bickster Posted August 8, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 8, 2019 7 hours ago, snowychap said: 'No deal' doesn't have to 'get through Parliament'. 'No deal' is the default. Parliament has to act to prevent 'no deal'. Amazing how many people still don't understand this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 8, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 8, 2019 Quote Canada’s Brexit talks with the U.K.: There are none Sometimes it’s harder to spot what doesn’t happen than what does. It was a few hours after Chrystia Freeland’s news conference with Dominic Raab before I realized what she hadn’t said. Freeland is Canada’s minister of global affairs. Raab is Britain’s foreign secretary. They’re roughly the same job. Raab is on what The Guardian calls “a symbolically important trip to North America,” which peaks with important Washington meetings Wednesday. Mexico after that. Of course it’s symbolically important because Raab is the foreign secretary in a government that is determined to exit the European Union in 85 days. ... she is ever a congenial host. There was so much to talk about, she said. “We discussed our shared concern over the situation in Hong Kong, the crisis in Venezuela, the genocide of the Rohingya and Russia’s illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea,” she said. “I also thanked Dominic for the U.K.’s strong support of the two Canadian citizens arbitrarily detained in China.” She thanked Raab because his predecessor had played host to a media freedom conference in London in June. The next one will be in Canada next year. And she said nice things about Canada-U.K. relations. “We are cousins, we’re family. I think that connection is based of course on our strong economic ties, on our military alliance, but above all on our shared values. Today was a great opportunity to discuss those.” ... What struck me later was that Freeland had not said a word about Canada-U.K. relations after Brexit, as such. Nothing. I checked this hunch with her office, and they were quick to confirm and to send the transcript from which I’ve been quoting. Her silence, abetted by Canadian reporters who needed fresh clips on top-line stories so they had no time to ask about Freeland’s guest, permitted her to decorously avoid saying out loud what Raab knows well: That formal talks between Canadian and British officials over a post-Brexit trading arrangement ground to a halt weeks ago. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, Britain will offer radically reduced tariffs to all comers. Canadian officials, reasonably, decided there’s no need to offer concessions in return for what would be essentially automatic access to the U.K. market. Nor did she have to add that last year, Canada was the 17th global destination for U.K. exports; that four of the top five destinations, and seven of the top 10, are EU member states; that exports to those EU destinations total nearly $180 billion, while exports to Canada stand at $7.3 billion; and that increased market access for Canada would hardly compensate for chaotic reductions in access to the far vaster, nearer European market. Macleans.ca There's more on the link including some excellent pointing out what an empty windbag Raab is but the essential bit is there in bold. Not that people weren't saying this as far back as pre-referendum times. If only things got reported like this in the UK eh? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted August 8, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted August 8, 2019 10 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: So the EU move? It shows they are weak and we are strong. We changed our minds over and over again, and they buckled. It won't happen. If you’re saying what I wrote won’t happen then I beg to differ. Chances are I’ll be wrong, because my run of luck in working out what will happen can’t last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted August 8, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) If we crash out and there's food and medical shortages and people start to suffer then shit will really hit the fan for Boris and the leave supporters. I could see an emergency government being formed and the EU letting us back in under emergency measures . I believe Boris is the idiot that most of us see and its down to him to prove it and I don't think he will fail in that respect. It's just the measures he will use to hold on to power that worries me, for all his bafoonerey I think he's a very dangerous man . Edited August 8, 2019 by tinker I'm an idiot as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 50 minutes ago, tinker said: If we crash out and there's food and medical shortages and people start to suffer then shit will really hit the fan for Boris and the leave supporters. I could see an emergency government being formed and the EU letting us back in under emergency measures . I believe Boris is the idiot that most of us see and its down to him to proof it and I don't think he will fail in that respect. It's just the measures he will use to hold on to power that worries me, for all his bafoonerey I think he's a very dangerous man . No doubt they'll beg, borrow and steal to keep the effects of their mismanagement at bay long enough to have the election where they'll say "look, it was all a con, everythings fine". Win that election and you're stuck with the privileged **** for another 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 8, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 8, 2019 More Diesel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, bickster said: More Diesel How will the Rees-Moggs get their caviar!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 8, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, desensitized43 said: How will the Rees-Moggs get their caviar!?! I'm sure some bloke called Vlad will send it in the post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted August 8, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, desensitized43 said: How will the Rees-Moggs get their caviar!?! Private jet. Isn't that how everyone gets their food? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 18 hours ago, snowychap said: 'No deal' doesn't have to 'get through Parliament'. 'No deal' is the default. Parliament has to act to prevent 'no deal'. Whilst that is true, there are ways in which it can at least be attempted to be blocked by MP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 5 hours ago, tinker said: If we crash out and there's food and medical shortages and people start to suffer then shit will really hit the fan for Boris and the leave supporters. Brexiteers will say how it is not connected to Brexit and would have happened anyway. At least they are on the front foot, everything that is bad that will happen will get blamed on Brexit and they'll be ready to muddy the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, Genie said: Whilst that is true, there are ways in which it can at least be attempted to be blocked by MP's. Of course there are things that MPs and others can try to do to stop a 'no deal' exit - we've been discussing that over the past dozen pages or more. The point is that they (and any others who might want to intervene) will have to act. It isn't the case that a 'no deal' exit has to go through Parliament and thus MPs can just say no and it's off. MPs would have to use one of the avenues open to them to try and prevent it from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 minute ago, snowychap said: Of course there are things that MPs and others can try to do to stop a 'no deal' exit - we've been discussing that over the past dozen pages or more. The point is that they (and any others who might want to intervene) will have to act. It isn't the case that a 'no deal' exit has to go through Parliament and thus MPs can just say no and it's off. MPs would have to use one of the avenues open to them to try and prevent it from happening. So... it would still need to get past the MP's in parliament without intervention or blocking then which I think is what I was saying. Even if he backs it to the hilt, it might not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, Genie said: So... it would still need to get past the MP's in parliament without intervention or blocking then which I think is what I was saying. No. 