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blandy

Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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Theresa May has abandoned her pledge that a deal to keep the UK in the EU customs territory must be “time-limited”, paving the way for likely cabinet resignations.

The prime minister’s spokeswoman refused – four times – to say the “backstop” agreement, to avoid a hard border in Ireland, would have a strict end date, the assurance she set out four months ago.

Instead, No 10 said only that it must be “temporary”, a much looser word that - pro-Brexit ministers fear – will leave the UK locked into an effective customs union for many years to come.

Indie

Pass the popcorn....

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Oh, it was slipped out on a Friday during a HRH Taxdodger White Dress Inbreeding Program Event, in the hope that many gammons were fapping over the footage in Windsor

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On 07/10/2018 at 15:01, brommy said:

It would be great if the reason the focus of this chiefly anti-leave thread moving towards details of Tusk’s youth, instead of the deal negotiations, was a sign that a reasonable deal (or ‘fudge’ if one prefers) is nearing or at least still possible.

So the current deal (assuming it's not scuttled by the DUP), it appears that we're staying in the Customs Union in perpetuity (or rather for a time-limited period that doesn't specify a time limit) and keeping our standards, rules and regulations completely aligned with the other 31 countries.

And all we have to give up to keep things pretty much as they are now, is any say at all in the rules that we'd be governed by. 

So I guess it all comes down to each individual's definition of a "reasonable deal".

On the bright side, plenty of Quitters will be able to triumphantly claim next April that things didn't turn out like all those catastrophic predictions said they would.

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39 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

So the current deal (assuming it's not scuttled by the DUP), it appears that we're staying in the Customs Union in perpetuity (or rather for a time-limited period that doesn't specify a time limit) and keeping our standards, rules and regulations completely aligned with the other 31 countries.

And all we have to give up to keep things pretty much as they are now, is any say at all in the rules that we'd be governed by. 

So I guess it all comes down to each individual's definition of a "reasonable deal".

On the bright side, plenty of Quitters will be able to triumphantly claim next April that things didn't turn out like all those catastrophic predictions said they would.

In summary, membership or non-membership of the EU is like supporting Villa - there’s always something to complain about for someone.

:flag:

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9 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Are we back to ‘Brexit in name only’?

As far as I can tell, we're now days away from needing to have decided how this is going. But the options are still everything across the range from staying in the EU, to crashing out and going full Lord of the Flies and resorting to eating the poor and hanging any French that didn't get out in time.

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On 11/10/2018 at 19:18, Enda said:

Irish and Estonians are literally laughing at the UK ... we wouldn't want to move there because of the absolute state of your politics.

The state of our politics is dire.

On 11/10/2018 at 19:27, Enda said:

I'm working in the US and happy here

Surely US politics is even more screwed than the U.K.?

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Another Brexiteer who didn't actually believe in what she was saying and took a side for her own political gain

 

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So now, with my sense of fair play I have to acknowledge that Mogg and Redwood advising their moneyed Clients to get their assets out of Britain weren't being traitors. They were simply ahead of the tory curve.

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5 hours ago, bickster said:

Official UK Government advice to business - Leave the country

 

It's the Government's official version of "if you like the EU so much why not just go and live there".

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The U.S. is threatening to block the U.K. from a 46-nation public procurement agreement, a move that would deny British companies from accessing a near $2 trillion marketplace after leaving the European Union, according to two officials with knowledge of the situation.

The U.K. will apply to rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement, a $1.7 trillion trade accord that governs global appropriation rules, since it will lose its membership after Brexit in March. U.S. negotiators have told their British counterparts that their application is outdated and needs to be revised, said the officials, who asked not to be identified because talks are ongoing.

If blocked from the pact, U.K. companies such as Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Serco Group Plc could lose access to members’ procurement processes, including the $837 billion U.S. market. The U.K. will ask GPA participants to provisionally approve its final offer to join the accord during an Oct. 17 meeting, where any member can block the accession bid. The British side would still have time to improve its offer to allay members’ concerns...

