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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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On 02/02/2019 at 22:04, jackbauer24 said:

Sunderland vote overwhelming to Leave. Nissan have now decided to do the same threatening jobs in Sunderland. The same pattern is beginning to become apparent to industries across Leave areas where it is the least well educated (and statistically more likely to vote Leave) that will feel the first destructive punches of Brexit.

I'm petty, but it's rare in this world to see at least some karma.

new jobs that were due to be created for the X-trail won't now be happening but it's my reading of the situation that zero jobs are going to be lost by this decision and Nissan aren't planing to leave  Sunderland 

yes  there is an element of Brexit about the decision , but  it's not the only factor  ..... other factors  appear to be Ghosn 's sacking from Nissan , declining sales  and  the zero tariffs making it more cost effective for Japan to up current production in Japan , to my knowledge they aren't taking this from Sunderland and moving it to Poland or France  etc , merely increasing production back in Japan  ( so quite possibly the EU trade deal deal might still have seen Japan switch production to Japan , Brexit or no Brexit ? )

the leaf is still being made in Sunderland and sales are on the increase and at present Sunderland appears to be quite safe  , so I'm not sure Instant Karma is going to get Sunderland ...just yet

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1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

new jobs that were due to be created for the X-trail won't now be happening but it's my reading of the situation that zero jobs are going to be lost by this decision and Nissan aren't planing to leave  Sunderland 

yes  there is an element of Brexit about the decision , but  it's not the only factor  ..... other factors  appear to be Ghosn 's sacking from Nissan , declining sales  and  the zero tariffs making it more cost effective for Japan to up current production in Japan , to my knowledge they aren't taking this from Sunderland and moving it to Poland or France  etc , merely increasing production back in Japan  ( so quite possibly the EU trade deal deal might still have seen Japan switch production to Japan , Brexit or no Brexit ? )

the leaf is still being made in Sunderland and sales are on the increase and at present Sunderland appears to be quite safe  , so I'm not sure Instant Karma is going to get Sunderland ...just yet

You are missing a couple of points here, Nissan said the production was coming here because of the reassurances they'd had from May, they've gone back on that decision and the free trade thing in with Japan is irrelevant, that has been on the cards for a loooooong time, so can have played little part in the decision to reverse, it would have already been factored in to the original decision, so that happening has had little bearing on it unless a WTO rues situation is envisaged by Nissan, which I presume they were promised wouldn't happen.. You're also missing the way that the car industry works these days. Plants kind of bid for these contracts in an internal market if you like, so yes no jobs will be lost currently because the production of whatever is already in Sunderland is there, it would be massively costly to move production of an existing line, prohibitively so but when that current line comes to the end of its lifespan, the question is really what replaces it? Well, the X-Trail was part of the replacement plan, now Sunderland will have to try and win another line in the internal market and this time, there'll be no government reassurances and assistance because clearly, the Nissan management has lost a lot of faith in that process as this decision shows. Sunderland won't lose jobs overnight, that would be far too expensive for Nissan but it will now clearly struggle to get any new investment

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46 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

the zero tariffs making it more cost effective for Japan to up current production in Japan

I think I saw in a tweet from someone (maybe Faisal Islam but not sure) that it was a yearly reduction in tariffs from where they are now (10%?) over a few years to 0% (they may have been wrong about that).

There will also be rules of origin changes, I guess, which would likely help.

Edit: Here's the tweet:

 

Edited by snowychap
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1 hour ago, bickster said:

You are missing a couple of points here, Nissan said the production was coming here because of the reassurances they'd had from May, they've gone back on that decision and the free trade thing in with Japan is irrelevant, that has been on the cards for a loooooong time, so can have played little part in the decision to reverse, it would have already been factored in to the original decision, so that happening has had little bearing on it unless a WTO rues situation is envisaged by Nissan, which I presume they were promised wouldn't happen.. You're also missing the way that the car industry works these days. Plants kind of bid for these contracts in an internal market if you like, so yes no jobs will be lost currently because the production of whatever is already in Sunderland is there, it would be massively costly to move production of an existing line, prohibitively so but when that current line comes to the end of its lifespan, the question is really what replaces it? Well, the X-Trail was part of the replacement plan, now Sunderland will have to try and win another line in the internal market and this time, there'll be no government reassurances and assistance because clearly, the Nissan management has lost a lot of faith in that process as this decision shows. Sunderland won't lose jobs overnight, that would be far too expensive for Nissan but it will now clearly struggle to get any new investment

