The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

As we found out with Brexit, these things don’t get decided on pragmatism or economic rationalism. It’s purely down to base emotions. Hence I think Scotch Eggsit is looking like a pretty sure bet. 

I imagine the argument to rejoin the EU (if it’s possible, a small detail like that can be ironed out later) will be quite strong, it should tip them over 50% I’d have thought. 

[chrisp65]

Fwiw I think (hope) they’d try and dodge the question of joining the EU until after the referendum. Tactically, you lose some support when you try to decide step two before step one.

[sidcow]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

I imagine the argument to rejoin the EU (if it’s possible, a small detail like that can be ironed out later) will be quite strong, it should tip them over 50% I’d have thought. 

Will they be perfectly happy having a hard border between England and Scotland? 

Also, their oil money will be gone in 20 years. It's hard to see how they earn their way after that.  I think a lot of financial services would move to England too. 

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Will they be perfectly happy having a hard border between England and Scotland? 

Also, their oil money will be gone in 20 years. It's hard to see how they earn their way after that.  I think a lot of financial services would move to England too. 

It’s all about the fish.

[sidcow]

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It’s all about the fish.

 

[Awol]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

As we found out with Brexit, these things don’t get decided on pragmatism or economic rationalism. It’s purely down to base emotions. Hence I think Scotch Eggsit is looking like a pretty sure bet. 

Right now Sturgeon has had the pandemic platform to use as a daily bully pulpit on national TV, and the Scottish media are so fawning it’s astonishing. 

The reality is Brexit has increased the desire for independence but made it almost impossible without crushing austerity. 

1) Leaving UK single market puts up a barrier to 60% of Scottish trade. That’s on top of the trade barriers with the EU from Brexit, in addition to exiting the 64 deals UK gov has nailed down since leaving the EU, with more to follow.

2) i: The biggest show-stopper is currency. If they carry on using the £ like say Panama uses the $USD then they have no central bank, no control over monetary policy and no sovereign means to issue debt and borrow internationally. 

Having an independent currency is also a prerequisite of joining the EU, they can’t just join up and agree to start with the Euro - which Scottish people don’t want anyway and SNP say they can avoid. 

ii: An independent Scottish currency. First they need to set up a central bank and I think the necessary reserves required to do that are around £30 billion. The market then decides what the new currency is worth vis existing currencies. Problem: all private debt (personal, mortgage etc) is in £GBP, ditto existing commercial debt. That doesn’t change just because Scotland decides to launch the smackerooni, so normal people now have to pay back debts in Sterling with the far less valuable  Scottish smackerooni. This isn’t going to fly with an anywhere sane electorate that doesn’t fancy bankruptcy.

3) The deficit is currently running at about £15B per annum, that is to say the UK funds £15B more spending in Scotland than Scotland earns. The level of austerity required to match current ends with independent means is literally like nothing we’ve ever seen. For comparison the Scottish NHS budget is about £13B. 

4) National Debt. Scotland’s share would be mahoosive. It is for the whole UK, but as the UK we have the strength to carry it. As an independent nation, servicing a debt of several £100 billion in Sterling with the sovereign smackerooni isn’t even feasible in light of other financial pressures.

There’s plenty, plenty more, but suffice to say Scotland faces all the same problems a Eurozone country would face if it left the EU Currency Union, just far bigger. The same goes for the chuckle-worthy idea of Welsh Indy. 

Not saying the Celtic fringe/fringe Celts have to like it, but once the reality of Indy in the post-Brexit works gets exposed, it isn’t going to happen. 

Obviously things aren’t helped by embittered Remainers in the media actively wanting to dismantle the UK because they didn’t get their own way, but it’s not stopping them trying anyway. 

[chrisp65]

Liar?

Incompetent?

Ignorant?

Or an ignorant, incompetent, liar?

Lest we forget.

 

 

 

[snowychap]

6 hours ago, Awol said:

in addition to exiting the 64 deals UK gov has nailed down since leaving the EU, with more to follow

[LondonLax]

8 hours ago, Awol said:

Right now Sturgeon has had the pandemic platform to use as a daily bully pulpit on national TV, and the Scottish media are so fawning it’s astonishing. 

The reality is Brexit has increased the desire for independence but made it almost impossible without crushing austerity. 

1) Leaving UK single market puts up a barrier to 60% of Scottish trade. That’s on top of the trade barriers with the EU from Brexit, in addition to exiting the 64 deals UK gov has nailed down since leaving the EU, with more to follow.

2) i: The biggest show-stopper is currency. If they carry on using the £ like say Panama uses the $USD then they have no central bank, no control over monetary policy and no sovereign means to issue debt and borrow internationally. 

