The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[StefanAVFC]

9 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Of course it is entirely possible that Brexit will descend into the Seige of Britain 2019, where our once former allies ensure food and medical supplies are withheld until thousands are dying on the streets of Hemel Hempstead whilst being told ‘you’ve only got yourselves to blame’. Or it may be that the country is plunged into some economic abyss and scenes remenicent of the Great Depression of the 30s will be pushed to the fore for the much fabled ‘generations to come’. 

In which case, rest assured, should I make it through, betrayed and disillusioned, I shall ensure my survivor testimony reads ‘ @PompeyVillan I should have heeded your warnings. You were right.’

Just a poor post all round really.

This is why actual debate is impossible.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Just a poor post all round really.

This is why actual debate is impossible.

Clearly it was intended to lighten the tone on the absurdity of everyone trying to foretell the future as fact. And, as stated, that once we have the benefit of hindsight, I would happily come back and say that I got it wrong if need be.

Sorry about the quality though. In future I’ll  make sure I PM you all my posts first you can vet them for me, dobrze? 

[bickster]

2 hours ago, foreveryoung said:

We haven't always been a member of the EU an we have managed. Heath got us in without a referendum in 72,  knowingly even then we would have opposed it.

Were you alive in 1972? I was it was f**king awful

[ml1dch]

47 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Clearly it was intended to lighten the tone on the absurdity of everyone trying to foretell the future as fact. And, as stated, that once we have the benefit of hindsight, I would happily come back and say that I got it wrong if need be

People aren't trying to foretell the future. They're explaining the known consequences of a particular action.

If someone (let's call him Gideon Osbourne) says "if people vote this way then the economic consequences mean that 500,000 people will lose their jobs" then that's a prediction. And not a very good one.

If someone says "if we leave without coming to an alternative arrangement, then we will leave the EASA, and until a new treaty is agreed, then planes will not be taking off or landing because the legal basis for them to do so will not exist" that is the absolute, defined-in-law outcome.

Arrangements might be made which mean that consequence never comes to pass, but until those new arrangement are made then it's not a nebulous, who-can-possibly-tell-what-will-happen situation. You just have to look at what the laws say to find out.

Edited August 4, 2018 by ml1dch

[Enda]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Were you alive in 1972? I was it was f**king awful

Ye first applied to join the EC three years after the Treaty of Rome took effect. You saw the benefits and wanted in immediately.

[AshVilla]

God this thread is hilarious .

Some of the reactions to us leaving are priceless.

The only one that's missing is OH MY GOD WERE ALL GOING TO DIE.

I guess were not close enough to March next year yet to see that one banded about.

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

Some of the reactions to us leaving are priceless.

Perhaps. One question that I keep asking is if leaving is going to be good for ordinary people, or business, or banking, or travel, or any sector of the nation, why are all the people in those areas pleading for the Gov't to either have as soft a Brexit as possible, or not to Leave at all?

If it is going to be good why are a huge list of experts and people involved in all kinds of areas -  Airbus, Jaguar, the NHS, Universities, Science, Technology, Space, Aviation, or Road Hauliers, Nissan.... These people from these areas have all looked into the effects for them and the areas they work in and gone "Bad".

The people saying it will be good are....a minority of politicians, who have demonstrably got all their predictions and promises (where they can be measured so far) completely wrong. Plus of course people who believe those politicians.

The likes of you or me - we can listen and read etc. but less either of us were to devote huge amounts of time and research to understand the complexities, surely all we can do is listen to all the arguments and make a judgement, but if we go just with instinct, or gut feeling, we're making nothing more than a coin flip. Surely better to make the "bet" understanding the conditions and all that?

[bickster]

2 hours ago, Enda said:

Ye first applied to join the EC three years after the Treaty of Rome took effect. You saw the benefits and wanted in immediately.

De Gaulle kept blocking us iirc

[andym]

14 minutes ago, blandy said:

Perhaps. One question that I keep asking is if leaving is going to be good for ordinary people, or business, or banking, or travel, or any sector of the nation, why are all the people in those areas pleading for the Gov't to either have as soft a Brexit as possible, or not to Leave at all?

