The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[blandy]

The car thing. There are loads of cars made in the uk. I think that was the point the loony was making  i.e. Not German, so nissans, toyotas, jaguars etc. 

[Enda]

I know the British public have had enough of experts, especially those with foreign names, but this academic paper is of interest.

Quote

 

The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects

This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers. We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trade in intermediates, as in Costinot and Rodrıguez-Clare (2014). We simulate a range of counterfactuals reflecting alternative options for EU-UK relations following Brexit. Welfare losses for the average UK household are 1.3% if the UK remains in the EU’s Single Market like Norway (a “soft Brexit”). Losses rise to 2.7% if the UK trades with the EU under World Trade Organization rules (a “hard Brexit”). A reduced form approach that captures the dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity more than triples these losses and implies a decline in average income per capita of between 6.3% and 9.4%, partly via falls in foreign investment. These negative effects are widely shared across the entire income distribution and are unlikely to be offset from new trade deals.

 

And, no, before anyone says "but but but but economists predicted a recession!", these are not short-term forecasts based on assumptions about what happens to consumer sentiment. These forecasts are based on how firms reacted to previous changes in prices/taxes/tariffs, assuming that their sensitivity to price remains roughly the same, and teasing out the implications for hard versus soft Brexit, etc.

[tonyh29]

On ‎22‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 16:53, Chindie said:

On the other, in light of Brexit, it's perfect that one of the few British car brands is so backwards they still use wood frames.

 

they probably said that about the Mosquito but it was still superior enough for Goring to declare They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops

[Chindie]

...What's that got to do with the price of fish?

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, Chindie said:

...What's that got to do with the price of fish?

The price of fish should go down as there'll be lots more of it  

[TrentVilla]

9 minutes ago, Chindie said:

...What's that got to do with the price of fish?

Is that in €'s?

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, TrentVilla said:

Is that in €'s?

Reichsmark , alas our backward country with their little wooden frames couldn't compete  

[Enda]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

alas our backward country with their little wooden frames couldn't compete  

Nobody denies the UK could produce a decent car (or whatever else) if you set your minds to it.

Rather, it's that nobody can specialize in everything. Shifting resources to start building cars would necessarily detract from something else that you lot are already good at.

[blandy]

10 hours ago, Enda said:

Nobody denies the UK could produce a decent car (or whatever else) if you set your minds to it.

Rather, it's that nobody can specialize in everything. Shifting resources to start building cars would necessarily detract from something else that you lot are already good at.

We build more cars here than we've ever done and the factories are efficient. We have unfettered access, for the moment, to the single market. We are good at making and selling cars. As we know, Nissan and the rest very much regard the single market as key to business and so to the jobs of all the workers at their factories and those of their suppliers etc.

[blandy]

the links in the twit are (IMO) well worth a read.

 

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

On 4/25/2017 at 06:09, blandy said:

We build more cars here than we've ever done and the factories are efficient. We have unfettered access, for the moment, to the single market. We are good at making and selling cars. As we know, Nissan and the rest very much regard the single market as key to business and so to the jobs of all the workers at their factories and those of their suppliers etc.

Definitely correct. My dad works in parts manufacturing for a now American company and it's vital. However; for the last decade he's been told the plant is moving so historically there is a little bit of 'all talk'. So far so good and they won some new orders, though brexit is clearly making companies think tax advantages abroad.

Efficiency is definitely one important factor in why they are staying however I am going to question where you got your stats from. To me it seems 2000 was the glory year with car ownership in the 25m mark. We have a lot more cars on our and foreign roads, so perhaps the stats aren't actually all that great?

As with San Fran and the EV car fiasco, Japanese companies are already moving in to try and realise a marketplace post-Brexit. 

Edited April 27, 2017 by itdoesntmatterwhatthissay

[Chindie]

@magnkarl

Quote

What I am wondering is how Britain are going to deal with the EFTA agreement. Surely the Swiss\Norwegian\Icelandic people in Britain fall into a complete new category? EFTA is not the same as EEA - is it?

I'm not sure what you think there will be an issue of?

The EEA is effectively shorthand for 'EU members and EFTA members (except Switzerland)'. Any negotiation, and ultimately agreement, would understand this, or refer to each separately. I don't think there is any issue at all.

[HanoiVillan]

Interesting theory:

 

[TrentVilla]

 

So now the EU wants £100m and not to give us any of the assets. That is one one sided divorce, it's not like we screwed around all we did was flirt with the US a bit.

[PieFacE]

So I just read the Brexit divorce bill could be £84bn, I think we should spend that on the NHS instead...

Edited May 3, 2017 by PieFacE

[Awol]

2 hours ago, TrentVilla said:

 

So now the EU wants £100m and not to give us any of the assets. That is one one sided divorce, it's not like we screwed around all we did was flirt with the US a bit.

As predicted they also want the ECJ to adjudicate any disputes for EU citizens in the UK, which is a non-starter. 

[TrentVilla]

1 hour ago, PieFacE said:

So I just read the Brexit divorce bill could be £84bn, I think we should spend that on the NHS instead...

You should stick that on a bus...

[snowychap]

Grauniad:

 

Quote

The European court of justice has raised a ray of hope for British trade negotiators with a surprise ruling that will make it harder for national parliaments to block key components of any future post-Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.

In a long-awaited test case that had been expected to complicate the Brexit process, the court instead ruled that EU officials had exclusive powers to negotiate international trade deals without ratification by national and regional parliaments.

Ratification is still required in specific areas, such as inward investment and dispute resolution, but the definition of the EU “competences” is much broader than had been expected.

The ECJ ruling stems from a request by the European commission to rule on its authority over a trade deal between the EU and Singapore, but the case took on much wider importance after the Brexit vote.

Getting a deal approved in national parliaments could add five years to the process, leaving the risk that one single national or regional body could block full agreement – a difficulty hinted at last year when the Walloon regional parliament threatened to veto an EU-Canada trade deal that had been seven years in the making.

The ECJ ruling concerning the EU deal with Singapore was in part a victory for EU institutions and is likely to help the British government. This is because the court also decided the power to negotiate the core of a trade agreement – goods, services and public procurement – is allowed without individual national consultation.

This means the most important parts of a post-Brexit free-trade deal could enter into force without the approval of national parliaments.

...more on link

 

[HanoiVillan]

Seems like good news for us, but pretty disappointing for citizens of EU nations. Whole new level of 'democratic deficit' there. 

[TrentVilla]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

Grauniad:

 

 

Another step towards the Federal Europe then.