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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

a £10,000 salary

 

2 hours ago, villa4europe said:

....he doesn't represent many of us...

More than you might think 

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Just now, blandy said:

 

More than you might think 

Yes, that's an unfortunate typo (from the original, I stress!)

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1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

Yes, that's an unfortunate typo (from the original, I stress!)

Isn't it £10k salary on top of the standard MPs wage

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

Isn't it £10k salary on top of the standard MPs wage

Yes. 

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'Meaningful vote' might be delayed until March 21st.

The PM holding the country hostage, perfectly acceptable.

She's making a statement to Parliament today. Another waste of time.

Her deal was voted down by the biggest margin in history. But that doesn't matter, she just pretends it didn't happen.

I hate the word removed.

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Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself

'Almost exactly two years ago, Theresa May was sitting in her office in Downing Street, baffled by the stance of her pro-Remain rebel Tory MPs.

“Dominic Grieve and these people need to calm down,” an exasperated Prime Minister told her colleagues. “I’m not going to do anything crazy. I’m not going to just jump off a cliff.”

According to one of the people present, May was particularly indignant that Grieve and his small band of like-minded backbenchers were terrified by the prospect of a “hard” exit, or worse, a no-deal exit.

As she tried to navigate the tricky obstacles within and without her own party, “pragmatism” had been her watchword, she told the private meeting.

But fast forward to today, and there is a growing fear among some MPs that May is now indeed preparing to do “something crazy”, and allow the UK to crash out of the European Union without a Brexit agreement.

And with the clock ticking down to the planned exit day of March 29, some of those who know her best have told HuffPost UK that the PM is “thinking the unthinkable” of a no-deal departure.

May’s preferred option is to rescue her withdrawal agreement with the EU, by getting Brussels to agree a new legally binding form of words to assure both the Northern Irish DUP and restless Brexiteers that the UK won’t be tied indefinitely to EU trade rules.

Yet with a second “meaningful vote” on Brexit not due until possibly sometime next month, several Tory and Labour backbenchers are sceptical about their chances of stopping no-deal.

Government insiders and cabinet ministers believe that the PM has in recent weeks decided that jumping off the cliff may somehow have a softer landing than expected.

The key moment came in the days after the crushing 230-vote Commons defeat May suffered last month, as Brexiteers and Remainers united to reject her planned deal.

Acutely aware that the bulk of the 118 Tory MPs who voted against were Leavers, she was urged in a cabinet conference call to make peace with her party.

Chief whip Julian Smith and, crucially, party chairman Brandon Lewis made a forceful case that she had to find a way to accommodate her backbenches, rather than make a grand bargain with the official Labour opposition.

Smith had warned her before the vote that she would lose if she didn’t address MPs’ concerns about the so-called backstop for Northern Ireland, the guarantee in the deal to keep the province’s border open with Ireland through continuing alignment of EU rules.

A fortnight later, May was thrown a lifeline by her party after she agreed to ask Brussels for “alternative arrangements” that could win a parliamentary majority.

In recent days, May has more than ever bought into the Smith-Lewis argument that party unity has to come first, one source claims.

“She’s thrown all of her weight behind the chief whip. He’s telling her ‘your party is f***** if you do anything other than hold strong’.”

Despite a flicker of hope in recent days that May is reaching out to Jeremy Corbyn to seek common ground, few around her believe she will countenance the kind of “soft” Brexit – including some version of a UK-EU customs union – that Labour is demanding.

Even in her letter to Corbyn released on Sunday night, May signalled she was not budging from her red line that any customs union would undermine the UK’s future ability to strike independent trade deals with non-EU countries.'

More on link: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?guccounter=1

This could not be more depressing. The wife and I are considering emigrating to Canada at the moment (not only because of this, but it's part of the thinking). 

Edited by HanoiVillan
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22 minutes ago, Chindie said:

'Meaningful vote' might be delayed until March 21st.

If this is the case, will the government continue with their approach to Brexit-related legislation, i.e. not putting it before the House of Commons in case amendments are laid by the various unhappy factions and they end up on the wroong side of embarrassing defeats?

Surely, they can't be 'planning' that? They can't be that reckless.

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5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

...Even in her letter to Corbyn released on Sunday night, May signalled she was not budging from her red line that any customs union would undermine the UK’s future ability to strike independent trade deals with non-EU countries.'....

