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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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37 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

I mentioned it a while back, there is too much focus really on the total number of votes & 52/48 split. Now sure it is the total figure but it doesn't really tell the whole story.

There is more info & charts from others replying to you but there were 399 "counting areas" for the referendum. This means there is some crossover with multiple constituencies in some areas. Some constituencies revealed their totals some didn't and there has been an awful lot of work done in determining the likely numbers for the ones that didn't.

off the 399 counting areas 270 were leave, 129 remain (Pretty much he whole of scotland voted remain, this accounted for 30 or so of the remain areas)

Translated into constituencies it worked out at Leave 406 - Remain 242 allowing for a small margin of error. This means that Over 62% of constituencies voted leave.

Looking at labour alone 148 of their 232 constituencies voted leave

If mps were voting as per the wishes of their constituents we would/should have left months ago and there shouldn't really have been anything anyone could have done about it as you would need a swing of 84 mps deciding to innore the result and go against their constituents to even tie any vote. Having said that there are an awful lot more than that completely ignoring the result now and doing whatever they think is right for  ̶t̶h̶e̶m̶s̶e̶l̶v̶e̶s̶  the country

fHIjsuK.jpg

 

Big heavily populated cities can also skew the overall totals slightly, or at least the perception of them. Everyone seems to agree that London is fairly remain centric but there were also 1.51 million leave votes in the london area alone. The whole of Scotland may have voted remain but they managed this with only 1.66 million remain votes.

Break things down to geographical regions of the UK and you get :

East - Leave

East Midlands - Leave

London - Remain

North East - Leave

North West - Leave

Northern ireland - Remain

Scotland - Remain

South East - Leave

South West - Leave

Wales - Leave

West Midlands - Leave

Yorkshire & The Humber - Leave

So England and Wales voted leave.  The three others countries voted remain.

Interesting. 

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@LakotaDakota Hypothetically if a constituency voted Leave, but there was proof it would now support Remain would an MP then be OK to support remain?

The real frustration with me in these discussions is it assumes no one has any nuance ie leave = leave whatever the cost (woooooo no deal) and remain = trying to frustrate the will of the people fif they don't support No Deal.

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43 minutes ago, Sam-AVFC said:

@LakotaDakota Hypothetically if a constituency voted Leave, but there was proof it would now support Remain would an MP then be OK to support remain?

The real frustration with me in these discussions is it assumes no one has any nuance ie leave = leave whatever the cost (woooooo no deal) and remain = trying to frustrate the will of the people fif they don't support No Deal.

I don't really see a massive problem with that other than there is no real way to know this for sure is there. A random poll of a few thousand people isn't enough. I guess we may find out at least some way if there is an election in the next couple of months as lets be honest that will basically just be more of a second referendum than anything else. There are an awful lot of labour strongholds that voted to leave that would also probably never ever vote conservative but i'm guessing a fair few of them may well vote for Farage and some of the leave/remain splits in these reions were amogst the highest in the country in favour of leave so who knows.

I do however think that should an actual second referendum happen it should be counted on a constituency basis rather than being split into 399 counting areas. It wouldn't have any impact on the overall totals or probably even the opinions of the elected mp's when it comes to voting but at least the mp's would be able to see exactly how their constituents voted this way.

I said a few pages back i don't think an election will actually solve anything. I can see us ending up with 4 parties (Con/Lab/Lib/Brx) all having somewhere around 20% of the seats which will just make things even worse

Edited by LakotaDakota

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14 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

I said a few pages back i don't think an election will actually solve anything. I can see us ending up with 4 parties (Con/Lab/Lib/Brx) all having somewhere around 20% of the seats which will just make things even worse

How terribly European of us :)

 

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3 hours ago, Davkaus said:

I'm surprised Jo Johnson seems to be getting a collective pat on the back.

He was put in an awkward position of the country vs his brother, and he choose to abandon his role rather than grow a pair and oppose his brother. He's stuck the knife in as a parting shot, but it seems like absolute cowardice to resign rather than oppose. 

Wouldn't have caught a Miliband chickening out like that 😀

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24 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

.

Agree with most of what you've said there.

I think an election would come down to the finest of margins with the split votes, although if Conservatives and BP coordinated candidates they could potentially have an absolute whitewash assuming this wasn;t an obvious strategy and didn't drive away all their 'moderates'.

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The Brexit party would win any Election, surely that's clear ........the Tories can't pull Brexit off and the majority or the electorate want it. Labour doesn't stand for anything , leave or remain,  they will get destroyed.

