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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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22 minutes ago, Awol said:

I don’t really care what he believes in his heart of hearts, it’s not a theological test. The simple fact is he led the Leave campaign, won the referendum, became PM & now has a deal that - at the least - removed the backstop. 

Objectively that’s a pretty good effort. 
 

That's a pretty bold use of "objectively".

The backstop is no longer there because they've just decided to turn the "temporary" features of the insurance policy into the permanent status quo.

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44 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Sorry for spamming but stories coming fast.

What an insult to British parliamentary sovereignty that would be. I thought we were leaving to grant sovereignty to our parliament. Not remove it and make the Government absolute? 

Confirmed

clearings in the woods.

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19 minutes ago, Awol said:

If you prefer. Fact is May said the withdrawal agreement couldn’t be reopened. So did Brussels, Dublin, Paris & Berlin. Not only has it been reopened but the backstop has been removed which the same bunch of people said could never happen. 
 

I don’t like Johnson either, he’s a giant bell. But, he’s done the things that for last two years we’ve all been told couldn’t be done. That’s pretty good going, posh boy or not. 

Maybe so but fudging something through for the sake of a few hours kudos isn't the same thing as actually agreeing a legally ratified deal.

Let's see where this all ends up because I'd suggest it's more likely to end up in the bin than anywhere else.

 

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4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

That's a pretty bold use of "objectively".

The backstop is no longer there because they've just decided to turn the "temporary" features of the insurance policy into the permanent status quo.

I don’t think that’s correct - but haven’t read the 64 page pdf yet! It seems that: 

1) NI stays in UK customs union, so benefits from future UK trade deals with RoW.

2) NI continues to apply EU rules and regs that ensure no hard border in Ireland.

3) Every four years Stormont gets the chance to opt out of EU alignment by a simple majority vote - meeting the consent mechanism & democratic legitimacy in NI. 
 

The problem with 3 is not meeting the double majority required for constitutional change in NI under the GFA, so it may fall under legal challenge anyway. 
 

Conclusion: dunno yet. 

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6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Confirmed

clearings in the woods.

Tories: ''Leave so we can have sovereignty from the EU!'' 

Also Tories: ''Let's ask the EU to block the parliaments sovereignty!'' 

Who buys this bullshit? 

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Just now, bannedfromHandV said:

Let's see where this all ends up because I'd suggest it's more likely to end up in the bin than anywhere else.

Very possibly. I can’t see our Remain Parliament passing any form of deal. Will likely take a GE now to get to a resolution, but even then it’s not guaranteed unless Johnson gets a majority. 

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22 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

his deal is hard Brexit with a border down the Irish sea.

i'm only skimming it at this stage   ,but  unless I'm getting the wrong end of it  (which is highly possibly)  ,  it appears we have a declaration on :

A free trade agreement ( which  also means we are part of the EU- Japan deal , as per the Japanese comments on the deal  ) with no tariffs

No visa requirements for short term visits to the EU  , business and longer term tbc

A commitment to discuss welfare agreements

Access to the EU research fund

Participation in Union programs

Exchange of ideas in areas of shared interest

close and structured cooperation on regulatory areas

Agreement on Air traffic (CATA) *

Agreement on Road & rail transport  *

Agreement on fishing rights *

(i think these are subject to further agreement going forward)

 

 I'll be honest , that doesn't read like a hard Brexit so far  , if anything it's almost the softest Brexit imaginable 

 

 

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Just now, Mic09 said:

Tories: ''Leave so we can have sovereignty from the EU!'' 

Also Tories: ''Let's ask the EU to block the parliaments sovereignty!'' 

Who buys this bullshit? 

The EU can’t block the HoC sovereignty, neither can the Benn Act can’t instruct the EU in what to do. 

Only the UK government can negotiate international treaties, our MPs think otherwise but they are wrong - as the EU well knows. 

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20 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

What are you talking about? :D 

I want to remain, or a deal that actually fulfills 52-48 as an outcome (like Norway). I've given up on the 2nd option, but the 1st is possible with a confirmatory vote on this deal. Politicians have been allowed to change their minds numerous times, but we can't have another say, 3.5 years later?