... The U.S. move fits a pattern of trade strategy President Donald Trump’s administration has recently utilized to its benefit, exploiting points of leverage to exact an upper hand in negotiations, even when the party across the table is a close ally. The U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports before negotiating an updated free-trade agreement with Mexico and Canada; and Trump has threatened the EU with levies on its car exports as the two sides deliberate over a new trade pact.

“The U.S. and other major countries see this current period as the best time to try to get concessions from the U.K.,” said David Henig, a director at the European Centre for International Political Economy. “They know the U.K. is preparing for no-deal with the EU, and need to have everything at place in the WTO in that eventuality.”

Markus Gehring, an international trade professor at the University of Cambridge, went further, saying he wasn’t surprised that countries were opposing the U.K.’s offer. “If you can improve your relative negotiation weight why wouldn’t you reject the offer?”

Bloomberg

With friends like these....

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1 minute ago, snowychap said:

Within the cabinet?

you can be quite naive sometimes

Of course not within the cabinet. The country, the EU 27, Sinn Fein and the DUP, Wylie Coyote and the Roadrunner, all these would be reasonable guesses.

The **** cabinet? Get outta here.

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23 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Within the cabinet?

I think where the cabinet is concerned we're looking less at a deal and more at complete implosion, because it's blindingly obvious May will have had to accept what the EU gave her, which'll have the loons eyes swiveling so hard parliament will be a few feet off the ground when they hear it.

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16 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I think where the cabinet is concerned we're looking less at a deal and more at complete implosion, because it's blindingly obvious May will have had to accept what the EU gave her, which'll have the loons eyes swiveling so hard parliament will be a few feet off the ground when they hear it.

The rumour about the DUP potentially voting down the budget in protest could make that vote fascinating.

Something a friend emailed me (hence no link), I make no judgement on the accuracy of his analysis.

Quote

The Speaker and Deputies don't vote, Sinn Féin aren't going to vote and Ian Paisley Jr is still suspended from the House of Commons, there's 638 MPs to vote.

Conservatives have 315. Labour (255) + SNP (35) + Lib Dem (12) + DUP (9) + Plaid (4) + Green (1) = 316. So it's down to the seven independent MPs, do they want a new election or not?

Charlie Elphicke (Dover) - he was elected as a Conservative and despite being suspended from the party has been a loyal Tory in parliament so he'll vote for the budget, that makes it 316-316.
Sylvia Hermon (North Down) - No friend of the Tories or Corbyn, has an interest in the new boundaries not coming in as her seat might then be in danger - she'll vote against [316-317]
Frank Field (Birkenhead) - An election now would mean the end of his parliamentary career, a new election might stop Brexit, Would be inclined to vote to prop up Theresa May [317-317]
John Woodcock (Barrow and Furness) - In a similar political situation to Field, but pro-Europe. It might depend on how ready he is to lose his job, but could also vote with the government [318-317]
Ivan Lewis (Bury South) - If a sitting MP is not a member of the Parliamentary Labour Party, then they cannot be reselected (though the sitting MP can still stand at the open selection) in the case of a snap election, it'll be down to the NEC. I suspect that if he voted down the budget then the leadership would promise to allow him to stand as a Labour candidate [318-318]
Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) - Like Lewis he is in danger of not being a Labour candidate at a snap election but is more of a Corbyn supporter, if Lewis gets a deal, he'll get the same and would maybe vote against the budget even if he doesn't [318-319]
Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam) - In the same boat as Woodcock, clearly he will not be an MP after the next election so does he vote with his heart or his wallet? I think it's a brave man that will turn down £200k of free money so he'll vote to keep that [319-319]

 

 

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I'll just throw Skinner and Hoey in to that mix.

I can see the potential for a small number of Labour votes saving the day for May.

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4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I'll just throw Skinner and Hoey in to that mix.

I can see the potential for a small number of Labour votes saving the day for May.

Maybe. But although they have a history of voting with the Government on Brexit matters, I'm not sure that extends to supporting them on non-Brexit matters.

And while they can (somewhat justifiably) claim that on Brexit votes they are honouring the referendum result, it's a harder argument to make on the budget.

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