StefanAVFC Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: While it's obviously not ideal to be risking anything at all on this - and in fact we're risking lots - I imagine Boris will cave and apply for an extension to avoid a no deal outcome. Another ditch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: While it's obviously not ideal to be risking anything at all on this - and in fact we're risking lots - I imagine Boris will cave and apply for an extension to avoid a no deal outcome. Article 132 para 1: Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single decision extending the transition period for up to 1 or 2 years. Edited November 11, 2019 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 11, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: Yes, I'm trying to be upbeat, but I think we are heading for the exit door before the 31st of Jan now. Because of the Farage Corp decision today? I think he's guaranteed a hung parliament, he certainly hasn't gifted the Tories a government 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, bickster said: Because of the Farage Corp decision today? I think he's guaranteed a hung parliament, he certainly hasn't gifted the Tories a government There are a lot of Tory voters who will go Lib Dem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, snowychap said: Article 132 para 1: Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single decision extending the transition period for up to 1 or 2 years. Sorry if I'm being dense, but I'm not sure what point you're making here snowy? FWIW, I'm speculating that he will ask the Joint Committee to take that decision, before 1st July 2020. No Deal hasn't got any less disastrous, and the UK economy will be no better prepared for it by June next year. As I said, I think it's a thin reed to hang hopes on, and obviously it would be better for people to vote for parties that won't leave the threat of No Deal hanging over us. However, I sadly think we're cruising for a small but real Tory majority as an outcome in this election. 2 hours ago, bickster said: Because of the Farage Corp decision today? I think he's guaranteed a hung parliament, he certainly hasn't gifted the Tories a government Not especially because of today, though obviously it helps the Tories at the margins, but because this election hasn't had the feel of a campaign like 2017 yet. The Tories seem to be in a significant polling lead, Johnson has somehow actually improved his personal ratings during the last few weeks, and I'm worried that Labour will lose 20-30 constituencies to the Tories. Obviously I hope I'm wrong. Edited November 11, 2019 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: Sorry if I'm being dense, but I'm not sure what point you're making here snowy? FWIW, I'm speculating that he will ask the Joint Committee to take that decision, before 1st July 2020. I was just pointing out that the decision to extend (once and for a specific period) must be taken six months before the deadline Johnson has imposed upon himself and his government (assuming a Tory majority). If there's a Tory majority government, there isn't going to be any 'it was the Parliament that made me' get out available. He's going to have to say to the country - but most importantly to his own party and especially the ERGist wing (possibly by then the mainstream in the party) - that he's agreed to this six months in advance of the end of the transition period. At the very least this says to them that he can't see himself and his government being able to manage to carry out the thing on which they campaigned to win the election, that he has no confidence that an FTA will be agreed by the end of 2020. At most, it may say to that particular group (the ERGs) that the thing that may have sold the whole shenanigans to them (that the WA was just a very short term step on the road to Valhalla) was always just another one of Johnson's lies. Now, you may well be right that he will or would do this but I can't see how that works well for him at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, snowychap said: If there's a Tory majority government, there isn't going to be any 'it was the Parliament that made me' get out available. He's going to have to say to the country - but most importantly to his own party and especially the ERGist wing (possibly by then the mainstream in the party) - that he's agreed to this six months in advance of the end of the transition period. At the very least this says to them that he can't see himself and his government being able to manage to carry out the thing on which they campaigned to win the election, that he has no confidence that an FTA will be agreed by the end of 2020. At most, it may say to that particular group (the ERGs) that the thing that may have sold the whole shenanigans to them (that the WA was just a very short term step on the road to Valhalla) was always just another one of Johnson's lies. Now, you may well be right that he will or would do this but I can't see how that works well for him at all. I agree completely. But that seems like he will be stuck between a rock and a hard place; if backing down and asking for an extension to the transition damages him with the ERG and leavers more broadly, recklessly ploughing into a No Deal would inevitably damage him with the general public, and as far as I understand, most experts think we will be nowhere near agreeing the Future Relationship by June. Now, maybe that's wrong, and actually we'll be ready, and in that case the dilemma goes away, but if it doesn't he will have to choose one of those two unpalatable options, and I think he'll conclude that the former is less damaging (and also, he will be fully invested in 'his' negotiations by then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I agree completely. But that seems like he will be stuck between a rock and a hard place; if backing down and asking for an extension to the transition damages him with the ERG and leavers more broadly, recklessly ploughing into a No Deal would inevitably damage him with the general public, and as far as I understand, most experts think we will be nowhere near agreeing the Future Relationship by June. Now, maybe that's wrong, and actually we'll be ready, and in that case the dilemma goes away, but if it doesn't he will have to choose one of those two unpalatable options, and I think he'll conclude that the former is less damaging (and also, he will be fully invested in 'his' negotiations by then). Is it a rock and a hard place? At the time when he'd need to be making a choice, he wouldn't be ploughing recklessly in to no deal. He'd merely be saying that there's still six months to go, he has no intention of extending anything, an extension is completely unnecessary and that, "We'll be leaving the EU good and proper on the 31st of December with a 'best in class, superduper' FTA." Bluster, bluster, bluster and with no exogenous force to get him to act, I don't see him acting. He'd be running the same line as he has for the last few months but without the help of something like the Benn Act or the provisions