The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Follyfoot]

On 29/11/2020 at 19:09, ml1dch said:

Give it three election cycles and it probably will be.

If we've not declared war on France over mackerel quotas by then. 

They’ve had it coming for awhile now in all fairness. The tunnel was built for a reason

[Enda]

14 hours ago, Genie said:

France have chipped in to say they might veto a deal if they aren’t happy with it.

Probably putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5 but it makes me wonder if EU are starting to blink a bit?

Reading way too much into it pal.

Unless the terms of the deal have changed considerably (to include things not in the EU’s remit), then France doesn’t have a veto.

Barnier is a grown-up and knows it’s worth his time to wait in London in case something good comes of it. But he cannot accept anything that would threaten the integrity of the single market. There will be no deal unless HMG agrees to substantive EU-based competition law.

Any deal still needs to pass the EU Parliament, remember. Barnier is just the messenger.

[Genie]

12 minutes ago, Enda said:

Reading way too much into it pal.

Unless the terms of the deal have changed considerably (to include things not in the EU’s remit), then France doesn’t have a veto.

Barnier is a grown-up and knows it’s worth his time to wait in London in case something good comes of it. But he cannot accept anything that would threaten the integrity of the single market. There will be no deal unless HMG agrees to substantive EU-based competition law.

Any deal still needs to pass the EU Parliament, remember. Barnier is just the messenger.

Yeah, I’m sure you’re probably right.

But if I was interested in potentially buying a car, and the dealer kept coming to my house every day then I’d see it as a sign he wants to do a deal.

Then after he said on Friday he was cancelling his Saturday with his wife and kids to come to my house again I’d maybe even think he was desperate.

He’s only the mouth piece, but he’ll be in constant dialogue with the owner of the dealership so he only offers what will get approved. 

Maybe a deal won’t get done, but the body language seems to be a bit of desperation on the EU’s part here. 

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yeah, I’m sure you’re probably right.

But if I was interested in potentially buying a car, and the dealer kept coming to my house every day then I’d see it as a sign he wants to do a deal.

Then after he said on Friday he was cancelling his Saturday with his wife and kids to come to my house again I’d maybe even think he was desperate.

He’s only the mouth piece, but he’ll be in constant dialogue with the owner of the dealership so he only offers what will get approved. 

Maybe a deal won’t get done, but the body language seems to be a bit of desperation on the EU’s part here. 

This is a very bad analogy. The EU aren't selling anything.

[chrisp65]

16 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yeah, I’m sure you’re probably right.

But if I was interested in potentially buying a car, and the dealer kept coming to my house every day then I’d see it as a sign he wants to do a deal.

Then after he said on Friday he was cancelling his Saturday with his wife and kids to come to my house again I’d maybe even think he was desperate.

He’s only the mouth piece, but he’ll be in constant dialogue with the owner of the dealership so he only offers what will get approved. 

Maybe a deal won’t get done, but the body language seems to be a bit of desperation on the EU’s part here. 

This appears to be the thought process of people like Peter Bone MP.

But even he was visibly shitting himself last night on Newsnight that perhaps he’s spent 4 years utterly mis reading the situation. He got a few good digs in at everyone that was at fault. Apparently, the problems all lay with remoaners, with all of the EU, with the French specifically, with UK business for not being prepared and with earlier iterations of the tory government that didn’t lay down the law strongly enough with Johnny Foreigner.

Pretty much everyone except the thick, the chancers, the racists, the disaster capitalists, and the liars that wanted Brexit.

I got the impression he was having a bit of a Ceausescu moment.

 

 

[ml1dch]

41 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I got the impression he was having a bit of a Ceausescu moment.

All round to Bone's gaff on Christmas Day for his next one?

(if MI5 are reading this, I'm not actually advocating the overthrow, festive show-trial and summary execution of Peter Bone)

[snowychap]

12 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I'm not actually advocating the overthrow, festive show-trial and summary execution of Peter Bone

Of course you're not, Mrs Bone.

[Genie]

59 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

This appears to be the thought process of people like Peter Bone MP.

But even he was visibly shitting himself last night on Newsnight that perhaps he’s spent 4 years utterly mis reading the situation. He got a few good digs in at everyone that was at fault. Apparently, the problems all lay with remoaners, with all of the EU, with the French specifically, with UK business for not being prepared and with earlier iterations of the tory government that didn’t lay down the law strongly enough with Johnny Foreigner.

