she wanted to unite the country, and by all accounts people as far apart as Hilary Benn, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michel Barnier all left the select committee meeting today in full agreement that her Chequers plan is absolutely terrible.

Mission accomplished.

 

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