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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy
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I'm not so sure about there being an unwillingness to go back in.

It won by the slimmest of margins and there have been PLENTY of people and their families been fecked by it who didn't see it coming.   It would be interesting to sit in on a forum for fishermen or farmers for example and see how they feel about it now and if they have changed their minds.  Pardon the pun but it wouldn't exactly take a sea change to sway back again.

It's just not yet been raised as a serious thing yet.  As someone said earlier Coronavirus has dominated proceedings for 18 months now and will likely continue to for another year as well.  But if bad news stories are still coming out after that and no tangible benefits have been identified, at some point the press are going to start asking questions and pressure groups will start to come out of the woodwork.

At that time it also won't wash that its too early days to make a judgement too.

At some point an Anti Farage figure will make an appearance and start campaigning to go back in as sure as eggs is eggs, as long as they are standardised Euro size and shape eggs.

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57 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

People feel that we have control of the borders 🤷‍♂️

The conversations you and I have on this thread keep feeling a bit surreal to me. You keep insisting that leavers should be feeling regret or that campaigning to rejoin the EU is an obvious electoral winner. But the observable reality is that there is no widespread regret among leavers; there are certainly people who have said they regret their vote when they have been interviewed on the news, but a few people expressing personal regret does not amount to a political campaign. The 'get Brexit done' Tories are still smashing the polls. No oppostion party is touting rejoining, in fact they are barely even criticising Brexit. All the para-political campaigns like the People's Vote and whatever packed up and went home. 'Pro-Europeanism' is visibly, observably, a deserted street with nothing but the occasional tumbleweed blowing past.

You're welcome to feel it *shouldn't* be that way, of course, but it feels like you keep insisting there's a political project where there clearly isn't one.

I’m not sure how you came to the conclusion my post was about rejoining the EU (although I do think we should, this post was not about that). 
A big part of the reason why the Brexit voted public voted to get control of the borders was the belief we’d 1) stop it reduce people crossing the channel and 2) we’d be able to send the ones that made it packing.

Neither of those scenarios have materialised, in fact as a non-member its harder than before.

As you mentioned re-joining I do believe it’ll happen, and it’ll get a much bigger majority than 52-48. You stated that there’s plenty of people talking on the TV about their regret, many of these people are talking on behalf of entire industries that are **** because of Brexit. That’s a lot of voters which I’d call widespread regret. Do you think fishermen and farmers would vote leave again if they could vote tomorrow? Any business with customers in the EU, exporters, importers, the car industry, the banking industry plus many others. So many thought they could have their cake and eat it, or that their vote was a protest vote which they didn’t think would “win”.

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15 minutes ago, bickster said:

The polling data for this does not support this notion.

Statista

Brexit Polls.png

I say half the country doesn't regret leaving. You present data showing just under half the country thinks we were wrong to leave. You've certainly put me in my place.

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Leave won before on the basis that economically we’d be about the same, but we’d have better control over immigration. Both failed and it’s clear. Anyone with half a brain can see that (appreciate that’s a problem for some of the Brexiteers).

Rejoin will eventually win because there is a very strong economic case things will improve for many people, and that people crossing the channel illegally will be easier to control (with the help of France / EU states). 

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4 minutes ago, Genie said:

As you mentioned re-joining I do believe it’ll happen, and it’ll get a much bigger majority than 52-48. You stated that there’s plenty of people talking on the TV about their regret, many of these people are talking on behalf of entire industries that are **** because of Brexit. That’s a lot of voters which I’d call widespread regret. Do you think fishermen and farmers would vote leave again if they could vote tomorrow?

Honestly yes, I think most would vote leave again, but more to the point they will vote Conservative at the next general election, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that. They will never proactively do anything that would even give them the chance of having that vote. And again, the Labour party don't want it either,

7 minutes ago, Genie said:

Any business with customers in the EU, exporters, importers, the car industry, the banking industry plus many others. So many thought they could have their cake and eat it, or that their vote was a protest vote which they didn’t think would “win”.

It wasn't about business or finances. It wasn't then, and it isn't now.

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

It wasn't about business or finances. It wasn't then, and it isn't now.

This is absolutely true, but if things continue down this path, we'll see how committed these people are to the idea of sovereignty over the economy when the hit to individual's pockets becomes undeniable.

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1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

I say half the country doesn't regret leaving. You present data showing just under half the country thinks we were wrong to leave. You've certainly put me in my place.

Semantics and it isn't about putting anyone in their place. The point is that there has been a significant shift in opinion since the actual referendum

It's nowhere near enough in my opinion for a rejoin movement, there needs to be a further significant shift for that to ever be a thing and even then it will take a very long time

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1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

It wasn't about business or finances. It wasn't then, and it isn't now.

I think we disagree on this.