Pretty much everyone except the thick, the chancers, the racists, the disaster capitalists, and the liars that wanted Brexit.

I got the impression he was having a bit of a Ceausescu moment.

 

 

You’ve gone much deeper than me [kenneth.jpg] on Brexit, I agree with it all by the way.

I’m just trying to read this last few weeks. The EU repeatedly coming to us firstly, rather us going go to Brussels is telling. Then the EU extending this recent stay into the weekend.

It certainly shows they are willing, if not desperate to get an agreement.

Obviously that’s not to say either side will  back down on their musts though (or that this whole thing is anything other than a massive pile of turd).

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

The EU repeatedly coming to us firstly, rather us going go to Brussels is telling. Then the EU extending this recent stay into the weekend.

It certainly shows they are willing,

This is the point. They want a deal, it's in their interests as well as ours. BUT not at any price so they are prepared to go along with a certain amount of silly meaningless games because they are doing everything possible to not be painted "The Bad Guys." You want to talk in London? Ok, makes no difference to them, they'll still be making exactly the same points (over and over, no doubt). Can you imagine the fuss, if they'd said no to meeting in London?

UK: We insist in the talks being in London

EU: Yeah, whatevers

UK: We want you to make concessions on fishing rights

EU: Don't be silly

[Genie]

Do they really care about being labelled the bad guys? The UK voted to leave, I don’t think they have much to worry about on that front.

Default position is no-deal. If our guys were over in Brussels it would be because we were panicking/desperate etc. 
What’s done is done, I’m just clinging to the hope that something gets agreed that protects my job at a business that has said no deal will cost £1b a year in tariffs and potentially make the whole thing unviable. 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

Do they really care about being labelled the bad guys?

Yes because I think the ultimate long term hope is that we eventually some to our senses. The long game is the EU coming out with as little disdain as possible. If it's seen that the EU did us over as it were that would be worse in the long term PR game

[chrisp65]

15 minutes ago, Genie said:

You’ve gone much deeper than me [kenneth.jpg] on Brexit, I agree with it all by the way.

I’m just trying to read this last few weeks. The EU repeatedly coming to us firstly, rather us going go to Brussels is telling. Then the EU extending this recent stay into the weekend.

It certainly shows they are willing, if not desperate to get an agreement.

Obviously that’s not to say either side will  back down on their musts though (or that this whole thing is anything other than a massive pile of turd).

They are desperate for a deal. it’s because they are grown ups. They want the absolute best economic and political deal possible. They are happy to have the meetings here, because frankly, the exact location is irrelevant unless you think who won the World Cup in 1966 is important in these discussions. They’d meet in Dudley or Carlisle if it was that important to us. It kind of shows how easily connected our capital city is with all of Europe, at the moment.,

But they don’t want a deal that is an existential threat to them. It’s just so basic, why would they give us a deal that matches what members of the club get? Why the hell would anyone then be a member of the club? It’s that basic, and has been since the whole idea was just a pound s ign in Farage’s wet dream.

We cannot have everything that club members have, or the club will disband.

In your car dealer analogy, why on earth would they give us the same car as everyone else, but below the cost of producing that car? Surely everyone would then want this new low price and the dealer would go bust?

What I don’t understand, is why our side don’t understand that.

If this collapses it will cost Germany, France, Spain et al quite a lot. It’ll could cost us almost everything. 

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

If our guys were over in Brussels it would be because we were panicking/desperate etc. 

No, symbolism only really matters to Daily Mail readers. There is absolutely NOTHING to be read into this

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, Genie said:

Default position is no-deal. If our guys were over in Brussels it would be because we were panicking/desperate etc. 

No offence, but you are literally reading something into nothing. 

The talks were scheduled from the beginning to alternate between London and Brussels. They were in Brussels talking two weeks ago.

It was front page news when one of the EU team tested positive for Covid on November 19th. While they were talking in Brussels. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by ml1dch

[chrisp65]

Oh, and if you want to try and work out which side is shitting it, when was the last time fat lazy Johnson looked like he might have to work on a weekend?

I still hope we get the best possible deal, because if we don’t, my family will suffer. So there’s no glee from me that the tory party is packed with incompetent lazy liars and thieves.

Bastards the lot of them.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It’s just so basic, why would they give us a deal that matches what members of the club get? Why the hell would anyone then be a member of the club?