Having an independent currency is also a prerequisite of joining the EU, they can’t just join up and agree to start with the Euro - which Scottish people don’t want anyway and SNP say they can avoid. 

ii: An independent Scottish currency. First they need to set up a central bank and I think the necessary reserves required to do that are around £30 billion. The market then decides what the new currency is worth vis existing currencies. Problem: all private debt (personal, mortgage etc) is in £GBP, ditto existing commercial debt. That doesn’t change just because Scotland decides to launch the smackerooni, so normal people now have to pay back debts in Sterling with the far less valuable  Scottish smackerooni. This isn’t going to fly with an anywhere sane electorate that doesn’t fancy bankruptcy.

3) The deficit is currently running at about £15B per annum, that is to say the UK funds £15B more spending in Scotland than Scotland earns. The level of austerity required to match current ends with independent means is literally like nothing we’ve ever seen. For comparison the Scottish NHS budget is about £13B. 

4) National Debt. Scotland’s share would be mahoosive. It is for the whole UK, but as the UK we have the strength to carry it. As an independent nation, servicing a debt of several £100 billion in Sterling with the sovereign smackerooni isn’t even feasible in light of other financial pressures.

There’s plenty, plenty more, but suffice to say Scotland faces all the same problems a Eurozone country would face if it left the EU Currency Union, just far bigger. The same goes for the chuckle-worthy idea of Welsh Indy. 

Not saying the Celtic fringe/fringe Celts have to like it, but once the reality of Indy in the post-Brexit works gets exposed, it isn’t going to happen. 

Obviously things aren’t helped by embittered Remainers in the media actively wanting to dismantle the UK because they didn’t get their own way, but it’s not stopping them trying anyway. 

Oh it’s definitely a terrible idea for all sorts of reasons but that’s exactly the point I’m making. Being a terrible idea on paper didn’t stop Brexit. All the points above can just be dismissed as ‘project fear’ etc. It’s the emotional argument that wins the day. 

[Davkaus]

3 hours ago, snowychap said:

You can laugh all you want, but exports of Scotch to Albania have never been so lucrative and free of red tape since December.

[Awol]

2 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Oh it’s definitely a terrible idea for all sorts of reasons but that’s exactly the point I’m making. Being a terrible idea on paper didn’t stop Brexit. All the points above can just be dismissed as ‘project fear’ etc. It’s the emotional argument that wins the day. 

I know what you’re saying, but there’s an order of magnitude difference. UK post-Brexit is seeing short term economic disruption. iScotland would be like Somalia with snow. When the people leading the Indy campaign can’t explain what currency will be in your pocket afterwards, they’ve got a problem. 

And Wales.... I’d LOVE to hear how that’s supposed to work

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

And Wales.... I’d LOVE to hear how that’s supposed to work

Maybe one for @chrisp65 but I believe there are far less people in Wales who would like independence.  The economics just don't make sense and I think alot of people recognise the reality of that. 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by sidcow

[chrisp65]

49 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Maybe one for @chrisp65 but I believe there are far less people in Wales who would like independence.  The economics just don't make sense and I think alot of people recognise the reality of that. 

 

Economics? Sense? It’s a bit late for that. The genie is out of the bottle and I thank Brexit for that.

Remember the last Scottish Referendum when they were told the only way to be IN the EU was to vote to remain in the ‘union’? How did that pan out? Anyone got an update? What will be the sales pitch from Westminster this time? Vote remain, you’re too dumb to go it alone and we control your bank account. Brilliant.

In fuzzy round numbers, 3 years ago 7% were interested in Indy, 18 months ago about 15% were interested in Indy. Depending on who’s poll you want to extrapolate your figures from it’s now somewhere between 22% to 30%. If you want to get nerdy about it, Wales is about where Scotland was 10 years ago. But hey, let’s have another poll once Scotland has left, that’s when it gets interesting and that’s why my money at present contributes towards Scottish independence campaigns, not Welsh. 

Less and less people are persuaded by aggressive gaslighting and the british nationalists are beginning to get a little bit more nasty. 

There’s every chance the tory and right wing funded ‘abolish’ campaign will do well in the elections in May. Bring it on.

Has any country, anywhere, ever asked to be taken back by britain once they’ve gained independence? Wasn’t Malta too small, too stupid, too poor to survive without Westminster? Did they come back? Did Ireland? Their GDP was far lower than Wales’, I expect that’s an absolute failed state over there now. How are they doing without the generosity of the Bank of England? 

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

iScotland would be like Somalia with snow.

No, it wouldn't, and saying it would really suggests you haven't learned anything from winning in 2016. An independent Scotland would clearly have lots of difficult decisions to make, and it certainly would not be easy. There would probably be a period of austerity, but most of the financial gap will be plugged with higher borrowing, which lenders will be happy to give since Scotland is a stable, prosperous North Atlantic democracy that would pose no long-term credit risk.

