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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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Just now, Davkaus said:

Labour have lost their voterbase on this issue. Most Labour seats want out, if they run a general election on the case of backing down on the referendum results, they'll annihilate their support.

Labor, Tories... whomever.

I agree, labor look done right now but strange forces could be unleashed off the back of the next month of uncertainty.

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2 minutes ago, Czechlad said:

My girlfriend holds a British passport because she was born in Scotland. I hold a Czech passport. So basically if I want to continue working in Britain, I have to marry my girlfriend and become a British citizen correct? 

We probably won't have an answer to this for ~2 years. It's likely that people already in the country will be given permission to stay, as long as the EU permits British citizens resident in the EU to stay on as residents, but it's all guesswork.

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Just now, Czechlad said:

My girlfriend holds a British passport because she was born in Scotland. I hold a Czech passport. So basically if I want to continue working in Britain, I have to marry my girlfriend and become a British citizen correct? 

nothing changes for 2 years minimum

then nobody is going to be marched to the border or forced to sell up a flat

pensioners did this, not blackshirts

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10 minutes ago, krisagg75 said:

i wonder how much of the leave vote was an anti government vote.

"I hate how the government are running things, let's give them more power, that'll show 'em!"

If people really have voted along this line of reasoning, there's even more idiots in this country than I thought.

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8 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I can only assume things are essentially on hold until a new Conservative leader is elected?

Pretty much. I think Cameron said that it would be up to a new PM to invoke article 50.

I'm not sure why they need to wait until party conference time to have a leadership election, though. Perhaps they don't fancy screwing up their summer holiday plans.

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6 minutes ago, villakram said:

So, what about this

(i) As the vote is non-binding (in the strictly legal sense). 

(ii) With cameron gone, I wonder what the chances of a new election are? This could be used as an avenue to a proxi-referendum II campaign. I.e., vote labor and we will may not invoke article 50 but instead use it at the negotiating table to get some sort of super associate state status that basically translates to the status quo in some form. Or some other political fudge along those lines.

I think the political world just got a large wake up call. Spanish elections coming up, and already agitation for leaving in Holland and Italy. I do hope all this talk of an Irish referendum is put down as that would be absolutely horrible.

Legally binding or not. I think it would be political suicide to not follow it through. 

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10 minutes ago, krisagg75 said:

i wonder how much of the leave vote was an anti government vote.

anti establishment I think - theres no great hate for the Tories. I think a lot of people wanted to give the uk goverment a problem, on the assumption that they will sort it out. Theres no quick fix for this one as far as I can see... 

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1 minute ago, av1 said:

Legally binding or not. I think it would be political suicide to not follow it through. 

Or be seen to follow it through.

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7 minutes ago, Czechlad said:

My girlfriend holds a British passport because she was born in Scotland. I hold a Czech passport. So basically if I want to continue working in Britain, I have to marry my girlfriend and become a British citizen correct? 

From memory when working in immigration (and this may have changed now!) you don't need to marry, but you do need to prove that you've lived together for at least 2 years and have relevant documentation regarding proof of income etc. at whatever the necessary level is.

But yeah, you've got a while to wait before anything official is implemented.

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11 minutes ago, Czechlad said:

My girlfriend holds a British passport because she was born in Scotland. I hold a Czech passport. So basically if I want to continue working in Britain, I have to marry my girlfriend and become a British citizen correct? 

Do you two have a cat? :)

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5 minutes ago, bobzy said:

From memory when working in immigration (and this may have changed now!) you don't need to marry, but you do need to prove that you've lived together for at least 2 years and have relevant documentation regarding proof of income etc. at whatever the necessary level is.

But yeah, you've got a while to wait before anything official is implemented.

Rumors that Scotland wants to join the EU, so I imagine things might get a bit hectic for us in the next few years. 

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I'm concerned about the situation here in NI. I hope at least that there won't be a visible border, checkpoints, and a return of the army to man it. Although I can't see a good alternative - maybe stricter control at ports? Yeah, I can really see the unionists merrily whip out their passports to get into England. Aside from that, economically the country is **** without big EU subsidies and Westminster certainly don't care enough to pay up. The border counties are in a spot of bother. I think, despite what the DUP say, that there will be a border poll within the decade if the issues aren't resolved in a considered and meaningful way.

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34 minutes ago, hippo said:

I think its taken even Brexit by surprise. Johnson is now saying there is no rush to quit the EU. Amazingly I saw John Redwood saying we should say with access to the single market - But not accept free movement of labour (good luck with those negotiations). There doesn't seem any plan as to what we do now 

I think a lot people who voted Leave - aren't so convinced less than 24 hours later .....I have heard people say 'i voted leave but didn't think we would'  - its seems like protest vote gone wrong....

 

28 minutes ago, krisagg75 said:

i wonder how much of the leave vote was an anti government vote.