It wasn’t then because leave voters believed the “they need is more than we need them / easiest deal in history / we hold all the cards” bollocks. 
They didn’t think it would hit them in their pockets. It very much has, and therefore business would be a major factor in any future referendum. It opens up a world of opportunity for current and future business ventures.

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3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It wasn't about business or finances. It wasn't then, and it isn't now.

I think that's over egging it. For many it most definitely was, for many others it wasn't. The reasons people gave for and against were many. It was absolutely a part of it.

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Just now, bickster said:

Semantics and it isn't about putting anyone in their place. The point is that there has been a significant shift in opinion since the actual referendum

It's nowhere near enough in my opinion for a rejoin movement, there needs to be a further significant shift for that to ever be a thing and even then it will take a very long time

That graph does not suggest there has been a shift in opinion from 'the country is evenly divided about Brexit'. I have to go back to the not-exactly-ancient-history of early June to find the last time 'right to leave' was ahead, and the differences look to be barely outside the margin of error.

FWIW I agree you can, depending on the wording of the question, frequently find at least half or a small majority of the public disapproving of Brexit. But that has very little to do with what would actually be required for a political campaign to rejoin, which is a matter of elite buy-in, not public opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, blandy said:

I think that's over egging it. For many it most definitely was, for many others it wasn't. The reasons people gave for and against were many. It was absolutely a part of it.

I'm not saying it had no part, I'm saying (admittedly quite strongly) that it's not the important part. The remain campaign was the one that was predicated on personal finances and what would happen to your wallet, and that didn't win.

I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of people in this thread left confused by why forthcoming rises in the cost-of-living won't cause a rejoin campaign to emerge, but they won't.

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5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm not saying it had no part, I'm saying (admittedly quite strongly) that it's not the important part. The remain campaign was the one that was predicated on personal finances and what would happen to your wallet, and that didn't win.

I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of people in this thread left confused by why forthcoming rises in the cost-of-living won't cause a rejoin campaign to emerge, but they won't.

Well the government that caused Brexit are going to do everything they can to avoid telling people the truth that a lot of the pain they're experiencing are because of Brexit.

I think deep down it's human nature to want to believe you haven't been conned...no one likes to feel like they're stupid, and they aren't because even intelligent people can fall for a con. I feel like a lot of people will choose, subconsciously or not, to believe this has nothing to do with a decision they made 5 years ago.

Unfortunately we have to just take the pain and wait for enough of those people to die or have some kind of epiphany that the Tory party are a bunch of posh English nationalist rocket polishers only in it for themselves.

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1 minute ago, desensitized43 said:

Well the government that caused Brexit are going to do everything they can to avoid telling people the truth that a lot of the pain they're experiencing are because of Brexit.

I think deep down it's human nature to want to believe you haven't been conned...no one likes to feel like they're stupid, and they aren't because even intelligent people can fall for a con. I feel like a lot of people will choose, subconsciously or not, to believe this has nothing to do with a decision they made 5 years ago.

Unfortunately we have to just take the pain and wait for enough of those people to die or have some kind of epiphany that the Tory party are a bunch of posh English nationalist rocket polishers only in it for themselves.

I agree that the 'sunk costs fallacy' is real, and a powerful motivating force.

Edited by HanoiVillan
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10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of people in this thread left confused by why forthcoming rises in the cost-of-living won't cause a rejoin campaign to emerge, but they won't.

I agree no significant rejoin campaign will happen (if at all) for donkey's years. The EU won't want it, no British political party (of any size) will touch it with a bargepole, the consequences of Brexit will not hit all at once, like a Tsunami, but will be more like a steady rainfall, with sunny spells. People's collective minds won't change in significant ways other than a generational one. By the time the next generation has voting rights, the world will be different to now. Other stuff will be more important.

I can foresee re-joining the single market happening in a few years as a possibility, but not much beyond that. 

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5 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

I think deep down it's human nature to want to believe you haven't been conned...no one likes to feel like they're stupid, and they aren't because even intelligent people can fall for a con. I feel like a lot of people will choose, subconsciously or not, to believe this has nothing to do with a decision they made 5 years ago

Yes, it's a fact - it's much easier to fool someone than it is to get someone who has been fooled to see that they have been fooled.

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2 hours ago, sidcow said:

At some point an Anti Farage figure will make an appearance and start campaigning to go back in as sure as eggs is eggs, as long as they are standardised Euro size and shape eggs.

I wonder if Farage is looking for a new grift?

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4 minutes ago, limpid said:

I wonder if Farage is looking for a new grift?

Plenty of people moved across from remain to leave to further their careers. 

It would be interesting to say the least if Farage became a voice for rejoin, he’s certainly shallow enough. 

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The lack of foreign workers is driving up wages.

The EU were slow on vaccines.

We have the prospect of a new trade deal with Vanuatu.

The French hate us even more and take our money to stop immigrants and then escort them across.

Imagine if we still had to pay that £350 Million a week.

They were never going to let you keep what you won in a democratic referendum

 

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