peterms Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 hour ago, brommy said: If the leave deal/no deal voters second choices were transferred to no deal/deal, it wouldn’t split the leave vote. When a >50% majority is reached on counting second preferences, the result stands. At least the voters would know what the deal was they were voting on, unlike last time. I know people have over the last 3 years decided that experts don't know what they are talking about but it seems to be pretty widely accepted that No Deal will be the worst of all outcomes for this country so do we really want to be putting something to the public that we know will have poor consequences for the vast majority of them. The government themselves believe this deal is better than a no deal outcome . Something as monumental and complicated as leaving the EU should never have been put to the public the first time but having done so already it would be hard to say we f upped so lets just revoke. It would be absolutely mental though putting an option to the public that you know will have dire consequences as no deal would. If the government of the day are sure this is the best deal they can negotiate then it makes sense to me to now put that deal to the public against remain. There is zero logic in them putting a third option on the ballot paper worse than what has been negotiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mjmooney Posted October 20, 2019 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 20, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: There is zero logic in them putting a third option on the ballot paper worse than what has been negotiated. They'll do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I know people have over the last 3 years decided that experts don't know what they are talking about but it seems to be pretty widely accepted that No Deal will be the worst of all outcomes for this country so do we really want to be putting something to the public that we know will have poor consequences for the vast majority of them. The government themselves believe this deal is better than a no deal outcome . Something as monumental and complicated as leaving the EU should never have been put to the public the first time but having done so already it would be hard to say we f upped so lets just revoke. It would be absolutely mental though putting an option to the public that you know will have dire consequences as no deal would. If the government of the day are sure this is the best deal they can negotiate then it makes sense to me to now put that deal to the public against remain. There is zero logic in them putting a third option on the ballot paper worse than what has been negotiated. The original referendum gave the public an option that will reduce GDP (at least in the short and medium term), so I don’t think a second referendum should deny any option just because it is detrimental to the economy. Despite concern regarding the intelligence of the general public, I’d be confident that the no deal option would receive the least amount of votes. After counting second preferences, I think the remain and leave with a deal vote would be close. A 3 option referendum with transferable second preferences will never be offered but that won’t stop me thinking it’s the fairest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 & From the thread starting with this tweet: I think this may feed back in to something I suggested the other day about the Tory election campaign that might run on the back of this (Parliament agreed to it but then later didn't go through with the required legislation) if the implementation legislation fails to go through. Could they not point to this as saying that the House of Commons resolved the matter (as amended) and that was the decision of the Speaker in a ruling? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 hour ago, brommy said: I’d be confident that the no deal option would receive the least amount of votes. I wouldn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 20, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 20, 2019 Just now, StefanAVFC said: I wouldn't. Me neither but I wouldn't be so sure that all the "Deal" votes would transfer to No Deal either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 20, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 20, 2019 There appears to be MPs already changing their minds. The Beast of Bolsover, is now saying he won't vote for Johnson's Deal Nick Boles is also on the cusp of not backing it, for the stupidest of reasons but hey ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Just now, StefanAVFC said: I wouldn't. I think most, although far from all, leavers voted so on the belief there would be a deal. Now the disruption of a no-deal has been widely reported and not always been held up as project fear, I don’t think the no deal first choice vote would exceed 20%. My guess would be approximately: Remain 45%, Deal 40%, No deal 15%. Based on that guess, after counting second preferences, it would be a very close result between remain and leave with a deal, nudging toward leaving with the deal. Still way too close to be confident in any result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Just now, brommy said: I think most, although far from all, leavers voted so on the belief there would be a deal. Now the disruption of a no-deal has been widely reported and not always been held up as project fear, I don’t think the no deal first choice vote would exceed 20%. My guess would be approximately: Remain 45%, Deal 40%, No deal 15%. Based on that guess, after counting second preferences, it would be a very close result between remain and leave with a deal, nudging toward leaving with the deal. Still way too close to be confident in any result. I see it. Remain 45 No Deal 45 Deal 10 No Deal is now the only Brexit option in a lot of people's eyes, because of the incredibly effective way the goalposts have been moved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, bickster said: There appears to be MPs already changing their minds. The Beast of Bolsover, is now saying he won't vote for Johnson's Deal Nick Boles is also on the cusp of not backing it, for the stupidest of reasons but hey ho Interesting. Had ether of them previously declared they would back the deal; that is, is it a genuine change of mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 20, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 20, 2019 Just now, brommy said: Interesting. Had ether of them previously declared they would back the deal; that is, is it a genuine change of mind? Boles yes, he's saying he still will currently but reacting to the Daily Heil story about the ERG wanting a UK version of the logan act, he said if that idea advances one inch he'll vote against the deal Skinner has previouslybeen an abstainer on the "Meaningful votes" but was expected to be on the side of the deal. He's now saying he'll vote against it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: I see it. Remain 45 No Deal 45 Deal 10 No Deal is now the only Brexit option in a lot of people's eyes, because of the incredibly effective way the goalposts have been moved. Fair enough, after all we’re just guessing about the result of a 3 option referendum that will not be offered. In support of my guessing, the vast majority of those I know who voted leave did so in the belief it would be ‘easy’ via a deal (no matter how hard the deal was to agree). Just to add - it’s interesting to see we both think 45% remain and we only differ in the split between deal and no-deal. Edited October 20, 2019 by brommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, bickster said: Boles yes, he's saying he still will currently but reacting to the Daily Heil story about the ERG wanting a UK version of the logan act, he said if that idea advances one inch he'll vote against the deal Skinner has previouslybeen an abstainer on the "Meaningful votes" but was expected to be on the side of the deal. He's now saying he'll vote against it Another one: (i think!) EDIT: No i think I'm wrong. Edited October 20, 2019 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, brommy said: Just to add - it’s interesting to see we both think 45% remain and we only differ in the split between deal and no-deal. I'm being very cautious. I'd love nothing more than to see a 55% remain vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: I'm being very cautious. I'd love nothing more than to see a 55% remain vote. Followed by best of three, penalties or a dance off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 20, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Followed by best of three, penalties or a dance off? Dance off, with a lottery to see who gets to fire the bullets at Gove, Johnson and Cummings feet You might even save the NHS with the proceeds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted October 20, 2019 Administrator Share Posted October 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Followed by best of three, penalties or a dance off? Would your proposed third vote but run legally or like the first one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: I'm being very cautious. I'd love nothing more than to see a 55% remain vote. Understandably cautious. Unfortunately, knowing that the result would be close either way (<10% difference), division within the UK will still be massive. I suspect only a 2 to 1 majority would be enough for the minority to very begrudgingly accept. See the SNP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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