The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

7 hours ago, Genie said:

I said it before, but like the transfer deadline 90% the deals, business and agreements will happen in the last week of the negotiation window.

Is this a Villa or Man City transfer deadline in respect of Brexit ?

[ml1dch]

19 hours ago, Genie said:

So you think we'll be asking for an extension then? Because we've used about 3/4 of our time already and agreed almost nothing.

That's because the two sides hold irreconcilable positions, and have done since the beginning. 

If you think that there will be a last minute agreement and everything will just slot neatly into place, whose position do you think is going to change from it's current one?

What the UK is asking for is the effective breakdown of the Single Market. What the EU is asking for (or rather saying has to be the case for the UK to get what they want) is for the UK to stay in all the institutions that "the people" have told them to get out of. Neither of those things are going to suddenly change whether they discuss it for a week, a year or a decade.

[Genie]

2 hours ago, ml1dch said:

If you think that there will be a last minute agreement and everything will just slot neatly into place, whose position do you think is going to change from it's current one?

I think you and @Chindie got the wrong end of the stick with my post so I apologise. I didn't suggest "everything would be ok", just that as in most negotiations we'll standoff for months and months and find that in the days and hours leading up to deadline agreements will finally get made. Quota's, access, tax rates, benefits etc will get smashed out very late on because of the risk of a "no deal". I predict there will some very late nights in that last fortnight for the politicians.

[Genie]

Re-vote?

Quote

Whistleblower Christopher Wylie has told the European Parliament that the influence of Cambridge Analytica on the Brexit referendum has rendered its result illegitimate.

Wylie, a former employee of data marketing firm, revealed recently how the firm used personal information harvested from millions of Facebook users to build software designed to influence their political choices.

Speaking to MEPs in Brussels on Monday, he said a “privacy crisis” had led the EU to lose one of its largest member states.

“Cambridge Analytica may have dissolved but the European Union and its citizens will feel the impact for a generation,” he said.

“I do not believe Brexit would have happened if it were not for the data targeting technologies and network of actors set up by Cambridge Analytica.

“I also do not believe the Brexit result was won fairly or legitimately.”

Wylie said it is “almost certain” that electoral and data protection rules were flouted by the official Leave campaign, but said the full facts are being obscured by Facebook.

He added: “If this occurred in Nigeria or Zimbabwe, the EU would demand a re-run of the vote. Perhaps we should hold the UK to the same standard.”

More on the link

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/2955001-193617857.html

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

I think you and @Chindie got the wrong end of the stick with my post so I apologise. I didn't suggest "everything would be ok", just that as in most negotiations we'll standoff for months and months and find that in the days and hours leading up to deadline agreements will finally get made. Quota's, access, tax rates, benefits etc will get smashed out very late on because of the risk of a "no deal". I predict there will some very late nights in that last fortnight for the politicians.

I think you are falling for this government narrative that there are actual negotiations taking place, this really isn't the case. The UK say, we want X, Y  and Z. The EU say, this is completely incompatible with the aims of the EU, to get X, Y and Z you must be a member of the single market. The UK say ok them we want X and Y, the EU say .. I think you can guess how this goes on. 

The EU so far has not budged one inch, nor will they. It's not in their interests to. Yes the UK leaving the EU will hurt some member states, slightly nowhere near as much as us leaving will hurt us.

The governments own figures tell us that we'll be bloody suffering within two weeks of leaving with food shortages etc Those same figures say that one of our closest trading partners currently... France won't notice a thing for 6 months, that kind of tells you the scale of the impact on both sides of this, the other countries will notice it even less. By the time France notices we'll be begging them for re-entry (say hello to the Euro and bye bye to Sterling, for that will be one of the prices we pay for our own stupidity)

[Chindie]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

I think you and @Chindie got the wrong end of the stick with my post so I apologise. I didn't suggest "everything would be ok", just that as in most negotiations we'll standoff for months and months and find that in the days and hours leading up to deadline agreements will finally get made. Quota's, access, tax rates, benefits etc will get smashed out very late on because of the risk of a "no deal". I predict there will some very late nights in that last fortnight for the politicians.

There would undoubtedly be a cram as the deadline looms.

The issue though, is that there's an awful lot of stuff that has to be agreed in extreme intricacy that forms groundwork for other stuff to build up on, and that needs to be agreed by all parties. And so on.

It's not really like any negotiation that it can be compared. It's not something where there can be standstill and then the whole thing is pushed through at the last minute.  That's the point that's being made. It's too complicated for that.

At the moment we've not even got to the point where the real nitty gritty is even being discussed.

[chrisp65]

The blue passport etonians and pensioners want a great deal. 

The EU need us to have a bad deal for their very existence to be maintained.

Our hope is that our new trade partners, India, the USA and China will be overly generous to us with their dictated terms and conditions.

