The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I'll just throw Skinner and Hoey in to that mix.

I can see the potential for a small number of Labour votes saving the day for May.

At least 15 according to the Indie

Quote

Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.

The MPs include the first to state publicly that they will struggle to vote against a deal secured in Brussels if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.

They say that crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for their constituents, while also fearing a backlash from voters accusing them of blocking Brexit.

It comes as Ms May appears resigned to having to rely on Labour votes to secure parliament’s support for her deal in the face of staunch opposition from many of her own Eurosceptic backbenchers.

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.

One prepared to go public, Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke Central, said: “If the deal is some sort of customs union, protection of the unity of the union and looking at a future trade deal, it would be very hard to justify why we’re not supporting that.”

Ruth Smeeth, Stoke North MP, said: “If the option is voting for the deal or voting for something that would mean no deal – well, I’m not prepared to vote for no-deal.”

Don Valley MP Caroline Flint said: “I believe if there is a reasonable deal that stops us crashing out with no deal, we shouldn’t rule it out.”

Speaking to Sky News' Sophy Ridge on Sunday, Ms Flint added: "The problem is, we are now - those of us who want to get a deal - are sometimes stuck between a rock and a hard place between hardline Brexiteers who think we can waltz off without a deal and some hardline Remainers who, for their own reasons don't want a deal because they want to overturn the referendum results."

Asked about speculation around 30 Labour MPs would be prepared to vote for a deal if it meant defying the whip, she said: "I'm really not sure, but I think if a reasonable deal is on the table the question for some of my Labour colleagues is 'why wouldn't you support a deal, why would you stand along (with) Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg who want us to crash out without a deal?"

If 15 Labour MPs put their support behind the deal, the prime minister could afford a Tory rebellion of more than 20, presuming she is able to keep the Democratic Unionist Party on her side.

Eurosceptic Tories claim they have at least 40 MPs ready to vote down the deal, although the government hopes to whittle down that number when pressure is applied.

Many Labour MPs in Leave-supporting constituencies feel they cannot both vote against Ms May’s deal while convincingly opposing a no-deal exit.

They are torn between, on the one hand, party members who will be furious if they help prop up a Tory prime minister and, on the other, constituents who will not forgive them if they vote in a way that could appear to be frustrating Britain’s exit from the EU.

“We can’t vote against the deal but also oppose no-deal without it looking very much like we’re voting against Brexit,” another said. “That isn’t an option.”

Mr Snell added: “I’m quite clear that no-deal would be an absolute disaster and therefore to avoid a no-deal outcome we’ve got to be open to supporting a deal that’s presented.

“I’m not wedded to opposing a deal just because it comes from the government. If the deal is as May has been suggesting then it would be difficult for me to justify to myself not strongly considering supporting it, if the alternative is crashing out without a deal.

Labour is expected to instruct its MPs to vote against Ms May’s deal, which it will say does not meet the six strict tests the party has set out.

However, one MP said: “Everyone knows the six tests were designed to never be met.”

Mr Corbyn and his team are likely to warn MPs how members will react if they vote with the government and help the Conservatives stay in power.

They will tell MPs that voting down Ms May’s deal would either force her to return to Brussels to renegotiate a softer Brexit, or trigger a general election – a suggestion some MPs have already dismissed.

“The suggestion that parliament could somehow force her to go crawling back to Brussels, or that Labour could force a general election, is nonsense,” one said.

Another said Labour could not credibly oppose a deal that had the support of all 27 other EU countries. “The idea the Labour Party should block a deal that is backed by the likes of Merkel, Macron and the rest of the 27 is ludicrous.”

The Labour leadership is understood to believe the fact that hardline Tory Eurosceptics will join them in the division lobby to vote against the deal will invalidate accusations the party is frustrating Brexit – a confidence not shared by many of the party’s MPs.

Potential rebels have increasingly found an unlikely ally in John McDonnell, who, MPs said, appears to be increasingly concerned about the risks of Labour being seen to vote against Brexit.

MPs dismissed reports that up to 30 Labour MPs could vote with the government and suggested the number of potential rebels has been intentionally inflated by Conservative whips in an attempt to convince Tory Eurosceptics that Ms May is not reliant on their support.

And despite reports that Downing Street is actively lobbying Labour rebels with a view to cobbling together a majority for Ms May’s deal, none of the Labour MPs spoken to by The Independent said they had been approached by Tory whips.

Several Labour frontbenchers are understood to be considering abstaining from the vote, effectively boosting Ms May’s chances of securing a parliamentary majority. They believe they could do this without having to resign from their positions.
 
One said: “I’m definitely not going to vote against the deal. If it’s a choice between a deal or no deal, the deal has got to be really bad for me to vote it down.

“No-deal is the worst possible option for my constituents. I’m pragmatic about it. If it’s something like Chequers I could support that. Several of us would likely abstain.”

Some MPs in Leave areas are banking on a constitutional get-out clause that would give them the cover to vote for a deal. While the Labour leadership and pro-EU Tory MPs are united in insisting the choice before parliament cannot be between Ms May’s deal and no deal, some Labour MPs believe that is exactly the decision they face.

Some have even sought the advice of constitutional experts in the hope of seeking credible confirmation that there would be no parliamentary mechanism for avoiding a no-deal outcome if Ms May’s deal is rejected. That would give them the justification they need to allow them to vote with the government.

 

[ml1dch]

Just now, bickster said:

At least 15 according to the Indie

 

Budget - not withdrawal agreement.

[Chindie]

It's all moot anyway as the reports now seem to be that there hasn't been an agreement, with Northern Ireland remaining an issue (whodathunk it?! Everyone work an ounce of a clue, so no Brexiteers).