This. I really think that the whole of the UK is completely disenfranchised with the current political system. Look at the General Election and how the SNP and UKIP scored massive votes. Even Greens did better than previous years. Then you look at  Corbyn being voted in, a clear indication for the Labour party that they were utterly unhappy with the Blair clones that kept on being presented to them. 

Then this vote where you had the "establishment" on 1 side and the "outsiders" on the other with the majority of "outers" being from poor, disillusioned backgrounds. To me there are definite people on both sides; but a large part of the middle ground are sick of what has happened over the last 8/9 years and want change and this is "change". 

 

33 minutes ago, av1 said:

Looking back to David Cameron's renegotiation talks with the EU, with the rather arrogant 'like it or lump it attitude' that seemed to come across.  I wonder if:

1) A better deal may have swayed a few more voters to remain.

2) The EU leaders are regretting the stance. 

It seems to me that no one really took brexit seriously, almost as if remain was certainty. 

 

If there was a 3rd option of "Go back and get a better deal" I think that would have probably got 80-90%. Most people appear to say that "it's not right at the moment" and that needs tinkering with. When given the options of "like it or lump it", well it forces the hands and as said above, people are sick of the status quo and want change. When it actually has got through, I really do not think people appreciated how annoying politicians are. 

 

29 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

The problem is, the senior figures on the Leave campaigns have no relevant power. Gove is a minister, for something completely irrelevant, the rest have no influence at all. So they were free to promise the world, knowing they didn't have to actually deliver anything. Redwood is still in that position hence his ridiculous 'plan'.

Now we have a pro EU PM and Chancellor, who know they'll be gone in a few months and probably have no intention of actually getting the ball rolling, so who is supposed to be dealing with it? I can only assume things are essentially on hold until a new Conservative leader is elected?

 

Nothing will probably happen now unitl the new PM is elected and even then if they call a snap General Election it could be even longer before it even gets started. When it apparently took Greenland 3 years to leave I cannot imagine how long it would take to untangle everything in order to leave. 

And the lack of a "plan" was, for me, one of the massive flaws in the Leave campaign. They couldn't give a real answer as to what would happen if we did vote and right now you've got a mixture of "call it now" or "enact own legislation" or "wait for a short while". None of the "outers" are saying the same thing and right now it is a complete mess. 

This is why I am worried about it all. It is a complete gamble and nobody has a damn clue of what to do. Even bloody Farage can only talk about creating a bloody Bank Holiday for "Independance Day". It has been a shambles from beginning to end, with damn lying politicians (on both sides) and it does not surprise me that people are so anti government/politics. 

I do wonder if a poll was done in a month's time to see what people's views are; I wouldn't be surprised at all if "Remain" would win that time.

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8 minutes ago, CarewsEyebrowDesigner said:

I'm concerned about the situation here in NI. I hope at least that there won't be a visible border, checkpoints, and a return of the army to man it. Although I can't see a good alternative - maybe stricter control at ports? Yeah, I can really see the unionists merrily whip out their passports to get into England. Aside from that, economically the country is **** without big EU subsidies and Westminster certainly don't care enough to pay up. The border counties are in a spot of bother. I think, despite what the DUP say, that there will be a border poll within the decade if the issues aren't resolved in a considered and meaningful way.

And despite rosy dreams of re-unification, there is no way (Ro)Ireland could support that financially w/o EU support and who knows what happens to the EU now.

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I work for Sainsbury's and at work today i heard two customers talking about the vote, to which one said 'I voted out, but I don't know what will happen now. How weird would it be if we joined Africa'..

These are the idiots that voted leave...

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This sucks. I have numerous friends from Czech who work in Scotland and England. My friend traveled from Czech to Scotland to study and get a job here, so I assume she is not going to be allowed?

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20 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Do you two have a cat? :)

No why? Girlfriend is allergic. 

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1 minute ago, Rainer said:

How weird would it be if we joined Africa'..

 

It would work quite nicely, we can squeeze the island in just under Nigeria.

We'd probably have to go upside down so we can hook up the tunnel to something.

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I've seen multiple reports of various people being told 'now you can go home' (and variations of) today. Those irresponsible, self-serving arseholes really have no idea what they've unleashed.

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Incredibly early days (the outlook should be to years and decades, not just for today), but after the initial panic, I think the markets have taken the result reasonably well. Consider that the stock and currency markets had already 'priced in' an expected remain result and were considered to be temporarily slightly high. Before yesterday, there was talk of 'profit taking' after a remain result which would have resulted in a drop in share and pound value, albeit smaller than with an exit result. As it stands the FSTE 100 has recovered to a 2.3% fall whilst the pound appears to be affect more at around 8% lower. I expect the pound to continue to struggle for some time but it may recover a little against a weakening Euro. Either way the figures to date don't yet appear to be in the 'sky falling down' category. Time will tell.

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