of the A50 process. Perhaps, the Joint Committee (or the UK and EU separately to the Committee) might cobble something together in terms of a new extension provision after the deadline has long passed but I wouldn't care to speculate as to whether that's even possible let alone likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, snowychap said: Is it a rock and a hard place? At the time when he'd need to be making a choice, he wouldn't be ploughing recklessly in to no deal. He'd merely be saying that there's still six months to go, he has no intention of extending anything, an extension is completely unnecessary and that, "We'll be leaving the EU good and proper on the 31st of December with a 'best in class, superduper' FTA." Bluster, bluster, bluster and with no exogenous force to get him to act, I don't see him acting. He'd be running the same line as he has for the last few months but without the help of something like the Benn Act or the provisions of the A50 process. Perhaps, the Joint Committee (or the UK and EU separately to the Committee) might cobble something together in terms of a new extension provision after the deadline has long passed but I wouldn't care to speculate as to whether that's even possible let alone likely. My hope is that he will be 'committed' to his negotiations in the way that May was with her WA. He will go into the year riding a high, have a big 'leaving the EU' fuss/independence day whatever, then pass the WA which the media will naturally fawn over, saying he has done what nobody else could possibly have done blah blah blah. At that point, he will have a lot of credibility with leavers, and he might be able to justify the climbdown (after months of bluster which I agree are inevitable) on the basis that his Future Relationship is so wonderful that it's worth one final delay for. Of course I'm just guessing, and your scenario is absolutely plausible too. I guess I'm just trying to be 'optimistic'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 34 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: My hope is that he will be 'committed' to his negotiations in the way that May was with her WA. He will go into the year riding a high, have a big 'leaving the EU' fuss/independence day whatever, then pass the WA which the media will naturally fawn over, saying he has done what nobody else could possibly have done blah blah blah. At that point, he will have a lot of credibility with leavers, and he might be able to justify the climbdown (after months of bluster which I agree are inevitable) on the basis that his Future Relationship is so wonderful that it's worth one final delay for. Of course I'm just guessing, and your scenario is absolutely plausible too. I guess I'm just trying to be 'optimistic'. I don't see your scenario as particularly optimistic (and I'm assuming you don't by the quotation marks). Is there not the possibility that an extension allows more time for a trade deal with another country to scupper negotiations with the EU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 12, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 We're where we are because of - May's red lines and ending FoM - Moving of the goalposts so far that even Boris' hard Brexit is 'not Brexit'. The population don't mind FoM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 13, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 13, 2019 Have some diesel substitute... Quote Tesla Gigafactory Europe to be built in Germany, not UK, as Elon Musk blames Brexit uncertainty ... However, speaking exclusively to Auto Express after making the announcement, Musk blamed Brexit uncertainty on why the UK wasn’t considered for the new site: “Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” Musk said. Brexit might have something to do with Musk’s change of heart over the R&D centre, too. Back in 2014, he told Auto Express that he planned to build an R&D base in the UK. Those plans have since been shelved. That bastion of pinko thinking and left wing lunacy Auto Express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Five Ken McNaughts Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 On 9 November 2019 at 16:51, NurembergVillan said: Shame you selected my post to highlight, as it was related to Windrush and not Brexit. My apologies @NurembergVillan. You are quite right. I saw your comment about immigration decisions in this thread and didn’t read back far enough to see it was actually related to Windrush. My fault entirely. I’m not sure if there is an “average Brexiteer”, @mjmooney. No more than an “average Remainer”. Obviously, the stereotype for each side has been rammed down everyone’s throats – bigoted knuckle-dragger vs out-of-touch metropolitan elitist. Reductive and divisive cartoons in my opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, Five Ken McNaughts said: My apologies @NurembergVillan. You are quite right. I saw your comment about immigration decisions in this thread and didn’t read back far enough to see it was actually related to Windrush. My fault entirely. I’m not sure if there is an “average Brexiteer”, @mjmooney. No more than an “average Remainer”. Obviously, the stereotype for each side has been rammed down everyone’s throats – bigoted knuckle-dragger vs out-of-touch metropolitan elitist. Reductive and divisive cartoons in my opinion. There isn't an average whatever, but the stats shows trends about 'more likely' on each side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Davkaus Posted November 13, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted November 13, 2019 6 hours ago, bickster said: Have some diesel substitute... That bastion of pinko thinking and left wing lunacy Auto Express More german cars for them to be desperate to sell us. Playing right into our hands. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 22 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: We're where we are because of - May's red lines and ending FoM - Moving of the goalposts so far that even Boris' hard Brexit is 'not Brexit'. The population don't mind FoM... I thought this was one of the main reasons a lot of people voted leave. ‘’Get back control of our borders’’ and all that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 13, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I thought this was one of the main reasons a lot of people voted leave. ‘’Get back control of our borders’’ and all that? Guess what? opinions change! There has been a dramatic shift in public opinion on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, bickster said: Guess what? opinions change! There has been a dramatic shift in public opinion on this Well if that’s true, (and I think it is), there will be a lot more ‘tactical voting’ then people thing. 28-1 on a Labour majority now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 There has been a big shift in sentiment on immigration, but not *that* big. It's a freak result that appears to have come from the question wording. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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