Yep, I agree. It’s never going happen (I didn’t suggest it would).

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Oh, and if you want to try and work out which side is shitting it, when was the last time fat lazy Johnson looked like he might have to work on a weekend?

There’s been quite a few press conferences and big meetings at weekends recently (irrelevant though), he is a big, fat lazy waste of space.

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I still hope we get the best possible deal, because if we don’t, my family will suffer.

Same here. I’m under no illusions that nothing will match what we had as an EU member. I’m hoping there is something that avoids the no-deal economic armageddon that is still lurking.

[Enda]

EU would like an agreement because it means we can trade freely with the UK and we like trade. You buy our software (or whatever), we buy your cars (or whatever), everyone’s happy. (The focus on trade deficits is massively over-blown IMHO. If Irish people and companies buy £100 worth of stuff from the UK, all voluntarily and to everyone’s benefit, then it doesn’t really matter a whole lot if UK people and companies buy £99 versus £101 of Irish goods and services. Caring about the £2 difference in deficit or surplus neglects the big picture of about £100 of trade everyone is happy with.)

But we won’t let you sell your cars freely into our market if you’re massively subsidizing them with state aid. That’s not fair on our companies nor in our long-term interest. So HMG need to accept the rules of the game, call it “the laws of the single market”, or they can do one.

It’s not really a negotiation. The pretend fight about fish (0.1% of GDP) is probably only so HMG can say “We won!”

[Enda]

Correction: the £2 difference between surplus or deficit neglects the big picture of £200 of trade, not £100. UK buys £100 of Guinness, Ireland buys £99 of Aston Villa kit, that’s £199 of trade. Selling one more Dean Saunders sticker that costs £2 (and thus turning the trade deficit into a trade surplus) is really small time.

[Genie]

16 minutes ago, Enda said:

The pretend fight about fish (0.1% of GDP) is probably only so HMG can say “We won!”

I find the fish thing quite bizarre, because in exchange for giving access to UK water we get access to EU water. It’s a pretty fair trade you’d have thought, and an easy sell to the people of the UK.

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, Enda said:

we won’t let you sell your cars freely into our market if you’re massively subsidizing them with state aid. That’s not fair on our companies nor in our long-term interest. So HMG need to accept the rules of the game, call it “the laws of the single market”, or they can do one.

It’s not really a negotiation. The pretend fight about fish (0.1% of GDP) is probably only so HMG can say “We won!”

Nah, I don't see it like that. There's more factors at play.

State Aid - the EU want the UK not to use state aid to out compete EU business. Fair enough. The EU accept EU nations can't do it either - them's the rules. But the EU want to be able to use EU funds to aid businesses. The UK is not happy with the double standards - so it's not just "the rules of the game" the EU are trying (and who can blame them) to rig the game.

The fishing thing - the continental nations have had, since the UK joined, a proper lopsided advantage - the UK gots to keep a small fraction of the fishing in UK waters - Spain, France etc get way more. So the UK wants to rectify that and move to doing what Norway does and negotiate annually on the next years "allowances/quotas". France etc. want to keep their big share. Small beer in the big scheme of things, but it's a kind of talismanic issue for all the fishing nations. THE UK keeping just 10% of UK rights is a really bad outcome, politically, for UK fishermen and for the public. It matters more because essentially EVERYTHING else the UK will get will be "worse" than what we had before. It's pretty much the only possible claim to an upside the tories could shout about [and even then, even with more fish, they'd get stuck in ports in queues and hit by tariff, so it'd be a hollow "win"]

France does have a veto - national parliaments have to approve any deal.

I've been feeling for a while that the Tories might be minded to think - [whatever] Deal is still punishing for the UK, not much better than no deal, so maybe No deal is a better choice, because they can blame the EU for the collapse, whereas a Deal - it'll be Johnson's Deal and he'll get the blame when people realise how much worse off they are.

The UK has been useless, untrustworthy, duplicitous, incompetent and deluded all along. The EU has been what it is - slow moving, rigid, stronger than the UK, willing to use that strength, able to use it and able to win the PR.

It's not a game, it is a real negotiation, in which the EU holds much the stronger hand, and always has. And it was strengthened massively when Tories and Labour voted to trigger A50 way before we know what we wanted out of what would happen next. It's our fault, but the Gov't will be thinking "if we can get the EU to look to the British public as the guilty ones, we may save some of our political bacon.