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Budget - not withdrawal agreement.

But that won't end the Government anymore

[Chindie]

11 minutes ago, bickster said:

But that won't end the Government anymore

Officially no, but a government unable to pass a budget is **** regardless.

[bickster]

Just now, Chindie said:

Officially no, but a government unable to pass a budget is **** regardless.

Then we end up with an American style bipartisan deal situation in effect. Labour should use it to exact some form of movement on various issues with extra funding etc

Except they won't because they want to force a General Election so they can lose again

[ml1dch]

Just now, bickster said:

But that won't end the Government anymore

Probably not, but it's still what we were talking about.

And although the FTPA means it doesn't end the Government it would still be pretty unprecedented.

I can't even find the last time it happened.

[NurembergVillan]

Every Sunday we get a new article either by, about, or with David Davis being hyper-critical of where we're at with Brexit negotiations as if he's had absolutely nothing to do with it.

MPs are, for the most part, utterly shameless, but this **** is on another level entirely.

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Probably not, but it's still what we were talking about.

And although the FTPA means it doesn't end the Government it would still be pretty unprecedented.

I can't even find the last time it happened.

It hasn't happened, we're only in the second Parliament were it wouldn't be considered a vote of confidence

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

Every Sunday we get a new article either by, about, or with David Davis being hyper-critical of where we're at with Brexit negotiations as if he's had absolutely nothing to do with it.

MPs are, for the most part, utterly shameless, but this **** is on another level entirely.

He has had absolutely nothing to do with it, even when it was his job to do something about it

[ml1dch]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

It hasn't happened, we're only in the second Parliament were it wouldn't be considered a vote of confidence

I don't mean since the FTPA was introduced. I mean ever.

I got back as far as Wilson and decided I couldn't go any further.

Edited October 14, 2018 by ml1dch

[ml1dch]

44 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It's all moot anyway as the reports now seem to be that there hasn't been an agreement, with Northern Ireland remaining an issue (whodathunk it?! Everyone work an ounce of a clue, so no Brexiteers).

Apparently it was all agreed, then Dominic Raab turned up and it all went to shit.

Story of his life really.

[ml1dch]

 

(Small print - nothing has really changed since March)

 

[blandy]

12 hours ago, NurembergVillan said:

Every Sunday we get a new article either by, about, or with David Davis being hyper-critical of where we're at with Brexit negotiations as if he's had absolutely nothing to do with it.

MPs are, for the most part, utterly shameless, but this **** is on another level entirely.

“Thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus”, according to his brexit chum Cummins

[Chindie]

Another May statement coming this afternoon.

90% more acting tough after the nasty EU wouldn't agree to something it was never, ever going to. 4% toys thrown out of the pram walking away, 1% deal agreed in an inevitable climbdown that is spun as somehow the EU gave in.

[lapal_fan]

We're in a mental position and politically doing anything is suicide, as well as doing something.

whatever happens, half the country will hate you and vote against you, there is no clear majority for anything or anyone. 

An unknown quantity of "protest" voters who used Brexit as a vote against the current system set-up will affect a swing. 

The brexiters are split because with new information on just how **** we are, with differing offers/negotiations means they are unreliable as to what they will vote for in a election.

You have half the country against the whole thing, some that want to respect the democracy and get on with it, and some that want another referendum, some want it to be shut down completely.

Politically, for those in charge, and for those that want to get in, whom do you target?  Do you pin your flag to the remain in the EU and scrap the ref?  In which case you're going against democracy (for what it's worth) and you're singling out over half the voters.  Do you say "We'll carry on with it regardless?" where the remainers are already against you?

Politically, no one is a winner, no one can be certain, no one has a proper plan which is actually attractive to the majority of anyone. 

Cheers Dave, you broke the UK. 

[Rugeley Villa]

It was all based on lies and utter scaremongering. The papers and certain MPs played the martyr to the uneducated sorts like myself, who actually had no clue about politics and all the shit that goes with it. The whole thing is a fraud, and I truely believe if it was held again, the majority vote would be to remain. It’s disgusting how the whole thing has been handled, and I’m quite ashamed of myself to have bought into all the lies, and just the general I am a patriot bollocks. It’s crazy that this can go ahead where the majority vote came from people who are thick, racist, or just in general had no clue in what they were doing and voting for. Don’t get me wrong, there were some educated people who voted leave, and they would have had their well thought reasons as to why, but most I knew were absolutely clueless, and bigoted. Educate the uneducated without lies, and common sense will prevail. 

[chrisp65]

28 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

Cheers Dave, you broke the UK. 

where is he? eh? where is he?

In Nice on holiday with his trotters up.

clearing in the woods

 

[Stevo985]

Said it before, but it the Remain campaign had told everyone things like "european roaming charges will go up" and put it on the side of a **** bus, they'd have probably won.

[StefanAVFC]

1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said:

It was all based on lies and utter scaremongering. The papers and certain MPs played the martyr to the uneducated sorts like myself, who actually had no clue about politics and all the shit that goes with it. The whole thing is a fraud, and I truely believe if it was held again, the majority vote would be to remain. It’s disgusting how the whole thing has been handled, and I’m quite ashamed of myself to have bought into all the lies, and just the general I am a patriot bollocks. It’s crazy that this can go ahead where the majority vote came from people who are thick, racist, or just in general had no clue in what they were doing and voting for. Don’t get me wrong, there were some educated people who voted leave, and they would have had their well thought reasons as to why, but most I knew were absolutely clueless, and bigoted. Educate the uneducated without lies, and common sense will prevail. 

Well said Ruge