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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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1 hour ago, Genie said:

Are the grown ups in here going to make a prediction, or wait till after the result and say it was obvious it was going to happen 😉 

I'm not going to claim to be grown up but I will make one prediction:

Whatever happens in Parliament on Saturday (and whatever claims any particular group may make about the result of the vote), it will not be the end of matter.

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1 minute ago, snowychap said:

The deal being voted for in Parliament on saturday does not 'avoid any chance of a no deal Brexit'.

It passing on Saturday is probably the only way there could be a no deal Brexit on 31st October.

Can you explain please (and I'm asking sincerely in the nicest possible way)?

Surely if the deal passes that's that?
Whereas if it doesn't, Boris "has" to ask for an extension (possible trickery to avoid doing so?) but the EU doesn't have to grant one? Then what?

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6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Can you explain please (and I'm asking sincerely in the nicest possible way)?

Surely if the deal passes that's that?
Whereas if it doesn't, Boris "has" to ask for an extension (possible trickery to avoid doing so?) but the EU doesn't have to grant one? Then what?

The vote on Saturday is not the final vote. It's an indicitive vote on it. It would need to go through the lords, can be amended etc etc. 

But voting no on Saturday means extension (or asking for one) by law. 

Theres a feasible situation where Saturday is yes, the deal gets held up and isnt voted for before the 31st and Johnson doesn't have to ask for an extension because we have a 'deal'

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3 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Surely if the deal passes that's that?

No. A vote tomorrow does not complete the process of ratification and implementation - further legislation is needed to put a deal in to effect (the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill - as yet not published and rumoured to be the thing that has put smiles on the faces of Baker, Francois et al.).

It is why there is an amendment being put forward tomorrow by Letwin and others that amends the motion on the deal to say that "this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed."
 

 

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12 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Can you explain please (and I'm asking sincerely in the nicest possible way)?

Surely if the deal passes that's that?
Whereas if it doesn't, Boris "has" to ask for an extension (possible trickery to avoid doing so?) but the EU doesn't have to grant one? Then what?

I believe there are a couple of steps to passing the agreement and it will take a few rounds of voting. There is the vote on Sat and there is legislation that needs to follow (which should just be a formality if the Saturday vote passes)  

If some MP’s want to be sneaky they could pass the first part in Saturday, avoid the deadline of the Benn Act and then tank the deal during the follow up votes next week leaving ‘no deal’ the only option.

Edit: see more detailed responses above :P

 

Edited by LondonLax
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1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

The vote on Saturday is not the final vote. It's an indicitive vote on it. It would need to go through the lords, can be amended etc etc. 

Basic A-level politics, thanks for the reminder. Presumably then there's a hardline Brexit section, possibly including Boris himself, that want the indicative vote to pass in order to actually force a no deal situation.

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1 minute ago, LondonLax said:

there is legislation that needs to follow (which should just be a formality if the Saturday vote passes)

I don't think that's the consensus of commentators, especially as no one has yet seen the detail of the Implementation Bill.

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Thanks everyone. So is there no (legal/feasible) scenario where the deal is voted down on Saturday but we still somehow leave on the 31st?

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1 minute ago, fightoffyour said:

Thanks everyone. So is there no (legal/feasible) scenario where the deal is voted down on Saturday but we still somehow leave on the 31st?

If it's voted down tomorrow, Johnson complies with the Benn Act, asks for an extension and the EU decide not to grant one then the default (leaving on October 31st) still applies.

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1 minute ago, snowychap said:

If it's voted down tomorrow, Johnson complies with the Benn Act, asks for an extension and the EU decide not to grant one then the default (leaving on October 31st) still applies.

That's what I was afraid of. Hadn't previously considered the other worst case scenario of the deal passing and still resulting in no deal (I'm assuming we're all in agreement that no deal is still worse than any terrible deal?)

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14 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

That's what I was afraid of. Hadn't previously considered the other worst case scenario of the deal passing and still resulting in no deal (I'm assuming we're all in agreement that no deal is still worse than any terrible deal?)

The problem for me in what Johnson has agreed is that we still have no clear idea of what the future holds though we have a much clearer idea (as if it weren't already obvious) of the future for a UK run by a government with Johnson, Patel, Javid, Raab et al. in charge and that the level playing field commitments that have been taken out of the WA have just kicked that particular can down the road (the EU are, I think, making a mistake here).

Edit: There are obviously many other issues with the agreement which may have just as far-reaching consequences (effect of new NI Protocol on the status of the Union), though.

Edited by snowychap

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45 minutes ago, Genie said:

That is my prediction too. It'll lose by 2 or 3 votes. Then it'll be an extension to end of March and a GE.

Would Labour agree to an election this time?  

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46 minutes ago, snowychap said:

an amendment being put forward tomorrow by Letwin and others that amends the motion on the deal to say that "this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed."

Whilst I understand the reasons for this amendment, I wonder whether it might not turn out to be a problem because it may convince some Labour MPs (Kinnock, Snell and others) to give the agreement qualified consent on the basis that it isn't fully approved until implementing legislation goes through.

If they then take a dislike to the tone and content of the Implementation Bill, the Government is left to run on a ticket of not only did they get a deal but Parliament even accepted it and have now reneged upon that - the detail of this amendment being very much lost in the headlines (same as the detail of the Referendum legislation being advisory or the Brady amendment only being passed in a particular context).

Actually, thinking more about this, I wonder whether the Government might just be convinced to publish an Implementation Bill that definitely provokes that reaction.

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26 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Would Labour agree to an election this time?  

Looks as though the opposition plans to get a second referendum failed again yesterday as they couldn't get agreement, so they are planning tomorrow to strengthen the Benn Act in some way

They must be close to running out of options , thus a GE has to become inevitable at some point  , just don't ask me when !!

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Got an extra large bag of toffee popcorn in for the big show tomorrow (can't get to VP as I'm on call with work)... Animated GIF

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20 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I think a lot less people that voted leave would bother voting this time which would lead to a remain majority. 

I'm not so sure about that. I think a lot of previously apathetic non-voters on both sides have been politicised by the post-ref shitstorm. 

On the leave side, it seems to have gone: 

2015: "EU? Don't ever think about it, tbh". 

2016: "£350M we could be spending on the NHS? That gets my vote". 

2017: "Apparently, this Remain lot are the enemies of The People, they're a bunch of gay immigrant-loving Marxists". 

2018: "But we voted for it, and now these remoaner MPs are trying to stop it". 

2019: "I don't know why, and I don't care, but nothing will ever change my mind now". 

 

Edited by mjmooney
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