bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not trying to be rude, but we don't need to rely on vague guesses and intuitions here; 334 MP's - an absolute majority - voted against a second referendum last week. Some of them have to be persuaded to change their vote this week, or the Kyle-Wilson amendment fails. Here are some tweets from the Labour 'no' votes in that division: I'm struggling to see the relevance of your words to mine. As far as I can see you've told me exactly what I said in relation to a few Labour MPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ml1dch said: That's not the same as the vast majority wanting to remain now. I'm not sure we'll know the truth of that for many years in some cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, bickster said: I'm struggling to see the relevance of your words to mine. As far as I can see you've told me exactly what I said in relation to a few Labour MPs Did you bother to read the rest of the post? Focus on the last line in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, HanoiVillan said: Did you bother to read the rest of the post? Focus on the last line in particular. Yep, read it all three times, you appear to be answering someone else's point, certainly nothing to do with what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm inclined to agree with HanoiVillan on this. The vast majority voted to remain. That's not the same as the vast majority wanting to remain now. I'd say there is one thing that you can say there is a majority for - nodding along with the party lines. That's where the original remain majority came from, and why it doesn't exist anymore. This is correct. More broadly, I don't see the interest in the 'what's in people's hearts' stuff when it comes to MP's views on Brexit. @bickster claims that 'the vast majority of MP's want to remain'; they clearly don't vote as such, so frankly who cares? Maybe they keep voting in ways that make sure we leave the EU because they want to, or maybe it's out of a sense of duty, but it makes absolutely no difference to anything so why bother thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 17, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: More broadly, I don't see the interest in the 'what's in people's hearts' stuff when it comes to MP's views on Brexit. @bickster claims that 'the vast majority of MP's want to remain'; they clearly don't vote as such, so frankly who cares? I get where you're coming from. I suspect a lot of them, the lobby fodder are just keeping their heads down, voting with whatever their leader says, to keep their local associations happy, to not get deselected. They're not courageous enough to actually do anything "disloyal", even though large numbers of them actually think and believe what's happening is both bad and a nightmare. Every piece of information available to them, and they should damn well read it, as it's their job to make informed decisions, says Leave = worse than now. Us lot, or maybe not so much on here, but the public mostly are "just get on with it" because they have neither the time nor perhaps the easy access to the information that the MPs have. MP short terms will hit them way harder than any disgust at not voting "will of the people" when it turns out the lies about what they'd get turn out to be harm gets done to them, in reality. The tories are goosed, whatever happens. Labour could save itself, but is unwilling to do that. Corbyn is part of that, a major part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 @bickster - I am answering two points that you made. 1) This morning, you wrote: 'In other related news, Corbyn says if there is a 2nd referendum then he may vote leave dependant on the WA (he's speaking personally) so can we put that “he's changed” nonsense to bed now, thanks as he's not considering the other option, you know the one that really protects jobs and services' I explained why Corbyn cannot make the vote the Continuity Remain campaign, and so we cannot draw any inferences about whether or not he's planning to vote one way or the other in a hypothetical second referendum. 2) Later, you wrote: 'I take issue with this bit, the vast majority of MPs want to remain, it's just that there's rather a lot of Tories who would rather not be seen to be helping us remain, respecting the referendum and all that guff' I am arguing that it is not true that 'the vast majority of MPs want to remain'. It's not even true that all Labour MPs - who are a minority in Parliament - want to Remain, and it certainly isn't true of Conservatives (of whom at least half would need to be in favour of remaining for your assertion that 'the vast majority of MPs want to remain' to be true). I also explained why this fact impacts on how the Labour frontbench are talking about the Kyle-Wilson amendment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: or maybe it's out of a sense of duty, MPs in a Party? you can't be serious My original post was talking mainly about Tories, all you've done ever since is talk about Labour & Corbyn I was more alluding to how the Conservative Party on a local level is run by a small number of small-minded idiots, see the Boles affair for a current example. And that's why they keep toeing the party line, not some sense of duty. Which is exactly as I said originally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, blandy said: I get where you're coming from. I suspect a lot of them, the lobby fodder are just keeping their heads down, voting with whatever their leader says, to keep their local associations happy, to not get deselected. They're not courageous enough to actually do anything "disloyal", even though large numbers of them actually think and believe what's happening is both bad and a nightmare. Every piece of information available to them, and they should damn well read it, as it's their job to make informed decisions, says Leave = worse than now. I basically agree with this part of your post, and less so the rest, but really my argument here boils down to 'if you're an MP, at a certain point 'what you consistently vote for' = 'what you believe', especially on a matter like Brexit where whipping has nearly collapsed'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: @bickster - I am answering two points that you made. 1) This morning, you wrote: 'In other related news, Corbyn says if there is a 2nd referendum then he may vote leave dependant on the WA (he's speaking personally) so can we put that “he's changed” nonsense to bed now, thanks as he's not considering the other option, you know the one that really protects jobs and services' I explained why Corbyn cannot make the vote the Continuity Remain campaign, and so we cannot draw any inferences about whether or not he's planning to vote one way or the other in a hypothetical second referendum. 2) Later, you wrote: 'I take issue with this bit, the vast majority of MPs want to remain, it's just that there's rather a lot of Tories who would rather not be seen to be helping us remain, respecting the referendum and all that guff' I am arguing that it is not true that 'the vast majority of MPs want to remain'. It's not even true that all Labour MPs - who are a minority in Parliament - want to Remain, and it certainly isn't true of Conservatives (of whom at least half would need to be in favour of remaining for your assertion that 'the vast majority of MPs want to remain' to be true). I also explained why this fact impacts on how the Labour frontbench are talking about the Kyle-Wilson amendment. 