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Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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Well the two lads at my work who say it are ex-squaddies so I'd assume they know they what it means. 

Its all just meaningless ranting mainly, but it does show you how entrenched people's feelings are on the situation. People expecting Johnsons latest outbursts and actions to massively negatively effect him in the polls are mistaken based on my personal experiences. 

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1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

you want something good , i think respectfully you aren’t looking hard enough but I throw out an easy one for you ... common agricultural policy , leave the EU and this ends ... ordinarily the idea that rich landowners are paid based on the amount of land they own not to produce anything would have the VT left up in arms , but I don’t recall anyone on here from the remain side objectively discussing it ...The plan is to replace CAP with public money for public goods ( how many times have you heard anyone mention that ? ) ... on paper it sounds  promising but regardless it has to be better than CAP doesn’t it ?

Points overseas - 'Look how bad Europe is'.

Looks to Westminster - 'Er?'

Quote

Grouse shooting estates shored up by millions in subsidies

Common agricultural policy money given to estates in England, including one owned by the Duke of Westminster, Britain’s richest landowner

The Abbeystead estate in Lancashire – owned by the Duke of Westminster’s Grosvenor estate – received £7,200 in farm subsidies in 2014 and £203,000 in 2015.

Grauniad

All In the land of foodbanks.

Tory filth.

Give me Brussels any day.

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Tony, if you dont mind me asking. 

What's the effect of potential No Deal for your wife? Or is she a British citizen now?

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42 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

All logic is gone in the Brexit argument now I feel. 

In the way people and parliament are behaving, yes, that's probably right. But there are different logical arguments or paths which could be followed or argued, rather than just one, and that doesn't help. IF there was only one path that is credible, or has credible arguments (leaving aside personal preferences) then it would be a lot easier.

There is a logic to the Brexiter argument that parliament agreed to hold a referendum, that parliament agreed and promised to abide by the result, that Labour and Tory manifestos promised to do a Brexit deal and so we need to leave with May's deal, because that's what was negotiated via the process with the EU.

There is a logic to say that detailed comprehensive analysis undertaken by Government shows that Brexit will be very harmful to the nation, and that parliament therefore needs to prevent harm to the nation. Particularly so when the original vote was tainted with rule breaking and lies to the extent that had it been a legally binding referendum rather than an advisory one, it would have been declared void.

There is a logic to say that now we have much more information on the reality of what Brexit entails, people should be asked to confirm "this is what we want (or no, we don't want that)" via a referendum.

There is an argument to say that parliament is so f***ed and unlikely to get unf***ed any time soon, that there should be an election.

There is absolutely no logical argument to say there should be a no deal Brexit.

Anyway, all these conflicting logics, appallingly dire governemnt, weak opposition, timid backbenchers (in the main) have led to a complete clusterpork.

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28 minutes ago, lp_villa830 said:

Well the two lads at my work who say it are ex-squaddies so I'd assume they know they what it means. 

Its all just meaningless ranting mainly, but it does show you how entrenched people's feelings are on the situation. People expecting Johnsons latest outbursts and actions to massively negatively effect him in the polls are mistaken based on my personal experiences. 

And all over something that nobody gave two hoots about until that bus with "£350M a week for the NHS" came along. A barefaced lie that will not be delivered. 

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2 minutes ago, Xann said:

Points overseas - 'Look how bad Europe is'.

Looks to Westminster - 'Er?'

Grauniad

All In the land of foodbanks.

Tory filth.

Give me Brussels any day.

Not something I profess to be an expert in but i thought Westminster only got to decide if the subsidies are paid at a farm level or at the regional level  , the funds themself are direct from Brussels  ,  Maybe I'm missing something but your article is precisely the practise that leaving the EU could help stop whilst putting an end to slipper farming  .....

 

Are  we the only country in Europe with foodbanks ? but you raise a good point and one  I've raised before and the EU protectionism that starves Africa whilst making certain foods expensive for Eu citizens  .. another reason why the EU is "bad" so thanks for that

 

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1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

you want something good , i think respectfully you aren’t looking hard enough but I throw out an easy one for you ... common agricultural policy , leave the EU and this ends ... ordinarily the idea that rich landowners are paid based on the amount of land they own not to produce anything would have the VT left up in arms , but I don’t recall anyone on here from the remain side objectively discussing it ...The plan is to replace CAP with public money for public goods ( how many times have you heard anyone mention that ? ) ... on paper it sounds  promising but regardless it has to be better than CAP doesn’t it ? 