This deal is hard Brexit with a border down the Irish sea.

Thanks for clarifying your point. Let's be realistic even if this was a good option they won't go for it. The DUP will never agree to that.  

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For those trying to predict votes on Saturday, probably six marginal groups of MPs. They're not all of the same size, and the pro side need fewer of them than the anti side:

1) The DUP

2) 21 Tories expelled by Johnson

3) Labour members leaving at the next election

4) Labour leavers (predominantly, the 19 MPs who wrote the letter saying they could be persuaded to vote for a deal)

5) The Lib Dems

6) The Odd Ones Out

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7 minutes ago, Awol said:

Very possibly. I can’t see our Remain Parliament passing any form of deal. Will likely take a GE now to get to a resolution, but even then it’s not guaranteed unless Johnson gets a majority. 

He will win a majority if Corbyn is leader of labour. 

Then he can do as he pleases. Personally this deal isn't perfect and not great but if it was either this or no deal id go for this.

In so sick of this brexit I just a solution do w ecan concentrate on the main things in our country like the mess the nhs is in, knife crime, the youth problem and the cost of living. 

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4 minutes ago, Awol said:

Very possibly. I can’t see our Remain Parliament passing any form of deal. Will likely take a GE now to get to a resolution, but even then it’s not guaranteed unless Johnson gets a majority. 

If it doesn't pass, I reckon it makes an election a lot harder for him. Previously he was able to run on a "do or die, get out whatever it takes" platform. 

Now that he has something  that he needs to defend and that can be scrutinized, I'm not sure that's his home territory. 

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3 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

He will win a majority if Corbyn is leader of labour. 

Then he can do as he pleases. Personally this deal isn't perfect and not great but if it was either this or no deal id go for this.

In so sick of this brexit I just a solution do w ecan concentrate on the main things in our country like the mess the nhs is in, knife crime, the youth problem and the cost of living. 

Dem agreeing a deal doesn't end Brexit. 

The only way we can move on in the short term is to revoke. Any sort of Brexit means disruption and what ifs for the next few years. 

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5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

4) Labour leavers (predominantly, the 19 MPs who wrote the letter saying they could be persuaded to vote for a deal)

I read an article last night that suggested only 8 of them might vote for the deal ( based on the leaks presumably)

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I think enough Labour MPs will realise that if they don't vote for it, there'll be a general election with a big Johnson majority and then something potentially far worse will go through.

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2 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

If it doesn't pass, I reckon it makes an election a lot harder for him. Previously he was able to run on a "do or die, get out whatever it takes" platform. 

Now that he has something  that he needs to defend and that can be scrutinized, I'm not sure that's his home territory. 

Take your point, but having now renegotiated a deal (despite all supposedly informed commentary to the contrary) if it's then blocked by Parliament I reckon he can build a winning campaign on that. 
 

Parliament Vs the People has been Cummings strategy all along. With the Jews best mate leading the opposition I think Johnson has a very good chance. 
 

The SNP are gagging for a GE too so I think he’ll get the numbers for it. 

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20 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I read an article last night that suggested only 8 of them might vote for the deal ( based on the leaks presumably)

Sounds about right, more likely a touch on the high side if anything. Their letter contained a number of red lines, which are broken by this deal, so you wouldn't expect many of them to vote for it. Group 3 in my list above are more likely, though there are a lot fewer of them. 

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21 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I'm going to go to my phone provider and offer to pay them 20 quid more a month for the same minutes, data and texts then boast that I was able to renegotiate my deal with them. 

Wow, did you think of that all by yourself?  I think I've seen gyms, broadband and Sky TV mentioned on twitter so far today, and to be honest for a lot of the last three years, but anyway, well done for such an original quip.

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2 minutes ago, Risso said:

Wow, did you think of that all by yourself?  I think I've seen gyms, broadband and Sky TV mentioned on twitter so far today, and to be honest for a lot of the last three years, but anyway, well done for such an original quip.

Yes, thanks. I was really proud of it :) 

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