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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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Luxembourg PM now doing a press conference without Boris, as hes ran away because of protests outside

He's sticking the boot in

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40 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

My prediction is that Swinson will form a loose confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories, with the bargain being a referendum between Remain and No Deal. This would be very shit. 

My prediction is that they would not do that. Once bitten, twice shy - they were eaten alive and almsot destroyed last time.. And to be fair to the LDs, they've always, always been pro Europe, pro EU. The tories are not remotely compatible with that stance any more. Labour too is a Leave party (at the moment, and for the moment, despite the efforts of the actual members and so on).

Like you I can't see them doing a coalition with anyone, and I'm more sceptical that they'd co-operate formally with either the Toriest or with the Labours until Corbyn's (and any similar clown successors) are out the way.

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Labour are overwhelmingly a remain party. They just have a leader who isn’t prepared to commit to an institution he has always disliked. This doesn’t actually matter that much though. Corbyn has promised a referendum, with the option to remain on the ballot. Personalities are irrelevant. That chance to ditch. Brexit is the most important thing.

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1 hour ago, meregreen said:

The Lib Dem’s have about as much chance of winning an election as the Monster Raving Loony Party. Only Labour will stop Boris and his entitled Brexit mob. Even if you don’t like Corbyn, that is the reality.

On one hand yes, agreed.

On the other though, nailing their colours to the mast so categorically will boost their numbers, if everyone who doesn’t want brexit now allies themselves with the Lib Dem’s then who knows how it may turn out.

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12 minutes ago, andym said:

Luxembourg PM now doing a press conference without Boris, as hes ran away because of protests outside

He's sticking the boot in

Pathetic.

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1 minute ago, bannedfromHandV said:

On one hand yes, agreed.

On the other though, nailing their colours to the mast so categorically will boost their numbers, if everyone who doesn’t want brexit now allies themselves with the Lib Dem’s then who knows how it may turn out.

I have always been pro EU. But I’m also a Democrat. If the British people voted to leave, then only the British people should keep us in. I’m desperate for us to remain, but very uncomfortable with any politician removing the route of a vote to do it.

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5 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

On one hand yes, agreed.

On the other though, nailing their colours to the mast so categorically will boost their numbers, if everyone who doesn’t want brexit now allies themselves with the Lib Dem’s then who knows how it may turn out.

I don't want Brexit and certainly wouldn't vote Lib Dems.

I think the only sensible way is to negotiate the best deal we can and then have an in/out referendum. Sticking to the hardline 'we'll cancel it' approach just seems like a recipe for stirring up more trouble to me.

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6 minutes ago, meregreen said:

I have always been pro EU. But I’m also a Democrat. If the British people voted to leave, then only the British people should keep us in. I’m desperate for us to remain, but very uncomfortable with any politician removing the route of a vote to do it.

But if the LibDems say 'vote for us and we'll revoke', isn't that democratic?

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Spoiler

In fairness the Hulk has been susceptible to sound before now :ph34r:

 

Edited by Chindie
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32 minutes ago, bickster said:

Hadn't seen that, thanks.

it is however a load of crap, when push comes to shove after any election, if the libDems have the remotest sniff of power it will be Labour they have to support. They seriously cannot consider the Tories given the disparity between the two parties policies on you know, that major thing that overshadows everything.

the LibDems also said something similar before they went into coalition with the Tories iirc (about the Tories). With the LibDems theres a whole heap of difference between what they say now and what they'll do come any results following the next election

I agree with the bolded. As I mentioned above, they will have no real choice but to make a deal one way or the other. If neither main party can achieve a majority through either a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement, then there would have to be another election, and the iron logic of FPTP would suggest that voters from minor parties would abandon them in droves as they realise they are forced to choose (to be clear, I'm not saying this in hope, as this would benefit the Tories, as there are more CON-LIB marginals than LAB-LIB marginals). I don't think Swinson would want to do this, so she will make a deal one way or the other. However, I differ from you in thinking that on the balance of probabilities that would be with the Tories, as she could sell a No deal vs Remain referendum as a 'win' on the promise of the People's Vote campaign, even if it would be a terrible idea. I doubt Corbyn would resign for the sake of confidence and supply negotiations, not least because the Liberals might state that they wouldn't provide support to Labour with Corbyn as leader, and then ally with the Tories anyway. (I do think Corbyn may be under pressure to resign after an election, unless it sees an improvement in numbers of seats, but it'll be on his timetable). 