 Tbf some posters have in moments of weakness said there are things they dislike about the EU and in other circumstances they could perhaps have been persuaded by a leave argument but then  say on reflection they conclude we are better off in , leavers don’t appear to be allowed the same courtesy of reflection 

the CAP is dreadful. No argument there.

As far as I'm aware, the Government (tories) promised to carry on subsidising for the first few years after Brexit - so no change initially. The question then comes to what will happen after that time, and who would you trust to implement something better?

Obviously you've got prominent tories, Daily Mail owners/Ex -editors -  that type who benefit hugely from EU subsidies for their piles and estates. Are these sorts of folk likely to push for the necessary reform? I rather think not. I suppose you could make an argument that Green party type policies bringing in better environmental protection and associating grants with protection might catch on to the extent that a future government might introduce them. I suppose you could make the argument that a COrbynite type future governement might decide to prioritise similar steps, rather than focus on NHS, Schools, poverty and so on, but realistically I'm not confident that Labour is serious about the environment and farming subsidies - I think they are snaffling Green ideas to try and neutralise votes being lost to the Green party and Lib Dems because of their (Labour's) Brexit "policy".

So basically, the theory that "we could do better" than the CAP is right. The likelihood is that our own inadequate government would not actually do so.

And that's before you get into the damage that Brexit would do to the farmers through loss of markets, cheaper imports, delays in transportation, etc. (as per Yellowhammer revelations)

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11 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Tony, if you dont mind me asking. 

What's the effect of potential No Deal for your wife? Or is she a British citizen now?

Sadly I'm stuck with her :)  as  she is a British citizen now , she applied pretty much as soon as she was eligible to , having made the decision to move here and then start a family here it was the natural /logical thing to do in our view   ... this was around 2003 so long before Brexit it was more about making sure in the event anything happened to me nothing was likely to prevent her staying here if she felt that was the best option for her ( and our children) though of course she'd still be free to move back to Hungary if that was her wish   

I get that some EU citizens might not want to tie themself to UK in that way as they may decide to move on at a future date  but for us it was an easy decision to make

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1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

The plan is to replace CAP with public money for public goods ( how many times have you heard anyone mention that ? ) ... on paper it sounds  promising but regardless it has to be better than CAP doesn’t it ?

That is an overall plan. I don't know how much detail there is to it, when it's supposed to be coming in or whether it will actually have the desired effect.

I said on here that I went to a local Brexit discussion (last October, I think) and one of the speakers was a/the Midlands bloke for the NUF who spoke about this very thing but, whilst he said it was a good thing, he appeared not to be very up on the detail mainly because there wasn't an awful lot - obviously this may be different now (I wouldn't guarantee it). I also remember a claim he made that the government said that they intended to do something specific with regard to local producers (I must apologise and say that I can't remember what it was) but I asked him whether this second policy wasn't possible whilst we were in the EU and he said that it absolutely was but that it wasn't something that had been done or was intended to be done until we had left. I realise that not remembering the particular thing isn't going to be much help but I was struck by the similarity with a lot of other industries in that there are many things that could and still can be done whilst being in the EU but which just haven't been.

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18 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

the EU protectionism that starves Africa

It doesn't.

Quote

the EU has special schemes in place with the majority of African countries that mean that they can import almost all of their goods into the EU tariff-free.

...

The EU has a number of schemes in place that reduce the tariffs that apply to different African countries. These include:

Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) and Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+)

These schemes enable the EU to offer preferential treatment, including tariff reductions, to products originating in developing countries. Together, the standard GSP and GSP+ cover seven African countries: Cabo Verde, the Republic of the Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Swaziland. These reductions only apply to imports from developing countries, and not the other way round.

Everything But Arms

This is a particular form of GSP scheme provides tariff free access to the EU customs union for products from places that the UN judges to be the “Least Developed Countries”, including 34 in Africa (not including Nigeria). As the name suggests, it applies to everything but weapons, so rice, maize, cereals and sugar are all covered. Again, this is a unilateral scheme: meaning that the EU drops these tariffs without asking these countries to do the same in return.