'It' does not need to get past anyone. The government does not have to ask anyone in Parliament to approve leaving on Oct 31st without 'a deal'. This is the current default. People may act - MPs, private individuals, the courts, the UK government, the EU - and that may change what does happen but currently, as it stands now, given that no withdrawal agreement has been agreed and that we leave the EU by automatic operation of the law on October 31st, the default position is that we would leave on October 31st 'without a deal'. The way in which you worded it earlier and seem to have done here again is that you appear to suggest that something has to 'get past the MPs in Parliament' in order for us to leave on Oct 31st 'without a deal'. It doesn't. It has already gone through Parliament that we leave on October 31st. Quote Even if he backs it to the hilt, it might not happen. That's a very different thing. If people take steps to try and stop it from happening then Johnson may not be able to force it to happen (if he does indeed want to do that) but the correct political and legal steps would need to be taken. If they are not taken then Johnson doesn't have to do a thing for it (leaving on 31st October without a withdrawal agreement) to occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) Today's blog from Mark Elliott: Quote Can Parliament prevent a no-deal Brexit? Boris Johnson, the UK’s new Prime Minister, says that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October “do or die”. With negotiations between the UK and the EU apparently at an impasse, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit now appears to be somewhat greater than the “million-to-one against” chance to which Johnson referred in late June. Since there is a clear majority in Parliament against a no-deal Brexit, the question arises whether it can prevent such an outcome. The further question arises — given recent pronouncements by Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings — whether the Government could obstruct Parliament if it were to seek to stop the UK from exiting the EU without a withdrawal agreement. Against this background, there are doubtless many scenarios that may need to be contemplated over the coming weeks. In this post, I consider three possible sets of circumstances and examine the legal implications of each. ... As the autumn unfolds, and as the cliff-edge beckons, we will see whether the majority of parliamentarians who are opposed to a no-deal Brexit can recover the situation. As I have sought to show in this post, Parliament does have options open to it. But those options are limited in legal terms — and decidedly so in political terms. Edited August 8, 2019 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 6 hours ago, tinker said: If we crash out and there's food and medical shortages and people start to suffer then shit will really hit the fan for Boris and the leave supporters. I could see an emergency government being formed and the EU letting us back in under emergency measures . I believe Boris is the idiot that most of us see and its down to him to prove it and I don't think he will fail in that respect. It's just the measures he will use to hold on to power that worries me, for all his bafoonerey I think he's a very dangerous man . Yep, same thing happened to me yesterday as it is too you, someone picked me up on it and make no mistake. You are just not been optimistic enough. Brexit will be like looking behind the Wizard's curtain remember, who knows what's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Genie said: So... it would still need to get past the MP's in parliament without intervention or blocking then which I think is what I was saying. Well, if that's what you were saying then what is the procedure or mechanism that they will use? What exactly are they voting on that can get a majority of MPs backing it? If that happens, what is their enforcement mechanism to make sure that the Government complies before 31st October? It's all well and good saying that Parliament will stop it. If you're confident of that, you kind of need to go a bit further and show your working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Well, if that's what you were saying then what is the procedure or mechanism that they will use? What exactly are they voting on that can get a majority of MPs backing it? If that happens, what is their enforcement mechanism to make sure that the Government complies before 31st October? It's all well and good saying that Parliament will stop it. If you're confident of that, you kind of need to go a bit further and show your working. I think you're arguing for the sake of arguing. Snowy agreed with my statement that just because Boris wants it and it's the default position, it might get shut down or blocked causing another potential deferal which was my initial prediction. 1 hour ago, snowychap said: Of course there are things that MPs and others can try to do to stop a 'no deal' exit - we've been discussing that over the past dozen pages or more. I dont know what will happen, same as everyone else. I just have a feeling that even though BJ is talking very strongly about it happening do or die, I have a feeling the stalemate will continue one way or another and we'll not get out on 31/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Genie said: I think you're arguing for the sake of arguing. Snowy agreed with my statement that just because Boris wants it and it's the default position, it might get shut down or blocked causing another potential deferal which was my initial prediction. Not at all. I'm just curious what gives you the confidence. As I see it, you think it will happen that way either because (a) you've gamed it out, thinking about how either side would react to their others plan and the amount of support either side can count on for the degrees of what they can hope to achieve. Or, you think it'll happen that way just because (b) it's what we're used to so it'll probably just carry on happening forever. From what I can tell, there are about two strong-ish factions who know what they want, and about two dozen different factions who are in play. And they might favour this, they might favour that, but it will depend on what everyone else does. Ultimately, I'm arguing because I'd like to share your confidence. So I'm keen to continue hoping that there's something in scenario (a) rather than scenario (b). Edited August 8, 2019 by ml1dch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted August 9, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted August 9, 2019 One of the frustrating things is that back in March, one of the votes was to force the government to go back to parliament before no deal runs out, yet they couldn’t agree on that either. They literally voted against themselves having control of the process. Sadly one of the massive reasons we are in such dire straits is the incompetency of the current politicians. Are these genuinely some of the worst politicians we have ever had, or have my eyes got more open with age? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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