Makes me glad I have a firm career path in Poland tbh

Edited by blandy
clipped big quote

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2 minutes ago, bickster said:

They are insane

Brexit is insanity, so it's fitting.

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2 hours ago, Chindie said:

The Party, as ever, is more important than the country.

A fitting epitaph for the Conservative Party. 

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2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

A fitting epitaph for the Conservative Party. 

Might as well be an epitaph for the country

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5 hours ago, Chindie said:

I think the idea that No Deal can't happen is dead

I don't. I think no deal is the least likely outcome still. It's not going to happen. I know, yes, incompetent effwits. Yet still, nobody other than a few throbbers want it. It'll get sorted. Like I posted a week or so ago, neither the EU nor UK wants it it would hugely damage both and mean a border in NI. It won't happen. They're all just waiting for the other side to crack first, pushing it to the wire to increase the pressure. Both sides will avoid it.

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4 minutes ago, blandy said:

I don't. I think no deal is the least likely outcome still. It's not going to happen. I know, yes, incompetent effwits. Yet still, nobody other than a few throbbers want it. It'll get sorted. Like I posted a week or so ago, neither the EU nor UK wants it it would hugely damage both and mean a border in NI. It won't happen. They're all just waiting for the other side to crack first, pushing it to the wire to increase the pressure. Both sides will avoid it.

I commend the optimism but I don't agree.

Nobody wants No Deal, but nobody really wanted the First World War either. It still came about.

It's the most likely outcome. It's the default, nothing needs change for it to come about and nothing seems to be moving to stop it. The UK government move is gamble on Parliament being spooked. The EU position is effectively make your mind up - and they would be damaged by No Deal, but not hugely, which is further helped by the efforts they gone to to mitigate some of (which was seen by UK morons as weakness and concessions). There's also increasing talk of the parts of the EU being happy to see us out, with opposition to extensions and so on.

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12 minutes ago, Chindie said:

This is just underlines how stupid Brexit is.

in 2017 * we were Japans 10th biggest trading country for Exports  .. to put it in perspective  , Japan exported  more goods to the U.K than  France , and Italy  combined   .. or if you wanted to look at it another way , Japan exported more goods to the Uk than  Spain , Poland , Hungary , Czech Republic . Austria , Ireland ,Luxembourg , Denmark ,Portugal , Malta , Romania  , Finland , Greece ,Slovakia ,Slovenia and Bulgaria combined

So yes collectively the EU has more bargaining power  , and great for Bulgaria   but  the Uk is roughly comparable with Australia in terms of importance to Japan  and the Japanese / Oz trade deal  was called " by far the most liberalising trade agreement Japan has ever concluded "

 

so , I dunno maybe its a bit early to conclude that Japan wants to give us a crap deal just cause the interent says so

 

*  i dont know what 2018 data shows ,

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34 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I commend the optimism but I don't agree.

Nobody wants No Deal, but nobody really wanted the First World War either. It still came about.

It's the most likely outcome. It's the default, nothing needs change for it to come about and nothing seems to be moving to stop it. The UK government move is gamble on Parliament being spooked. The EU position is effectively make your mind up - and they would be damaged by No Deal, but not hugely, which is further helped by the efforts they gone to to mitigate some of (which was seen by UK morons as weakness and concessions). There's also increasing talk of the parts of the EU being happy to see us out, with opposition to extensions and so on.

The worst thing that could happen is that May refuses to change her red lines, the EU say "no change then" and then there's a vote to support or reject her deal late on. If she wins it - then that's not no deal, and if she loses it, then A50 gets either "please can we extend" or withdrawn by parliament. No deal is only the default if the UK takes no action, and we won't take no action at all.

May's trying (as I said previously) to play chicken with her ERG throbbers and also with the EU, and the EU are playing chicken with May. They all know what's going on. She'll lose. Again as said previously, all she wants to do is not take the long term blame, to spread it around,  to either Labour or to say "the EU forced us" and also, natch, to be mean to immigrants.

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40 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

its a bit early to conclude that Japan wants to give us a crap deal

How did you leap to 'crap deal' from 'Likely to demand from the United Kingdom concessions that it was unable to demand from the European Union'?

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