If it is going to be good why are a huge list of experts and people involved in all kinds of areas -  Airbus, Jaguar, the NHS, Universities, Science, Technology, Space, Aviation, or Road Hauliers, Nissan.... These people from these areas have all looked into the effects for them and the areas they work in and gone "Bad".

The people saying it will be good are....a minority of politicians, who have demonstrably got all their predictions and promises (where they can be measured so far) completely wrong. Plus of course people who believe those politicians.

The likes of you or me - we can listen and read etc. but less either of us were to devote huge amounts of time and research to understand the complexities, surely all we can do is listen to all the arguments and make a judgement, but if we go just with instinct, or gut feeling, we're making nothing more than a coin flip. Surely better to make the "bet" understanding the conditions and all that?

It gets me when all the Brexiteers have a pop at the likes of Jaguar, Airbus etc as 'well they are remainers, of course they are stoking fears'. As though they have some sort of political standpoint that somehow overrides their desire to make money.

And even the arch Brexiteers are now walking back from their initial claims. In two years we've gone from 'this will be easy, we hold all the cards and other counties will be begging us to make a deal', to 'well it won't be a mad max style dystopian future' (David Davis) to 'well we will see the benefits in 50 years'(JRM).

In all actuality i imagine that things will not end up as bad as some of the domesday scenarios currently being predicted, but that will only be because the businesses and experts that Brexiteers so deride will have done a load of work to mitigate the potential for those worst case outcomes. Of course that will mean a lot of money, time and resources spent that could otherwise have been put to better uses to benefit the country, but at least 'we will have taken back control' (despite likely being subject to the rules and adjudications of the WTO)

 

[ml1dch]

45 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

God this thread is hilarious .

Some of the reactions to us leaving are priceless.

The only one that's missing is OH MY GOD WERE ALL GOING TO DIE.

I guess were not close enough to March next year yet to see that one banded about.

You'll be able to use the benefit of your wisdom to explain why they're all wrong then.

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, andym said:

It gets me when all the Brexiteers have a pop at the likes of Jaguar, Airbus etc as 'well they are remainers, of course they are stoking fears'. As though they have some sort of political standpoint that somehow overrides their desire to make money.

And even the arch Brexiteers are now walking back from their initial claims. In two years we've gone from 'this will be easy, we hold all the cards and other counties will be begging us to make a deal', to 'well it won't be a mad max style dystopian future' (David Davis) to 'well we will see the benefits in 50 years'(JRM).

In all actuality i imagine that things will not end up as bad as some of the domesday scenarios currently being predicted, but that will only be because the businesses and experts that Brexiteers so deride will have done a load of work to mitigate the potential for those worst case outcomes. Of course that will mean a lot of money, time and resources spent that could otherwise have been put to better uses to benefit the country, but at least 'we will have taken back control' (despite likely being subject to the rules and adjudications of the WTO)

 

I’m sick of listening to experts and elites I’d rather listen to gobshites who clearly lie on a daily basis

[wazzap24]

37 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

God this thread is hilarious .

Some of the reactions to us leaving are priceless.

The only one that's missing is OH MY GOD WERE ALL GOING TO DIE.

I guess were not close enough to March next year yet to see that one banded about.

Spot on chief! 

All these bleeding remoaners with their 'facts', them experts relying on things like 'analysis' and all those other elitists who just wanna splurt their project fear nonsense all over the common people like the proverbial money shot. 

We be British, we aren't gonna let any of them foreigners dictate what we should be doing in our own blooming country are we!? 

We don't need proper trading agreements, frictionless borders or any of that nonsense, we won't need any of that in good old blighty! The EU will be begging for us back in a week and Trump will be giving us the biggliest bestiest deal ever.  I've been washing my chicken in bleach, just to get an early taste of the good life. 

I for one, am waiting for the day we line all them know-all experts up against a wall and shoot em, whilst Farage leads us into a new glorious era of splendid isolation!

Who cares if food and goods prices go through the roof, who cares if all the racists get the hump when they realise we are going to need more people from the 'Brown' countries to prop up the labour market, Who cares if motorways are turned into lorry parks and industries are thrown into turmoil?! 

Not me, I'll have my blue passport and I'll be buying Grimsby fish, from actual fisherman in Grimsby (born and raised)! I'll holiday in the U.K.  and shout 'geroutta my country' to any immigrunts I see!