1) How was I to know you were talking about that post, you quoted a completely different one, however, I don't see how your answer even fits that either 2) See above post, I've already answered that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I basically agree with this part of your post, and less so the rest, but really my argument here boils down to 'if you're an MP, at a certain point 'what you consistently vote for' = 'what you believe', especially on a matter like Brexit where whipping has nearly collapsed'. It is not fear of the whips, it never has been, it is fear of deselection by the local party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bickster said: It is not fear of the whips, it never has been, it is fear of deselection by the local party . . . and again, so what? They're in government. They govern the country. These votes actually matter. Will we have somehow left the EU by less, if they didn't really mean it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 17, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: . . . and again, so what? They're in government. They govern the country. These votes actually matter. Will we have somehow left the EU by less, if they didn't really mean it? I'd read that second sentence again and see if you really believe you typed that See, I'm highlighting the idiocy of Party Politics a system you appear to be wedded to and me not so much, which is why you keep vociferously defending weird tangential points that aren't really what I was getting at It is wrong that such a small number of people exert an influence over a Tory MP, it's not democratic, the same is true of Labour too but at least the numbers are higher and usually more democratically derived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, bickster said: I'd read that second sentence again and see if you really believe you typed that See, I'm highlighting the idiocy of Party Politics a system you appear to be wedded to and me not so much, which is why you keep vociferously defending weird tangential points that aren't really what I was getting at It is wrong that such a small number of people exert an influence over a Tory MP, it's not democratic, the same is true of Labour too but at least the numbers are higher and usually more democratically derived Party politics is the system that exists, and there is no prospect of an alternative. I don't disagree about the fundamental nuttiness of the Conservative party's members - far from it - but a] I don't see any reason to assume that's the only reason they keep voting for Brexit legislation, and b] I don't see why it matters what the motivation of MPs is in any case. Politicians, especially those in government, don't get bonus points for voting a particular way but feeling bad about it. Anyway, I'm off for dinner and I'm sure this argument has dominated enough of the thread already. Have a lovely evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 17, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 53 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: my argument here boils down to 'if you're an MP, at a certain point 'what you consistently vote for' = 'what you believe', I understand that, and it's a reasonable inference to take. Maybe I'm more cynical, but my take is that they still don't actually believe it - if you like they're serial liars, or hypocrites. They've abandoned their actual duty to represent and generally protect and promote the interests of all their constituents. They're effectively doing that only for their throbbers (in the case of the tories and a few Labour melons) in order to hang on to their jobs, or curry favour with whoever. It's a shameful dereliction of their paid roles. The system is broken, clearly, because so many of them are doing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 4 hours ago, blandy said: I think the difficulty is with Corbyn himself. The Labour party policy is/was to call for a referendum in the event the the Tory Brexit (this WA) doesn't meet their tests (which nothing ever could). So, so far, so good. Yet Corbyn himself is saying that he might vote for May's WA Brexit, rather than the alternative (remain). It's mental. He's spent yonks telling everyone that May's deal is utterly shite (which it is), because it doesn't protect jobs and the NHS and livelihoods and etc. ...and then he's going to vote for it over remain. Not that long ago he was saying that he believes sort of 7/10 remain is better than leaving. As @Dr_Pangloss says, "Corbyn is a complete and utter word removed". The bloke is completely unfit to be a party leader. That’s not what Corbyn said. In a choice between May’s deal and remain he presumably would vote remain. His controversial quote in the Independent was that he’d rather vote for his Unicorn Brexit that vote remain if the referendum was (somehow?) between those two options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 17, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 hours ago, LondonLax said: That’s not what Corbyn said. In a choice between May’s deal and remain he presumably would vote remain. From Bicksters link Quote “It depends what the choice is in front of us. If we’ve got a good deal in which we can have a dynamic relationship with Europe ... then that might be a good way forward that unites the country. “It depends what the relationship is that we’ve agreed in the future.” i.e his unicorn - then he'd vote for his Unicorn. May's cluster pork, he'd vote for leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, blandy said: From Bicksters link i.e his unicorn - then he'd vote for his Unicorn. May's cluster pork, he'd vote for leave. Am I missing something? He's talking about a referendum vote between a hypothetical deal and remain. He's saying that if the deal being voted on was one he liked (i.e. his special customs union++ deal) he'd vote for that over remain but if it was a 'bad deal' (i.e. May's 'cluster pork') he'd vote remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 17, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: Am I missing something? He's talking about a referendum vote between a hypothetical deal and remain. He's saying that if the deal being voted on was one he liked (i.e. his special customs union++ deal) he'd vote for that over remain but if it was a 'bad deal' (i.e. May's 'cluster pork') he'd vote remain. I dunno, maybe I am, but to me he’s talking about a choice between May and leave and picking leave. His deal isn’t on the table, and is very unlikely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, blandy said: I dunno, maybe I am, but to me he’s talking about a choice between May and leave and picking leave. His deal isn’t on the table, and is very unlikely to be. LL is right. May's deal is "leave". He's effectively just stating Labour's policy (sic). He'd vote for his unicorn if it were available over EU membership. But he wouldn't vote for the currently negotiated agreement over EU membership. Even though they are basically the same thing anyway. (Edit - the Labour negotiation and Conservative negotiation are the same, not the Conservative negotiation and membership) Edited March 18, 2019 by ml1dch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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