I'll just refer you to our current single issue power play: steel. The americans have unilaterally slapped additional duties on us, the Chinese might be about to dump steel on our market, the Indians own our steel industry and have already tried to get out once.

We need to be selling a lot of jam and passports.

[ml1dch]

8 hours ago, Genie said:

I think you and @Chindie got the wrong end of the stick with my post so I apologise. I didn't suggest "everything would be ok", just that as in most negotiations we'll standoff for months and months and find that in the days and hours leading up to deadline agreements will finally get made. Quota's, access, tax rates, benefits etc will get smashed out very late on because of the risk of a "no deal". I predict there will some very late nights in that last fortnight for the politicians.

I'm pretty sure I got the right end of the stick, I just don't think you appreciate that this isn't two parties haggling over who gets what, and that the delay isn't a case of which side blinks first.

Bicks pretty much covered it. This is us saying "we want all this stuff", them saying "to get that, you need to do this, this and this". Us saying "we told people we can't do that". Them saying "fine, that's not our problem". Rinse and repeat once a month for the last year. Nothing has moved.

We are still at Day 1. We're at the absolute beginning of this. And we'll stay there until we either agree to basically stay in, or walk away and ruin the country. Literal food shortages, fuel-rationing, troops on the streets ruin the country. And the people in charge know this (well, some of them), which is why they are petrified of both choices. And they won't make it until they're forced to, either by parliament or the Commission.

Quotas, tax rates, access, benefits etc might as well be in another galaxy.

Edited June 5, 2018 by ml1dch

[Genie]

It’s odd, you seem to agree with what I am saying whilst saying I’m wrong 

The sensationalism is also very funny ref your life after Brexit prediction. 

[ml1dch]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s odd, you seem to agree with what I am saying whilst saying I’m wrong 

The sensationalism is also very funny ref your life after Brexit prediction. 

Apologies if it sounds patronising, but it's not really a prediction. 

It's all there, in black and white in the EU Notices to Stakeholders. One through sixty-six. Two new ones came out today, Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights and Preferential Origins of Goods. They're pretty dry and technical, granted. But they tell you exactly what will happen.

It's an absolute legal consequence of our current position. Now, it might not come to pass. But unless the Government bends until it breaks, that is how this plays out. Not with Davis and Barnier discussing quotas at the end of March next year until they pop out at 10pm sharing a cigar and a back-slap

On the bright side, the Government has capitulated every step of the way so far when it's mattered. So you'll probably be fine.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, ml1dch said:

But unless the Government bends until it breaks, that is how this plays out.

This is what I was getting at, if a no deal is really that bad then “we’ll” be agreeing to anything and everything in those final days to avoid it. 23 months of posturing and then 4 weeks of bending over.

[ml1dch]

Well, my apologies if I've misunderstood your position. But I'm sure you can appreciate that from a reader's position "23 months of posturing and then 4 weeks of bending over" and "just that as in most negotiations we'll standoff for months and months and find that in the days and hours leading up to deadline agreements will finally get made" aren't exactly the same thing  

[Chindie]

Peston speculating Davis will quit tomorrow.

Not that anyone would notice.

[snowychap]

15 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Peston speculating Davis will quit tomorrow.

Not that anyone would notice.

Peston just said on the news that it's 50/50 that he goes.

Well, of course it is. He either does or he doesn't.

[Chindie]

I'll go with he won't.

He's a politician. The status of being a minister will, especially such a 'history making' one (for all the wrong reasons of course...) will be too much to give up. Plus he currently has a **** cushy life. He doesn't have to do anything. He can even mislead parliament with impunity.

[chrisp65]

Davis is currently negotiating to both resign and stay in post for a fixed flexible period. The back stop will be that if the cat is dead, he'll ask to be sacked so he can resign and the cat will then be alive. 

[HanoiVillan]

He's a serial resigner, so I don't think it would be much of a surprise if he went. He certainly seemed to be laying the groundwork yesterday, though I suppose he might get cold feet at the last minute. 

Could anyone possibly be doing a worse job than he is anyway?

[bickster]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Could anyone possibly be doing a worse job than he is anyway?

Little Lord Mogg would be far worse but I get your point

 

[ml1dch]

If he can hold off until Tuesday then he can do it to celebrate the 10th anniversary of his previous resignation.

Back then it was partly in protest at the idea that foreign nationals should be registered and carry ID cards, which he thought was the start of the path to a national database.

Now he wants to be able to register non-UK EU nationals and for them to carry ID cards. 

His brain must be a terribly muddled place to be.

[HanoiVillan]

8 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

If he can hold off until Tuesday then he can do it to celebrate the 10th anniversary of his previous resignation.

Back then it was partly in protest at the idea that foreign nationals should be registered and carry ID cards, which he thought was the start of the path to a national database.

Now he wants to be able to register non-UK EU nationals and for them to carry ID cards. 

His brain must be a terribly muddled place to be.

Yes, I remember naively thinking that that was some form of stand on the principles.