Its gonna be amazing ain't it! 

 

[HanoiVillan]

12 hours ago, bickster said:

What do you hope for in this better future? How long into the future do you think it will take to achieve parity on what we’ve lost in the meantime to get to this mythical better place? How many generations will have been harmed to get there and how do you see us solving the problem of the social disruption and inequality that will inevitably be a result of this? Will it have been worth it?

This thread has rather blown up in the last 48 hours, but for me this is the key post. 

It's all very well to say 'well, we'll be better off eventually' but in the long run we're all dead, so who cares really. Most people don't actually want to suffer food shortages, or electricity brown-outs, or the end of cancer treatment, and if these eventualities come to pass as a result of a 'no-deal' Brexit, then the government will ultimately face the consequences of that. However, the human suffering in the meantime is what concerns me. 

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, AshVilla said:

God this thread is hilarious .

Some of the reactions to us leaving are priceless.

The only one that's missing is OH MY GOD WERE ALL GOING TO DIE.

I guess were not close enough to March next year yet to see that one banded about.

of course we won't all die, that's clearly stupid

 

just the ones that need nurses or medicine will die at first

then the ones employed to guard vegetable allotments

then the ones that refuse to worship Ra, as Rees Mogg will become known

[Vive_La_Villa]

Whilst I appriecate the situation is different now to what it was  in 2016.  Many experts and economists also predicted back then that there would be a financial crisis and a deep recession after the vote. 

Instead the growth rate continued to rise. 

[bickster]

20 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Whilst I appriecate the situation is different now to what it was  in 2016.  Many experts and economists also predicted back then that there would be a financial crisis and a deep recession after the vote. 

Instead the growth rate continued to rise. 

And what?

Predicting Stock Market fluctuations has always been guesswork. Telling you what will happen, not might, will, at international borders isn’t guesswork because it’s what happens everywhere that operates under WTO rules already. The procedures are already known, they are just being superimposed on the current infrastructure. 

Anyway, back to my questions, I’m really interested in how your vision of post Brexit Britain pans out, if you’re so confident it will be ok, you must have some idea why and what’s going to happen to make everything a better country otherwise you wouldn’t have the opinion you do surely? Can’t be that hard to answer the questions can it? Reassure us with your vision.

[ml1dch]

44 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Whilst I appriecate the situation is different now to what it was  in 2016.  

Not really. 

There is no reason why this is a terrible idea that wasn't also true two years ago.

Edited August 4, 2018 by ml1dch

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

And what?

Predicting Stock Market fluctuations has always been guesswork. Telling you what will happen, not might, will, at international borders isn’t guesswork because it’s what happens everywhere that operates under WTO rules already. The procedures are already known, they are just being superimposed on the current infrastructure. 

Anyway, back to my questions, I’m really interested in how your vision of post Brexit Britain pans out, if you’re so confident it will be ok, you must have some idea why and what’s going to happen to make everything a better country otherwise you wouldn’t have the opinion you do surely? Can’t be that hard to answer the questions can it? Reassure us with your vision.

I don’t have one Bickster. We will probably see a soft Brexit and then continue as is. The drama will be over. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

59 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Not really. 

There is no reason why this is a terrible idea that wasn't also true two years ago.

The point was the doomsday scenarios may have more substance now than they did back then.

As it turned out they were all wrong back then but now they may be closer to the truth. 

[LondonLax]

No rules changed from the day before to the day after the vote.

The £ dropped in value because the future of UK economy became less certain with a ‘No’ vote but conversely that low pound actually increased the value of the stock market and British exports. 

The situation in March is quite different. That is when Brexit actually occurs. If there is somehow a Norway style ‘soft brexit’ deal agreed the pound will likely go back up again and things will carry on much as they were before the vote. 

However if the UK government cannot agree amongst themselves on a soft Brexit you will likely end up with the ‘No deal’ scenario with potential for total chaos. 

No modern first world economy has ever unilaterally torn up all its free trade agreements with every one of its trading partners before and tried to start from scratch at year zero again.

The results could be quite dramatic to say the least. 

Edited August 4, 2018 by LondonLax