That leaves Farage and the Brexit party the clear winner in 52% of the country and people I speak to want it so much they would elect them in despite him being ...a moron 

What it needs is labour to get rid of Corbyn and get someone in charge who is clear with what they want. For me staying in the EU and stopping immigration causing damage to our social welfare system and the NHS , as the EU allows.

But that takes bollox and none of our leaders have em .

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9 minutes ago, tinker said:

The Brexit party would win any Election, surely that's clear ........the Tories can't pull Brexit off and the majority or the electorate want it. Labour doesn't stand for anything , leave or remain,  they will get destroyed.

That leaves Farage and the Brexit party the clear winner in 52% of the country and people I speak to want it so much they would elect them in despite him being ...a moron 

What it needs is labour to get rid of Corbyn and get someone in charge who is clear with what they want. For me staying in the EU and stopping immigration causing damage to our social welfare system and the NHS , as the EU allows.

But that takes bollox and none of our leaders have em .

Why do you think immigrants are "causing damage to our social welfare system and NHS"?

Last time I checked there were a lot of EU and non-EU nationals working in the NHS and in social care. 

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EU immigrants put more money into our country than they take out in benefits. Indeed very few EU nationals even claim benefits. Benefit levels in most other EU countries are set at much higher levels than ours anyway. Just more prejudiced bullshit from Farage and his cronies.

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50 minutes ago, tinker said:

The Brexit party would win any Election, surely that's clear

The second coming of Christ is more likely

 

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36 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

If someone from the EU uses the NHS the cost is charged back to their home country's government, exactly the same as if you used a hospital in Spain with your EHIC (formerly E111) card.

It can reclaim the charges but the stats show that they don’t. And probably rightly so, do we really want hospitals asking people to show ID before receiving treatment?

36 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

In terms of immigration, you've been misinformed there too. EU rules say that a country has the right to remove any immigrant who, after 3 months, cannot financially support themselves or hasn't found paid work.  Our government chooses not to adopt those measures as unlike, say, Germany, they don't keep track of where people are living and what they're doing.

Again you are right that the UK could adopt methods of tracking where people are and what they are doing, but they are not able to single out EU citizens so it would have to apply to everyone. Remember the Blair government trying to introduce ID cards? How did that work out?

40 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

SO, the NHS thing is a non-point, and the immigration thing can be solved without leaving the EU.

Correct again that we could solve the issues as they stand but a non-point seems a little dismissive. It becomes a non-point if we want to become a nation of card carriers, under government surveillance that is refusing medical treatment to those without orderly paperwork and rounding up and deporting the unemployed. 

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Just now, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Again you are right that the UK could adopt methods of tracking where people are and what they are doing, but they are not able to single out EU citizens so it would have to apply to everyone. Remember the Blair government trying to introduce ID cards? How did that work out?

I'm sorry but this isn't correct. In Germany you have to register at the local town hall even if you are only staying for 5 months as my daughter had to last year when she was studying at Hannover University. There is absolutely nothing stopping us adopting a similar approach

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9 minutes ago, meregreen said:

EU immigrants put more money into our country than they take out in benefits. Indeed very few EU nationals even claim benefits. Benefit levels in most other EU countries are set at much higher levels than ours anyway. Just more prejudiced bullshit from Farage and his cronies.

That's true. But if you're in somewhere that recieves a lot of, say, seasonal or all year round , low paid EU workers, then unless the extra money the Nation recieves from those EU workers is directed back to that area, not, say London Cross-rail, then the benefit isn't seen, but the pressures on the NHS, school places, housing etc in that area are felt, with no action or money spent to improve life for the people (immigrants and locals) there. That's been a big failing.

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9 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm sorry but this isn't correct. In Germany you have to register at the local town hall even if you are only staying for 5 months as my daughter had to last year when she was studying at Hannover University. There is absolutely nothing stopping us adopting a similar approach

The point being that every German also has to register their address with the government. I agree there is nothing stopping us doing it, but history shows that Britain holds civil liberties pretty high and if thought through, isn’t (for many) a desirable solution. 

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21 minutes ago, bickster said:

The second coming of Christ is more likely

 

Who will then and what's the logic behind your choice ?

Edited by tinker

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1 hour ago, desensitized43 said:

Why do you think immigrants are "causing damage to our social welfare system and NHS"?

Last time I checked there were a lot of EU and non-EU nationals working in the NHS and in social care. 

I didn't say EU immigration was causing damage , I said immigration was and that's the general opinion of the population whether that's based on fact or right wing fiction.

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