A small number of developed African countries are not included, but they're not the undeveloped ones with the "starvation"

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2 minutes ago, blandy said:

As far as I'm aware, the Government (tories) promised to carry on subsidising for the first few years after Brexit - so no change initially. The question then comes to what will happen after that time, and who would you trust to implement something better?

I believe that is the case  , but as i mentioned the longer term  plan , if you believe them  , is public money for public goods

Once we leave the EU on 31 October, we will create an ambitious new system based on paying public money for public goods. This will help our farmers become more profitable while sustaining our precious environment and tackling the effects of climate change.  the new Environmental Land Management (ELM) system will aim to offer land based businesses the opportunity of a meaningful income stream from delivering environmental benefits.

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Just now, tonyh29 said:

Sadly I'm stuck with her :)  as  she is a British citizen now , she applied pretty much as soon as she was eligible to , having made the decision to move here and then start a family here it was the natural /logical thing to do in our view   ... this was around 2003 so long before Brexit it was more about making sure in the event anything happened to me nothing was likely to prevent her staying here if she felt that was the best option for her ( and our children) though of course she'd still be free to move back to Hungary if that was her wish   

I get that some EU citizens might not want to tie themself to UK in that way as they may decide to move on at a future date  but for us it was an easy decision to make

I'm glad to hear it  

Not to trap you here, I'm in a similar boat with a partner from an EU country. 

You gave an example of the CAP around why leaving is good. 

Do you think it's a fair tradeoff for future people not to have the same opportunities to go and find love and companionship in another country? To make it harder for future generations to freely travel and find themselves? Isn't it a bit 'I benefited from the policy but now it doesn't affect me so whatever'?

The benefits that have been preached, some tangible, some totally theoretical just dont outweigh even just the opportunities we have by being in the EU. 

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Just now, tonyh29 said:

the longer term  plan , if you believe them

That bit there. That's the problem. I'm not wholly assured of the integrity and honesty of Boris Johnson and co.

Call me a cynic, but I detect that he might not be a wholly upstanding sort of chap. I wonder whether his association with the likes of Bannon and the US alt right might not reveal a rather less benign sort of nature, more interested in grabbing than giving.

Probably just me though...

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8 minutes ago, blandy said:

that parliament agreed and promised to abide by the result,

This is the long term problem as I see it,  if you go again,  then it's wide open to go again after that.  Like getting rid of the local drug dealer,  someone else will hold the Brexit beacon and I fear the only way to appease and for the sake of long term stability,  is to leave and rejoin (as mad as it sounds just hypothetically as oppose to this for 10 years) could be the only option in the end to sort the division,  or it might never go away and cripple the country either way forever.  It is that serious IMO.  This could carry on like this with extensions for a long time I suppose,  it's not the best time in the economic cycle (almost at the top of the roller coaster so to speak) to not even give the country a fighting chance to prosper no matter what side they are on.  At a certain point where we are now will seem normal,  until something else bigger happens and then what.  

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1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

Not something I profess to be an expert in but i thought Westminster only got to decide if the subsidies are paid at a farm level or at the regional level  , the funds themself are direct from Brussels  ,  Maybe I'm missing something but your article is precisely the practise that leaving the EU could help stop whilst putting an end to slipper farming  .....

It's Brussels directing us to direct the subsidy on grousing land? I think you know where to get off with that one.

Quote

“Instead of handing out taxpayers’ money to billionaires and offshore firms to indulge in an elite sport, the government must reform farm payments so public money is spent on public goods – like tree-planting, restoring wildlife habitats, farming sustainably and preventing flooding downstream,” he said. The future of the £3bn a year the UK receives in EU agricultural subsidies is a key part of the Brexit debate.

From the same article as above.

 

Shall we keep rolling with agriculture?

What about the policies of the US that the suits  re looking to fill the gap of a departed Europe?

We're aware you like to be flippant about chlorinated food, but of course it won't be you or your family eating it.

What about the GM companies, protected from their own mistakes by law in the US, where money comes first.

 

If people wanted to change the CAP? Vote for MEPs that will take action, and don't just moan about it when you didn't get off your arses in the European elections.

Also, don't vote in idiots that just press the 'No' button like complete pricks.

 

I'm glad you get to keep the wife though ;)

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5 minutes ago, Xann said:

It's Brussels directing us to direct the subsidy on grousing land? I think you know where to get off with that one.

