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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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3 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

I'll wager there's a Patrick Minford that'll prove her wrong.

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8 hours ago, Chindie said:

I'll wager there's a Patrick Minford that'll prove her wrong.

Shudder to think that a Professor of Applied Economics might know more on a subject than a journalist. I think we've all had enough of these bloody experts thank you very much. 😉

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51 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Shudder to think that a Professor of Applied Economics might know more on a subject than a journalist. I think we've all had enough of these bloody experts thank you very much. 😉

Can you point to a time when this particular charlatan was ever right?

The only reason he gets airtime is because Thatcher liked his poll tax idea, that went well.

In Academic Economics circles he's considered a crackpot, he thinks Brexit will improve the UK's GDP by 6.8%, he's absolutely that mental. He's pretty much out on a limb amongst his peers.

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1 hour ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Shudder to think that a Professor of Applied Economics might know more on a subject than a journalist. I think we've all had enough of these bloody experts thank you very much. 😉

Even he has said that brexit will “mostly eliminate” manufacturing, including the car industry.  Similar for farming.  It’s just that he thinks that’s a good thing.

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Come the glorious day, Minford would be one of the first swinging from a lamp post, after the umbrella manufacturers and Pull McCarthorse obviously but pretty much straight after them

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15 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

I just found the use of profitability funny when used in conjunction with Vauxhall. Of course their position is perfectly fair, IF Brexit leads to a RETURN to unprofitably (although their only profitable year in the last 20 came post Brexit decision)  a company is more than entitled to try to do something about it. Maybe somebody should ask what they intend to do if the imminent post no-deal collapse of the pound leads to a massive reduction in production costs for the UK plants compared to those in Europe, what are they going to do then? 

I believe the profitability comment was specifically about the Astra model which is the plant they're looking to close/move, not about the company as a whole

(I have no idea about the profitability of the Astra, that's just how I read it)

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9 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Shudder to think that a Professor of Applied Economics might know more on a subject than a journalist. I think we've all had enough of these bloody experts thank you very much. 😉

I'm an economics professor.

Minford is the Aly Cissokho of the profession. Managed to graft his way to Champions League experience, but look at at him in detail and you see his work is absolutely dreadful.

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I had some prat tell me the other day that the fall in the pound was down to Johnny Foreigner and the EU punishing us and then went on to say they would soon come crying though when we weren't over there spending our holiday money. The mind boggles that imbeciles like that got to vote in a referendum.

Edited by markavfc40
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On 29/07/2019 at 20:57, blandy said:

It can't. If the pound loses value against other currencies, any imported part will cost more pounds, increasing cost. Any UK made part will remain at the same price (in pounds) thus being neutral on cost. If the pound collapses, then production costs have to rise.

However completed car price in (say) Euros or Dollars will decrease, because EU nations or USA etc, will get more pounds for their dollar or Euro - so it will be cheaper for them to import UK produce....unless there are Tariffs. There are tariffs. The WTO rules require them. So the decrease in price of a Vauxhall will increase as a consequence, cancelling out any price reduction due to current exchange rates.

Net result No Deal Brexit is bad for UK producers. People lose jobs, businesses move abroad. More unemployed, more burden o the Gov't finances. Reduced income for the Gov't from business taxes. Weak pound means increased cost for imported goods. Tariffs on imported good increases prices. So unemployed and poor people are hit again, in the pocket. Inflation, job losses, businesses struggling or leaving the UK. All bad.

I don't want to get all Orville and Keith Harris on you but you started your post with 'It can't', it can. For a European company using the UK as a manufacturing base, if the cost of imported materials is less than other costs, then a fall in the pound (which you have hinted at in your second paragraph) has the potential to lower your overall production costs (in Euro). Therefore, the question becomes, do those cost reductions outweigh the cost of any tariffs imposed? If they did, would a decision to relocate production to Europe be an economic one?

One other pedant point from your post, is the statement that WTO rules require tariffs, a 'fact' doubled down on in listing them as a reason for increased food prices. The WTO does not 'require' tariffs, only the even application of tariffs, should a member choose to impose them.

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One thing I do know is that it’s having a big impact on the building trade. We’ve been very slow all year. Usually from June up until December we are snowed under. Had to lay people off this summer. Once we know what’s going on it should pick up. 

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2 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

I don't want to get all Orville and Keith Harris on you but you started your post with 'It can't', it can. For a European company using the UK as a manufacturing base, if the cost of imported materials is less than other costs, then a fall in the pound (which you have hinted at in your second paragraph) has the potential to lower your overall production costs (in Euro). Therefore, the question becomes, do those cost reductions outweigh the cost of any tariffs imposed? If they did, would a decision to relocate production to Europe be an economic one?

One other pedant point from your post, is the statement that WTO rules require tariffs, a 'fact' doubled down on in listing them as a reason for increased food prices. The WTO does not 'require' tariffs, only the even application of tariffs, should a member choose to impose them.

We’re saying the same thing.  The production cost in pounds rises. The cost in Euros falls. The WTO tariff rate on cars is 10%. The EU, in a no deal Brexit could not treat UK car imports differently to those from other nations they have no deal with. Same applies across the world.

so a big fall in the pound v other currencies has to make cars built in the UK more costly to build (in pound, the UK currency). Under no deal WTO scenario, even with other nations and trading areas imposing tariffs, the selling price abroad (but not in the UK) could fall. So we Brits get more expensive cars, the rest of the world gets, potentially, cheaper ones. The cars we make to sell abroad, will, of course have to meet all the rules and standards the EU etc imposes. Take back control!

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2 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

The WTO does not 'require' tariffs, only the even application of tariffs, should a member choose to impose them

Yay lets get flooded with cheap goods from South East Asia and beyond. That is exactly the effect of no tariffs, we become a dumping ground for shite from all over the world

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27 minutes ago, bickster said:

Yay lets get flooded with cheap goods from South East Asia and beyond. That is exactly the effect of no tariffs, we become a dumping ground for shite from all over the world

From @blandy just above above;

Quote

The cars we make to sell abroad, will, of course have to meet all the rules and standards the EU etc imposes. 

The same applies, of course, to the UK. WTO determines the way that tariffs are applied. Regulatory and consumer law, providing it is not descriminatary, is purely a matter for the UK. So unless, in the unlikely event, that the government decides to scrap all tariffs and all regulation there is absolutely no reason for the UK to become a 'dumping ground'. Of course there may be another reason why you might not want products coming from the Far East that met the same regulatory standards as those coming from the EU?

Edited by WhatAboutTheFinish
oops, typo!

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5 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

So unless, in the unlikely event, that the government decides to scrap all tariffs and all regulation there is absolutely no reason for the UK to become a 'dumping ground'. 

The infrastructure doesn't exist to police greater tariff collection. Or enforcing increased regulatory checks.

Right now, the law doesn't even exist to put in place the means to police it. The Trade Bill 2017-19 is still stuck in the Lords because the Government is terrified of bringing any legislation to a vote.

Edited by ml1dch
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Suppressing the value of the pound, devalues the real worth of people’s wages in real terms in the UK. Could be seen by some in the Tory Party as a back door way of achieving their wet dream of a low wage economy. Just those pesky regulations and workers rights to remove then.

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9 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Right now, the law doesn't even exist to put in place the means to police it. The Trade Bill 2017-19 is still stuck in the Lords because the Government is terrified of bringing any legislation to a vote.

Well quite. And just as well because if we we were to put those regulatory protections into law we wouldn't be able to hear JC shouting his beloved 'Bargain Basement Economy' at the dispatch box another 274 times. 

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