As we are missing points you missed quite a few of mine , not least where I asked if the tariffs could be a factor as a question not a statement of fact , you also ignore where the man that made the deal with May was sacked which appears to have seen a change of policy with Japan can bring  it home for political reasons  ... another  reason appears to be to make petrol versions of the X-Trail in the UK would require shipping engines from Japan, something the business considered commercially unviable

the XTrail is a diesel / petrol car , that it is going to “replace” the leaf seems highly unlikely with the current trend to electric cars 

the company have cited brexit as a factor , I’m not arguing otherwise , but it isn’t the Biggest factor

Quote

 But the car, which was going to be produced from 2022 for about seven years, risked becoming obsolete if the market for diesel cars dried up while the vehicle was still on sale. The potential demand, especially towards the end of the vehicle’s production run, did not warrant a specific European manufacturing base for the car.

With Nissan in Europe suffering falling sales and poor margins, corporate headquarters in Japan is also keen to prioritise investment into more profitable areas.

And the other factor?

New European emissions rules have come into force since Nissan’s original decision, as well as a shorter timetable from the EU for lowering CO2 emissions during the 2020s.

The costs of complying with the new rules have forced the company to spend more on the development and engineering of the vehicle than planned — leading it to seek savings elsewhere, according to people familiar with the vehicle programme.

The company said it had “increased its investments in new powertrains and technology for its future European vehicles” since making its original decision.

By keeping production in Japan, rather than expanding it to the UK, Nissan saves itself the money that it would have spent hiring several hundred workers in Britain, and preparing the plant for the new model.

So it was a business decision?

All of the factors listed so far can be classed as “business decisions”. But there is one more moving part — Nissan’s own internal politics.

The 2016 deal was struck by Carlos Ghosn, who was at the time chief executive of the company but stepped back from the role in 2017 and is under arrest in Japan. The business is run more centrally by its present Japanese management than during Mr Ghosn’s globe-trotting era.

There is one school of thought within the company that Japan may have sought to repatriate the model to shore up its domestic business, ahead of future discussions with its alliance partner Renault over joint manufacturing. 

Nissan employees are concerned about losing their vehicles to Renault plants, as happened with the Nissan Micra, which is made by Renault in France.

 

and it’s in the FT so you can’t even write it off as biased lave propaganda :P

 

Edited by tonyh29
Leave not “lave” ... for some reason I can’t edit the post
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I have a question,  the tariffs gradually fade away in the below EU-JAP information.

Currently as they are they create some revenue for the EU for example.  What replaces this money in the EU P&L so to speak in 2027.  Someone somewhere is getting less money ?

This is more about trade deals in general I suppose.

(Now under EU-Japan FTA: 8.8%, next yr 7.5%, 2021 6.3%, 2022 5, 3.8, 2.5, 1.3 then 0 by 2027 (HT @SamuelMarcLowe )

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3 hours ago, ml1dch said:

"Leave the EU to save the British fishing industry!"

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exporting-and-importing-fish-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

"Ah. Bugger"

don't you already have to show catch certificates to sell to the EU ( since 2010)  ?

meanwhile as 35% of fish that the Irish , Dutch , French and Belgium catch are in British waters , we will have more fish  which presumably means more fish that can be caught be British trawlers  .. Industry Saved :)  ...long as the Uk  get used to eating sand eels ..meanwhile estimates are the Irish will have to pay around 9% more for their fish  , another reason for them to consider becoming part of the uk :P

 

Edited by tonyh29
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