37 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

I think there'd be a great chance of remain winning that. As such I don't think your scenario would be that 'shit'. If the price to pay for remain is another Tory government I think I could just about stomach that.

The latest polling suggests otherwise. Buried at the bottom of this Indy article (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-government-national-unity-ken-clarke-jeremy-corbyn-a9105306.html) about some BMG Research polling is this gem:

'In a "no deal versus no Brexit" referendum, 51 per cent of those questioned said they would vote to remain in the EU and 49 per cent to leave without a deal, once those who did not know or would not vote were removed.' 

Yes, it's just one poll, but we should have learned by this point that there are no slam-dunk guaranteed referendum results, and it is too big a risk to give an enormous fresh democratic mandate to national self-harm. 

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12 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

But if the LibDems say 'vote for us and we'll revoke', isn't that democratic?

Yes. 

If we end up with a GE and it turns out to be: 

Brexit Party - WTO/No Deal straight out 

Tory Party - Same or possibly some new Unicorn deal 

Lib Dem - Revoke and Remain 

Labour: All of the above depending on what day you ask them. 

All but Labour would be pretty clear then, and if the Lib Dem’s were to win and revoke, that’s democratically fair game imo. 

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Isn't Labour's position to negotiate a new deal then hold a new referendum for in/out?

Pretty sure the Lib Dems have been crowing for a 2nd referendum for most of the last couple of years. They must have recently realised that as this is now Labour policy too they need to further differentiate themselves.

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Just now, wazzap24 said:

Labour: All of the above depending on what day you ask them. 

That isn't a reasonable characterisation of Labour policy. I realise we're now two or more years into bad jokes about unicorns and fairies, but it's actually important to be clear about this now that there's an election coming up. 

Labour's plan is to negotiate with the EU to get a deal that meets their six tests, probably through changes to the Future Relationship, and then put that deal to a confirmatory referendum versus Remain. That's the policy. You're free to argue with it or criticise it or whatever else, but they certainly don't support 'all of the above'. 

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

That isn't a reasonable characterisation of Labour policy. I realise we're now two or more years into bad jokes about unicorns and fairies, but it's actually important to be clear about this now that there's an election coming up. 

Labour's plan is to negotiate with the EU to get a deal that meets their six tests, probably through changes to the Future Relationship, and then put that deal to a confirmatory referendum versus Remain. That's the policy. You're free to argue with it or criticise it or whatever else, but they certainly don't support 'all of the above'. 

I also a find the narrative of "lolz, they'll try and renegotiate and then might campaign for or against it, what a bunch of muppets" is a bit churlish given that's precisely what a large number of the Conservative Party did in the 2016 referendum.

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3 minutes ago, wazzap24 said:

Yes. 

If we end up with a GE and it turns out to be: 

Brexit Party - WTO/No Deal straight out 

Tory Party - Same or possibly some new Unicorn deal 

Lib Dem - Revoke and Remain 

Labour: All of the above depending on what day you ask them. 

All but Labour would be pretty clear then, and if the Lib Dem’s were to win and revoke, that’s democratically fair game imo. 

This only really works if they secure a majority unfortunately.

What do Lib Dem votes mean when they're in a coalition with the Tories? Their Brexit views are opposed, but they'd need to work together to form a government, or we go back to the polls. It's unlikely the Tories would be forced to accept a complete about face in flagship policy, and the Lib Dems would be the ones to shift the most - in the best case scenario you get a second referendum, perhaps. The worst, they draw a line under no deal but sign up for anything else.

Given it's pretty likely we're heading for a hung parliament again, and the Lib Dems will probably have the deciding vote in forming a government (and historically you'd back it being with the Tories as the largest party, because this country is **** stupid/rich/both), unless the Lib Dems have a historically huge swing, they're going to need to compromise, in which case all those 'Revoke' votes are, well... meaningless.

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I’m sure nobody over in that Europe will have spotted this, so please keep it on the quiet.

If Labour’s policy is to negotiate a version of leave, and then either campaign for or against depending on how good a deal it is.... doesn’t that encourage the EU to stubbornly give us the shittest deal possible?

There is, unfortunately, a sort of logic to the leaving regardless side of the argument. Albeit the stupid self imposed deadline is stupid.

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1 minute ago, Chindie said:

This only really works if they secure a majority unfortunately.

I know, I was just backing up @StefanAVFC point that if they did win (a majority), it would be perfectly democratic for them to revoke and remain, as that is what they would have campaigned on and people would have voted for them knowing that is what they plan to do. 

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