Yeah, it is, as I understand it (could be wrong)

Quote

The European Union (EU) provides farmers with income support or “direct payments” to

  • function as a safety net and make farming more profitable
  • guarantee food security in Europe
  • and assist them in the production of safe, healthy and affordable food
  • reward farmers for delivering public goods not normally paid for by markets, such as taking care of the countryside and the environment

This is the bit where the rich folk get their dosh from.

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8 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

This is the long term problem as I see it,  if you go again,  then it's wide open to go again after that.  Like getting rid of the local drug dealer,  someone else will hold the Brexit beacon and I fear the only way to appease and for the sake of long term stability,  is to leave and rejoin (as mad as it sounds just hypothetically as oppose to this for 10 years) could be the only option in the end to sort the division,  or it might never go away and cripple the country either way forever.  It is that serious IMO.  This could carry on like this with extensions for a long time I suppose,  it's not the best time in the economic cycle (almost at the top of the roller coaster so to speak) to not even give the country a fighting chance to prosper no matter what side they are on.  At a certain point where we are now will seem normal,  until something else bigger happens and then what.  

Yeah, that's fair comment. I don't agree with all of it, but that doesn't make it wrong. Whatever happens - from leaving imminently, to not leaving after a referendum, it's going to carry on for a decade or so - either trying to recover all the deals that would need to be made, or through people opposed to "stopping brexit" carrying on Faraging. SO if we leave, like you say it will be trying to get deals or rejoin later, and if we remain people determined to carry on campaigning for leave.

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17 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I'm glad to hear it  

Not to trap you here, I'm in a similar boat with a partner from an EU country. 

You gave an example of the CAP around why leaving is good. 

Do you think it's a fair tradeoff for future people not to have the same opportunities to go and find love and companionship in another country? To make it harder for future generations to freely travel and find themselves? Isn't it a bit 'I benefited from the policy but now it doesn't affect me so whatever'?

The benefits that have been preached, some tangible, some totally theoretical just dont outweigh even just the opportunities we have by being in the EU. 

I think your opportunities to find love in far away places won't die  , I met Mrs H and lived in Hungary easily enough pre EU  , well I used to have to take a train to Vienna every few months to get an exit and entry stamp but I could have gone through the process of a more permanent stay if i'd have wanted to , Hungarian bureaucracy didn't move 't move very fast back then though

the overlooked thing to an extent is in the first instance the WA is about leaving  , future relationships can then be defined  , of course leaving with No Deal doens't  bode well for that future relationship  .. ok obviously we aren't going to have freedom of movement that we currently have , but there could be something agreed ,  short term v long term  .. at the risk of the rose-tinted glasses , long term i think a case could be made for us being better out of it  ... I'd love to elaborate but people are waiting for me in the meeting room and my claim of just firing off  a quick email aren't washing :)

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19 minutes ago, blandy said:

Yeah, it is, as I understand it (could be wrong)

This is the bit where the rich folk get their dosh from.

F*** a duck - You think think the EU said "you must increase your subsidy for grousing land"?

The a portion of CAP money is to sustain environments that otherwise might be turned over to making cash.

It's the UK Govt that decides which land falls under that remit.

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9 minutes ago, Xann said:

F*** a duck - You think think the EU said "you must increase your subsidy for grousing land"?

The a portion of CAP money is to sustain environments that otherwise might be turned over to making cash.

It's the UK Govt that decides which land falls under that remit.

The thing is, the arguments are bigger than the CAP. I know that's just one example of stuff Tony doesn't like about the EU that he's gone into at length, no need to get into it again. No one ever said the EU was perfect. It's far from that and even the most ardent remainer wouldn't say it is.

What people like Tony need to ask themselves is, do I care that much about the CAP/other reasons to dislike the EU that it's been worth what we've been through for 3+ years and what we're seeing right now?

We literally have a situation where the country is split 50/50 with one side branded traitors and the other being called racists. The country has torn itself to pieces and in one sides desperation to "win" (whatever that means) they've turned to a guy who has no morals, no conscience, who literally has found to have broken the law, who thinks it's fine to pour petrol on the fire, whipping up hatred and mistrust in MP's, Judges, Media because he thinks it's a vote winner.

Leavers, ask yourself, is the CAP, fish, blue passports, ending freedom of movement, ending ECJ jurisdiction + whatever other reasons you voted the way you did, worth it? No deflections, whataboutisms etc.

I think we all deserve an answer.

 

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