It is obviously not going to look anything at all like a war-torn African failed state, and you shouldn't be saying that stuff, even if it's for rhetorical effect, because it is every bit as discrediting as 'Project Fear' turned out to be.

[Awol]

39 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

No, it wouldn't, and saying it would really suggests you haven't learned anything from winning in 2016. An independent Scotland would clearly have lots of difficult decisions to make, and it certainly would not be easy. There would probably be a period of austerity, but most of the financial gap will be plugged with higher borrowing, which lenders will be happy to give since Scotland is a stable, prosperous North Atlantic democracy that would pose no long-term credit risk.

It is obviously not going to look anything at all like a war-torn African failed state, and you shouldn't be saying that stuff, even if it's for rhetorical effect, because it is every bit as discrediting as 'Project Fear' turned out to be.

I disagree, there’s an Ulsterisation of politics going on up here and even if Indy did happen, that would worsen, not improve. 

As for borrowing to plug financial gaps, if you can tell me how iScotland gets over the currency hurdle them there’s a job for life for you with the SNP. How can it work? 

[chrisp65]

On the economics, what I like to do is have control of the bank account and spend my missus’ money how I see fit. What I then do, is borrow on the credit card, on her behalf, for the things I think she needs at the price I think is right. Buying stuff off my mates.

The nice thing then, is if she complains, I can point out she can’t leave because she doesn’t have her own bank account and I show her all the money she owes.

That tends to do the trick.

 

 

 

 

[Awol]

No one can explain how Scotland clears the currency hurdle. They’ll wriggle, deflect, attack but never ever answer the question. 

"The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is." 

[ml1dch]

59 minutes ago, Awol said:

No one can explain how Scotland clears the currency hurdle. They’ll wriggle, deflect, attack but never ever answer the question. 

Just like nobody in favour of leaving could coherently explain how to clear the Ireland hurdle in 2016, and still hasn't. 

They wriggle, deflect, attack and still don't answer the question.

Didn't stop people voting for it.

The currency issue is top of a long list of reasons why it would be a silly idea. I expect they'll just say whatever persuades people to vote for it, then cobble something together the moment noble theory becomes shambolic reality. Like the UK is trying to.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

As for borrowing to plug financial gaps, if you can tell me how iScotland gets over the currency hurdle them there’s a job for life for you with the SNP. How can it work? 

I don't understand what you're asking. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that independence is a good idea; I agree with you that it isn't. However, it is not *literally impossible* for a sovereign government to borrow. The problem is that they can't devalue their currency, and may have to pay higher interest rates. See eg:

'But the SNP’s plan to retain use of sterling in the early years of independence, rather than introduce a new currency, mean it would be unlikely to have access to the Bank of England’s financing facilities and would instead have to borrow from private investors.

And Prof Bell cautioned that an independent Scotland would likely have to pay higher interest rates and do more to demonstrate it could meet its obligations.

“It’s not obvious that as a new borrower you would get the terms and conditions that countries with a longer borrowing history are able to get,” said Prof Bell, adding that demonstrating fiscal sustainability would probably mean cuts to government spending.

John McLaren, an independent economist, said an independent Scotland would initially have to make up for about £11bn a year in fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK and could not assume that the current era of huge deficits and soaring state debt would persist indefinitely.

“It’s true that when everybody’s deficit is up to 15 to 20 per cent [of GDP] across the EU, then if Scotland’s is 22 per cent, it doesn’t look that bad . . . but the deficit will have to come down fairly quickly,” said Mr McLaren.'

from: https://www.ft.com/content/2f298c24-36e1-48c3-b401-0ac0066c18b4

1 hour ago, Awol said:

I disagree, there’s an Ulsterisation of politics going on up here and even if Indy did happen, that would worsen, not improve.

Northern Ireland has its problems, but it obviously isn't Somalia.

[chrisp65]

It’s an absolute mystery to me how Iceland and Malta and Slovenia and Estonia and Ireland are still clinging on financially.

I guess they must all have always had their own currency and never borrowed and never had to pay back debts incurred by others on their behalf to support generations of political philosophy that they didn’t get a say in.

To even try and use ‘you can’t afford to be free of us’ as an argument, well, it’s brilliant and I hope someone has the finances to stick it on the side of a bus. Preferably a bus with a big union flag on it, and a picture of a grinning scruffy haired Etonian scamp.

We’ve all been drilled on how to deal with the Establishment and what to think of experts and how we need happy fish and control. Westminster just has to un teach all that and reverse everything it told us was a benefit of Brexit, and it’ll be fine. I’d like Rees Mogg to be particularly vocal on how Westminster bails out Scotland. Gordon Brown too, and Blair. Get them all up to Aberdeen to explain to the Scots why they aren’t competent enough to be in charge of themselves.

Brexit was the start of a process and we’ve all been told we need to seize the opportunities it offers.